Each week in this space, we’ll be taking a look back at Sunday’s games to find five of the most important or most interesting stats for fantasy football owners heading into the following week. With 15 of 16 games from Week 14 in the books, here are the five stats you need to know:
1. In the history of the NFL, there have only been 89 different running backs and 171 instances of a running back totaling at least 32 carries in a single game. LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore both joined that list Sunday after combined for 68 carries in a game with heavy snow and poor visibility in Buffalo. Keep in mind, quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett (22) and Nathan Peterman (10) combined for just 32 pass attempts, with Joe Webb adding six more pass attempts in relief of Peterman. Gore also became the first running back to total over 30 carries and just the third to total over 100 rushing yards at age 34 or older.
If there’s a fantasy takeaway from these stats, it’s that we should always factor in extreme weather in our analysis. In extreme cases of snow or wind, it makes sense to downgrade passing options and upgrade running games.
2. Since Week 11, Jamaal Williams ranks either second or third among running backs in snap share (81 percent), fantasy points (93), yards (467), and opportunities (94). In Week 14, he saw 88 percent of the team's running back snaps, 15 of 19 carries, and all seven of the team's running back targets, totaling 24.8 fantasy points.
Despite fears that fellow rookie Aaron Jones might turn this into a committee, Williams appears to be locked into a bell-cow role. Given how well he’s produced on this volume, I’d be starting him as an RB1 until proven otherwise.
3. In Week 14, DeAndre Hopkins saw 15 targets, catching 11 for 151 yards and two scores. He led all wide receivers in fantasy points, despite third-string quarterback T.J. Yates playing on 63 percent of the team's snaps.
I went to a small private school in the eighth grade. I was about 15 inches shorter than I am now, but was still the second-best basketball player on my team. I was also terrible by league-wide standards. We lost almost every game we played that year, but had one really good player named Eric who was 6-foot-2 and weighed at least twice as much as me. He would score about 90 percent of our points every game. Our coach only ever called one play: “Get the ball to Eric.” I feel like that’s how Bill O’Brien has been calling plays for the Texans this season: “Get the ball to Hopkins.”
Last year there were only three receivers with a target market share of at least 26 percent. Remarkably, Hopkins has a target market share of at least 26 percent with six different Houston quarterbacks since 2014. The only quarterback to not qualify was Brock Osweiler, who started for the Texans in Hopkins’ disappointing 2016 season. Unless Osweiler is the starting quarterback, I think it’s safe to say Hopkins is quarterback-proof, and obviously, an every-week must-start. Given his production and the talent-level of the quarterbacks he’s been saddled with throughout his career, there’s also a strong case to be made that he might be one of the three best wide receivers in the NFL.
4. In Week 14, Travis Kelce totaled 23.5 expected fantasy points, but scored only 14.4. Kelce had two touchdown catches overturned — one when he was declared down at the 1-yard line and the other due to penalty. He also dropped a likely touchdown pass at the 8-yard line.
That’s potentially an 18-point swing working against Kelce owners. If you were like me and also had plenty of Alex Smith/Kelce DFS stacks, it’s at least 30 points. This was definitely very frustrating for fantasy owners, but unfortunate or fluky events happen every week in the NFL. Over a long enough timespan these numbers will start to even out. Kelce still ranks top-10 among all receivers in both expected and actual fantasy points since Week 8. He’s obviously a top-three tight end every week, and hopefully he’ll get some luckier breaks next week.
5. Antonio Brown currently holds the record for most receiving yards over any consecutive five-season stretch. He has 7,824 yards since 2013, and with three games still left to go in 2017. The previous record hold was Marvin Harrison with 7,594.
When trying to make the case for a player being worthy of the Hall of Fame, it’s not enough to just look at their total stats. I’ll also look at their “peak,” or their best consecutive three-season stretch, as well as their total five best seasons throughout their career. Otherwise, certain players get a boost due to durability, though they may never have actually been dominant. In the case of Brown, we have one of the greatest and most dominant five-season stretches in the history of football. Of course, if we era-adjust or factor in touchdowns, things likely tilt again toward Jerry Rice’s favor. Still, I consider myself lucky to be able to watch Brown, an all-time great and likely Hall of Fame wide receiver in the prime of his career.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.