2024 NFL Draft: Anthony Treash's top 100 prospects

Explaining Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels‘ career progression is unprecedented. He improved his PFF grade in each of his five seasons at the collegiate level, finishing with a 94.7 overall mark in his final year en route to winning the Heisman Trophy.

The 6-foot-4, 210-pound quarterback is an elite athlete with some of the best ball security PFF has seen at the collegiate level. In fact, his 1.6% turnover-worthy play rate is the lowest on record (dating back to 2014). Rarely does he make a throw that makes you stand up in disbelief, and that’s something that is said with nearly every quarterback in college.

One of the biggest areas of improvement for Daniels — and a big reason for his 2023 Heisman campaign — was his deep passing. He tossed 22 deep passing touchdowns over 20-plus yards downfield in 2023, which was more than his total in his first four seasons of college football combined (20).

The LSU prospect consistently threw these vertical routes while effectively attacking leverage. Some may call this out as a stat reflecting his elite receiving duo of Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., but while I agree receiving talent heavily influences deep passing production, Daniels delivered and did what he needed to do in order to take advantage.

I have bigger concerns than that. The biggest being his pressure playstyle and reliance on scramble runs.

Anyone will agree the scramble opportunities he saw at the college level will be fewer and further between at the NFL level. He also was way too willing to put his body on the line at LSU, and he can’t do that nearly as often in the pros with his thin frame.

Daniels will need to get the ball out quicker in the NFL and not pass up what the defense gives him to seek out the potential big run. This is connected to his concerningly high pressure-to-sack rate over his college career. Each of his five seasons at Arizona State and LSU ended in a pressure-to-sack rate above 20% for a career average of 24.5%. For reference, only one quarterback over the last five seasons in the NFL owns a pressure-to-sack rate above 24.5% (Carolina Panthers starter Bryce Young, whose rate in his college career stood at 15.6%). The bottom line is that Daniels’ pocket presence is a concern.

Not to mention, there’s a rather significant issue with being able to throw when the play breaks, which is a huge piece to the NFL game. Here’s a look at how the top quarterback prospects compare in the 2023 regular season with their percentage of dropbacks moved off their spot to result a throw:

Pass att % when moved off spot (2023)

Michael Penix – 71%
Caleb Williams – 65%
Bo Nix – 65%
JJ McCarthy – 52%
Drake Maye – 48%
Jayden Daniels – 20% (lowest in FBS)

for reference, the NFL high is 74%, average is 57% and the lowest is 38%

— Anthony Treash (@atreash_) December 22, 2023

Beyond his pressure playstyle, there are some issues with his quick-game accuracy, and it’s also fair to say his intermediate passing ability is suspect.

Daniels’ athleticism, ball security and overall growth as a passer in progression concepts give him a strong floor as an NFL quarterback, but the list of cons is large.

My “most underrated prospect” hails from Wake Forest for the third straight draft

In 2022, Wake Forest offensive lineman Zach Tom came in at No. 42 on my top 100 big board, roughly 80 spots above his consensus rank. Tom landed with the Green Bay Packers at Pick 140 that year, and just last season, he was the fifth-highest-graded right tackle in the NFL.

In 2023, Wake Forest interior defensive lineman Kobie Turner came in at No. 40 on my top 100 big board — roughly 90 spots above his consensus rank. Turner landed with the Los Angeles Rams at Pick 90 last year and earned an 83.2 PFF grade in his rookie campaign, a top-10 mark among all NFL interior defensive linemen.

In 2024, it is Wake Forest safety Malik Mustapha who comes in at No. 39 on my top 100 big board — nearly 100 spots above the consensus rank.

Flip on Wake’s defense, and it doesn’t take long to notice that Mustapha is one of the best athletes on the field. The advanced metrics back that up, too, as he posted a PFF Game Athleticism Score (GAS) above the 96th percentile in each of his three seasons as a Demon Deacon.

He is a strong, explosive and rocked-up safety who is unbelievable when it comes to playing top-down. Mustapha runs the alley and fits the run at an NFL level. Last year, he earned an 87.5 grade versus the run — a top-10 mark among all FBS safeties.

Mustapha is a do-it-all, scheme-versatile safety. He has some work to do in reeling in his over-aggressive playstyle and his understanding of route concepts, but I believe he will end up a steal just like his former teammates. 

Highlighting other prospects I’m higher on than the consensus

No. 30: S Calen Bullock, USC (consensus rank 72)

Calen Bullock has been a ballhawk since his true freshman season in 2021.

