• A done deal? Caleb Williams to the Chicago Bears at No. 1 overall is the most common selection in PFF's mock draft simulator.
• Will Washington go with Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels? LSU’s Jayden Daniels is the slight betting favorite to be drafted at No. 2, but Commanders drafters overwhelmingly prefer to select North Carolina’s Drake Maye here.
• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.
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With the 2024 NFL Draft less than a month away, we can use PFF's mock draft simulator to find patterns around what fans do when they draft for their favorite teams.
While this won't necessarily predict how the draft will go, it will give an indication of the players being targeted by certain fan bases.
Here are the 10 most common player-team pairings, along with five observations from the data.
The top 10 player-team pairings
- QB Caleb Williams, USC → Chicago Bears
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State → Arizona Cardinals
- QB Drake Maye, North Carolina → Washington Commanders
- S Tyler Nubin, Minnesota → Green Bay Packers
- QB Jayden Daniels, LSU → New England Patriots
- C Jackson Powers-Johnson, Oregon → Pittsburgh Steelers
- QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan → Minnesota Vikings
- OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame → Tennessee Titans
- EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama → Atlanta Falcons
- CB Max Melton, Rutgers → Green Bay Packers
Byron Murphy II is a sleeper pick for the Chicago Bears at No. 9 overall
Caleb Williams comes off the board most often for the Chicago Bears at No. 1 overall, but it gets interesting after that.
While Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze is the most popular choice at No. 9, Texas interior defender Byron Murphy II, Alabama edge defender Dallas Turner and Florida State edge defender Jared Verse are also coming off the board at No. 9 or later via a trade-down.
Murphy would give the Bears a pass-rushing presence on the interior, coming off a season where he won 19.6% of his pass-rush reps.
Michael Penix Jr. is a Las Vegas Raiders favorite
Picking at No. 13 overall, the Raiders would seem to be out of the running for the fourth — and possibly even fifth — quarterback option in the class.
With that being the case, Raiders mock drafters turn their attention to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. either in the second round or by trading back up into the first.
Penix is coming off his best season in college. He earned a 90.5 PFF passing grade and produced a 7.3% big-time throw rate.
Pittsburgh Steelers drafters want Jackson Powers-Johnson in Round 1 or Sedrick Van Pran later in the draft
It’s no surprise that people drafting for the Pittsburgh Steelers go for the Oregon center in the first round. That pick is actually the second-most-common pick outside the top five selections.
When drafters don't get Powers-Johnson in Round 1, they tend to select either West Virginia’s Zach Frazier in Round 2 or Georgia‘s Sedrick Van Pran in Round 2 or 3.
Last season, Van Pran earned a 75.4 run-blocking grade on zone runs and an 81.5 pass-blocking grade. He allowed 13 total pressures from 485 pass-blocking snaps.
Jackson Powers-Johnson is not the most drafted player in round one for the Seattle Seahawks
Powers-Johnson is one of the most popular Seahawks picks, but he’s not the most popular. That honor falls to Florida State edge defender Jared Verse, with Seattle drafters also targeting Alabama’s Dallas Turner and UCLA’s Laiatu Latu.
Verse, the 17th-ranked player on the PFF big board, earned an 80.0-plus PFF grade in each of the past three seasons.
Washington Commanders drafters want Drake Maye over Jayden Daniels
With the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft seemingly a done deal, the Washington Commanders‘ decision with the second overall pick is now a source of great intrigue.
LSU’s Jayden Daniels is the slight betting favorite to be drafted at No. 2, but Commanders mock drafters overwhelmingly prefer to select North Carolina’s Drake Maye here.
Maye, who earned PFF grades above 90.0 in each of the past two seasons, has been selected at No. 2 overall almost 20,000 more times than Daniels at this point in the offseason.
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