• McCarthy excels when throwing over the middle: On those throws in 2023, he earned a 91.2 passing grade and recorded an 85.6% adjusted completion percentage.
• Accuracy outside the numbers is the top concern: McCarthy recorded a 27.1% uncatchable throw rate on such throws in 2023, ranking 48th out of 105 eligible FBS quarterbacks.
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PFF Grades and Stats
- 90.8 overall grade
- 5.9% big-time throw rate
- 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate
- 80.0% adjusted completion rate
- 16.8% pressure-to-sack rate
- 90.6 PFF clean-pocket grade
- 75.8 PFF pressured grade
Background
J.J. McCarthy, 21, is a 6-foot-3, 202-pound quarterback out of Michigan. McCarthy spent his entire college career with the Wolverines and took over as a starter in 2022. He helped lead Michigan to a Big Ten title and an appearance in the College Football Playoff that year. In the 2023 season, McCarthy threw for nearly 3,000 yards and steered Michigan to an undefeated season that culminated in a national championship.
Strengths
McCarthy’s biggest strength is his ability to make throws over the middle of the field. While he didn’t have as many dropbacks as his 2024 NFL Draft counterparts, he still attacked the middle of the field at a high rate. He attempted 97 throws between the hashes last season, which was the 17th most in the FBS. On those throws, he earned a 91.2 passing grade and recorded an 85.6% adjusted completion percentage. Both of those numbers were in the top 10 among FBS quarterbacks. Making anticipatory throws over the middle of the field is McCarthy's calling card, and it’s a very translatable skill when it comes to graduating to the NFL.
some JJ McCarthy clips incoming
McCarthy can really rip it when he's throwing to spots. Tight spiral, spins the ball with a ton of velocity. Allows him to fit throws like this one with consistency. pic.twitter.com/v1wSb7PFqA
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) January 26, 2024
Part of that ability to attack the middle of the field comes from his craftiness within the pocket. He knows how to create throwing lanes for himself with subtle movements. He improved dramatically at navigating the pocket and not leaving it too early throughout his two seasons as a starter at Michigan. He showed a good understanding of feeling out pressure and then maneuvering because of it. It’s something he struggled with at times in the 2022 season, but he made significant strides in 2023. And now it's one of the strengths of his game.
McCarthy is not just a quarterback who has to stay in the pocket, unable to make plays when everything breaks down. He is a fantastic athlete and was used on designed runs at Michigan. Not only is he a threat in the run game, but he can also make plays outside of the pocket. Whether that is making throws on the run or taking off to run for first downs, he’s proven to be an effective athlete at quarterback.
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) March 10, 2024
Weaknesses
The biggest area of concern for McCarthy is his accuracy when throwing outside of the numbers. On such pass attempts, he recorded a 27.1% uncatchable throw rate, ranking 48th out of 105 eligible FBS quarterbacks. That same stat is just 10.8% everywhere else for him, fifth best in the nation. It's a noticeable gap, and it stems from some poor mechanics. Strange footwork tends to lead McCarthy to overstride when he targets these outside throws. He could clean it up in the NFL with coaching to help him do a better job of keeping his base underneath him.
McCarthy has a tendency to overstride and have other wonky footwork when throwing to the outside, particularly to the left. pic.twitter.com/bPqRBagoeU
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) March 2, 2024
Another area of concern for McCarthy is a lack of consistency when needing to progress past his first read. When he gets what he wants from the defense, he doesn’t hesitate to fire the ball into any window. When that look gets muddy, however, he tends to stare down his first read and really hesitate to move off it. That leads to him forcing throws into windows that aren’t open. The majority of his turnover-worthy passes came from him getting too locked in on a pre-snap decision.
Summary
J.J. McCarthy is still a young and relatively inexperienced quarterback compared to some of his peers in this draft class. That makes him a very intriguing prospect, one who could be anywhere on a team's board.
His game could translate very well to a Shanahan/McVay style of offense that likes to use play action and attack the middle of the field consistently. He was able to do that at an extremely high level at Michigan. On the flip side, some shortcomings could put teams off McCarthy. He struggles with consistency on outside throws and touch on deep balls. The good news for McCarthy is that he’s still very young and nowhere near a finished product. That’s the selling point for drafting him.
He brings a higher floor of being able to play on time over the middle of the field, and while he is still raw, he is a good enough athlete to make one believe he can be a franchise quarterback.
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