In his three years as a USC Trojan, Bullock has racked up 15 pass breakups and nine interceptions, both of which rank top-five among FBS safeties over that span.

He is tall, long and rangy, and his ball skills are no joke. Bullock was a savant who took advantage of the quarterback's mistakes against the disguised coverages USC ran. He also displayed solid man-coverage ability.

Bullock is on the slender side, which causes him to miss more tackles. He can also get a little too aggressive trying to make a play, sometimes giving up big gains, but that’s his game.

No. 34: OT Blake Fisher, Notre Dame (consensus rank 89)

Blake Fisher almost returned to Notre Dame to take Joe Alt’s spot at left tackle and establish a first-round draft stock for 2025, but he chose to go to the NFL. He will likely hear his name called on Day 2.

Fisher was a breakout candidate entering the 2023 campaign, but his growth stalled at right tackle. In fact, his PFF grade dropped a smidge year over year. Still, there’s a lot to like about his NFL potential.

The 21-year-old tackle prospect has the ideal frame and athleticism combo for the position. He uses his length to his advantage in pass protection and is light on his feet, giving him strong recovery and redirect ability.

Fisher’s strike accuracy and timing have some room to improve, but when his punch lands, it deadens rushes. While his production stalled in 2023, the 6-foot-6, 318-pound tackle showed improvement in his coordination and independent hand usage.

Fisher’s tape against Clemson particularly stood out, as he allowed just two pressures to a talented pass rush while playing a healthy load of true pass sets in crunch time. He also showed throughout his career that he could survive in a diverse run scheme.

No. 35: iDL Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State (consensus rank 67)

Michaell Hall Jr. is a ball of fire. The Ohio State product possesses quicks in his upper and lower body, helping him to a career 15.4% pass-rush win rate — a top-five rate among Power Five interior defensive linemen since 2021.

Hall is effective at crossing face, getting skinny and finishing with bend to create pressure, but he is also calculated with his hand usage. He does have solid block recognition and pad level against the run, but his ability to make an impact in that facet at the NFL level is pushing him down boards. This is understandable — there are flashes of power in his game, but the 6-foot-3, 299-pound lineman really has to put everything into it, causing some control and balance issues.

Holding up in the NFL run game is going to be even more difficult, but his intellect, fight and consistent leverage won’t make him a liability. Not to mention, the 20-year-old has time to develop and has the ability to make a big impact in a rotation to start before taking on a bigger job.

No. 36: SCB Tykee Smith, Georgia (consensus rank: 125)

It’s been five years since Tykee Smith first caught my eye.

While a West Virginia Mountaineer in 2019 and 2020, Smith earned the fourth-highest slot coverage grade in the FBS. The three players ahead of him in that stretch — Elijah Molden, Trevon Moehrig and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah — are all starters in the NFL.

Smith transferred to Georgia in 2021, but multiple injuries kept him out for most of the season and kept him as a reserve in 2022. But in 2023, after fellow prospect Javon Bullard moved from the slot to safety, Smith moved to the important “star” position (slot corner) in Kirby Smart’s defense, and he returned to top form. Smith was the highest-graded slot corner in the entire FBS in 2023.

The 5-foot-10, 203-pound defensive back is on the shorter side, but he has a good build and length for his frame. Smith’s ball skills, hard-nosed mindset, fluid and flexible lower-half and instincts all pop off his tape. He processes the play at a fast rate. The ability to cover the slot route tree and navigate a lot of space is there. Arguably his greatest strength, however, is his block-shedding against the screen game.

Smith’s ability to defend faster receivers is in question, and he doesn’t have a versatile background, but it wouldn’t shock me if he takes on more of a safety job in the right system.

No. 41: CB Cam Hart, Notre Dame (consensus rank: 103)

Cam Hart is a big and long corner at 6-foot-3, 202 pounds with 33-inch arms. And with that frame, the Golden Domer possesses impressive movement skills. He also has a 91st-percentile season-long PFF Game Athleticism Score (GAS) on his resume.

Unfortunately, Hart’s ball production leaves a lot to be desired. He managed just two pass breakups and not a single interception in 2023. Considering the amount of man coverage the Notre Dame defense ran, that’s a major concern. At the same time, Hart still excelled in his job and produced — he was stingy all year long, allowing only 137 yards and zero scores en route to an 84.2 coverage grade.

I view him as a scheme-versatile prospect. His press technique and level of physicality are strong, and his eyes, feet and twitch from off allow him to survive there. Hart does have good balance closing underneath, but there could be more aggression there.

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