The 2024 NFL Draft is fast approaching. The PFF big board is live, mock draft season is in full swing and the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine has wrapped up.
This year’s running back class has excellent depth and many different skill sets that NFL teams will covet. Texas’ Jonathon Brooks, Michigan’s Blake Corum and Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright lead this diverse class and will look to become immediate contributors in the NFL.
Let's look at Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright, whose impressive 4.38-second 40-yard dash and 11-foot-2 broad jump at the NFL combine vaulted his draft stock.
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SCOUTING SUMMARY
Wright brings plenty of speed and explosiveness to the running back position. At Tennessee, he became the team's leading rusher as a sophomore in 2022, and he wasn't even the Vols' lead back.
His calling card is his explosiveness. His first step, whether that be linear or lateral, is eye-popping. He follows that up with an NFL-level top gear to eat up a ton of open space.
As a receiver, he has good hands while his explosiveness makes for a sharp route runner. He was one of the best backs in the country in pass protection this past season due to his size and strength.
WINS ABOVE AVERAGE
WAA represents the number of wins a player is worth over an average college football player and is a metric that evaluators can utilize to assess performance. It combines how well a player performed in each facet of play (using PFF grades) and how valuable each facet is to winning football games. The result is a first-of-its-kind metric that allows for cross-positional valuation and predicts future value at the player and team levels.
HOW WRIGHT RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS
Running back is perhaps the most dependent position in all of football, as most rushing production comes from the quality of the run blocking, the box count and, subsequently, the quality of the passing attack.
If looking to separate running backs, the best way to do so is by isolating them from their teammates and identifying how much they can create yardage on their own. While rushing grades and output are far less stable than other metrics, running backs must make defenders miss, create yards after contact or contribute in the passing game to maximize their value. Running back yards per route run is one of the most stable metrics when projecting value from year to year.
Scheme fits are incredibly important when it comes to running back, and grades in each scheme provide context to what situation they would be most successful in.
Compared to other players with PFF college data, Wright’s metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measure up admirably.
Wright is likely best utilized in a zone scheme, given his explosiveness and ability to quickly shift. In 2023, he ranked third among all qualifying FBS running backs in yards per carry (7.4) and 20th in explosive runs of 10 or more yards (35) despite ranking only 93rd in rushing attempts. He’s an efficient runner with a wildly impressive burst.
WRIGHT’S PROJECTIONS
Here are Wright’s rookie-year rushing projections for yards per carry and yards after contact per carry.
Let’s look at Wright’s receiving projections for yards per reception and completion percentage in the average passing offense.
BOTTOM LINE FROM PFF's 2024 NFL DRAFT GUIDE
Wright is an NFL-caliber athlete for the running back position. His youth is both a positive (lack of mileage) and a negative (lack of consistent RB vision), but he has succeeded in both gap and zone-blocking concepts and has top-tier pass-protection ability for three-down potential in the NFL.
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