The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year’s running back class has excellent depth and many different skill sets that NFL teams will covet. Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, Michigan’s Blake Corum and Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright lead this diverse class and will look to become immediate contributors in the NFL.
Let's look at Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, the RB1 on PFF's 2024 Big Board.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
Brooks, a decorated Texas high school football player, had to wait his turn behind the likes of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson before taking over as the Longhorns’ lead back in 2023. The wait appeared to be worth it, as he looked like a future NFL star as just a redshirt sophomore.
While his footwork isn’t quite at Robinson’s level, he can cut and change direction to quickly avoid tacklers and has an explosive first step.
He isn’t a nuanced route runner, but he has good hands and showcased his ability to force missed tackles as a receiver. The only glaring negative on his scouting report is a torn ACL in 2023 that ended his lone season as a starter.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW BROOKS RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
Running back is perhaps the most dependent position in all of football, as most rushing production comes from the quality of the run blocking, the box count and, subsequently, the quality of the passing attack.
If looking to separate running backs, the best way to do so is by isolating them from their teammates and identifying how much they can create yardage on their own. While rushing grades and output are far less stable than other metrics, running backs must make defenders miss, create yards after contact or contribute in the passing game to maximize their value. Running back yards per route run is one of the most stable metrics when projecting value from year to year.
Scheme fits are incredibly important when it comes to running back, and grades in each scheme provide context to what situation they would be most successful in.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Brooks’ metrics in the most predictive of data subsets are among college football’s best.
Brooks will enter the league with hardly any wear on his tires, as he has just 238 career rushing attempts. He’s a tackle-breaking machine at 6 feet and 216 pounds and recorded 0.34 forced missed tackles per attempt in 2023.
BROOKS’ PROJECTIONS
Here are Brooks’ rookie-year rushing projections for yards per carry and yards after contact per carry.
Let’s look at Brooks’ receiving projections for yards per reception and completion percentage in the average passing offense.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Brooks is an ideal blend of size, speed, strength and agility. Though limited in snap totals, he has good vision in both gap and zone run schemes. If he can get back to form following his torn ACL, he has all the goods to be a starting running back in the NFL.
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