Stat Sheet Misconceptions

A few months back, I took a look at a number of statistics and problems in the way that they are used in a series called Stat Sheet Misconceptions. A number of these dealt with common statistics for quarterbacks, leading to a discussion about the current passer rating and the problems I have with it. At that time, I didn’t offer a specific alternative, but suggested that pretty much anything would be an improvement.
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Fast forward a few months to now, and quarterback ratings have come into the spotlight again with ESPN’s new Total Quarterback Rating being released. It definitely is an upgrade over the past system, but because ESPN hasn’t revealed the exact formula for it, it’s been difficult for it to fully catch on. In the time since the our Stat Sheet Misconception pieces ran, we’ve built another alternative to propose one more step in the right direction.
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In all of my time working at Pro Football Focus, I don’t think we have had an article devoted specifically to punters. That ends today and so does the Stat Sheet Misconceptions series as we examine punting yards per attempt. Outside of Brian Moorman, Shane Lechler, and whoever the punter on your favorite team is, I’m guessing the average fan can’t name many more current NFL punters.

While you might think punters aren’t important, a poor decision by New York Giants’ rookie punter Matt Dodge in Week 15 allowed DeSean Jackson to return a punt for a touchdown … a single play that led the Eagles to the playoffs, helped the Packers get in, and helped eliminate the Giants. Without that play, the Packers very likely would not have made the playoffs and we would have a different Super Bowl champion right now.

When we look at “skill” players, one of the best statistics out there that can be easily calculated is taking their yards and dividing it by their attempts. If we do this for punters, however, it leads to a big issue. Read the rest of this entry »

After a bit of a hiatus thanks to preparing for the draft and recapping it, the stat sheet misconceptions return. We’ve taken a look at a number of offensive statistics as well as most of the common defensive ones, now we turn to special teams.

There are two times where fans typically notice kickers. One is at the end of games when their kick can either even the score or win the game. The other is when the kicker misses. These two things don’t occur that often, with a missed field goal happening about once every six quarters of play and a game winning/tying attempt happening even less often than that.

While kickers don’t have much control over the number of field goal attempts they get, what they do have a say in is how often they convert. Most football statistics come about because of interactions between multiple players, so we would like to think a kicker’s statistics would be a bit different. However, even a statistic like field goal percentage has its problems. Read the rest of this entry »

After seeing that tackles don’t quite cut it as a raw stat to measure defenders by, there are a number of other defensive metrics that deserve a look as well. Sacks are commonly used to see judge pass rushers, interceptions have been the bottom line for defensive backs, and fumbles forced and fumbles recovered are used for any defensive player.

There is no question that these are all great plays for the defense. The offense loses a down and yards with each sack and interceptions and recovered fumbles put quick ends to possessions. While they are big helps to the team, it’s individuals who are making these plays.

These are pretty much all of the defensive statistics that have historically been kept. They’ve been used to help figure out who should make the Pro Bowl and the All-Pro team and have been used in debates about the greatest players ever, but each can be picked apart as they don’t tell nearly enough of the story on the defensive side of the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

After we looked at five different statistics to judge offensive players, it’s time to turn the ball over to the defense and focus on the most common defensive statistic: Tackles. From 1994 to 2001 the statistic was consistently kept, but it wasn’t until 2001 that it became official.

A Tackles is a statistic that any defensive player can generate, since it is simply awarded to the player who brings down the ball carrier to end a play. It would seem to make sense that players who do this more often would be thought of as the better defenders because they are preventing the offense from moving forward.

While it’s nice to have a statistic to use for all defensive players and not just pass rushers or defensive backs, there are a lot of reasons why this one shouldn’t be trusted an shouldn’t necessarily be used as evidence for a great game. There are better options. Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday, I posted a Stat Sheet Misconception article on Yards Per Catch and, near the end of it, I presented the idea of “Yards Per Target” at an alternative. In the days following, Chase Stuart of Pro-Football-Reference.com referred me to a pair of posts from their website’s blog regarding the Yards Per Target metric that showed me some flaws that I hadn’t thought about.

While I still believe that Yards Per Target is a better way of measuring a receiver than Yards Per Catch, it seems YPT doesn’t quite do the job either.

At the end of one of PFR’s articles on the subject, they suggested a better statistic for gauging a receiver’s performance. This has inspired a new metric using numbers we keep track of here at Pro Football Focus … and what makes it even more exciting is that it works well for both receivers and cornerbacks! So, before further ado, here is the problem and the new solution. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2010, Tony Romo had 1611 passing yards. This was his lowest total in years, but it wasn’t because he had a bad season; it’s because he got injured. Something that gives us a better idea about what he actually accomplished is dividing his yardage total by his 213 attempts to get 7.6 yards per attempt. Similarly, you can better appreciate just how good Jamaal Charles was this year by taking his 1466 yards and dividing it by his 231 attempts to get 6.3 yards per carry.

Yes, yards per attempt has its flaws in that it assumes all yards are equal and that all attempts are equal, neither of which being true, but it gives a better idea than just yards itself. When it comes to receivers, it would seem logical to do the same and divide their yards by their catches, which is something that is typically done. Afterall, if a rate stat is one of the best for passers and rushers, you would guess it would be for receivers as well.

Unfortunately, when we calculate a receiver’s yards per catch, we run into problems that we don’t for passing or rushing. To start you off with an example before reading further: Darrius Heyward-Bey had 14.1 yards per catch in 2010 while Roddy White had 12.1. Read the rest of this entry »

After three straight articles on numbers used to evaluate the quarterback, it’s time to move on to the next most popular position in football, the running back. The statistics historically kept for running backs are attempts, yards, touchdowns and fumbles, with a rate stat of yards per run as well. The one we’ll take a deeper look at today is rushing yards.

First off, let’s consider two rushers, Kansas City’s Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs of the Giants. Each shared the load for their team, and in some regards, had similar results. Jones ran for 896 rushing yards, scored six touchdowns, and fumbled three times, while Jacobs had 819 yards, nine touchdowns and also lost three fumbles. It looked like they had fairly similar years, but when you add in the fact that Jones ran the ball 245 times – nearly 100 more than Jacobs’ 148 – it’s clear that Jacobs performed better.

Rushing yards mean something, but not much without context. While rushing yards can be an indicator of how good a running back is, there are a number of factors that make it misleading. Read the rest of this entry »

Before we move on to statistics for other positions, I think it’s necessary to examine my least favorite for quarterbacks, the Passer Rating. This number combines all of the basic statistics that are used to measure a quarterback’s passing performance into a single final figure, designed to be the ultimate evaluation for comparison’s sake. As you can see here, the Passer Rating is not the easiest number to make sense of.

According to NFL.com, “in rare cases” a quarterback will have a rating over 100. In 2010 alone, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick all accomplished this feat and ended with ratings of over 100 for the season. Vince Young was also close to this “elite” level, finishing 5th on the list with a rating of 98.64, but I doubt many teams will be fighting to bring him aboard next season.

Here we will try to make their complex formula a little easier to handle, and then we’ll take a look at the flaws of the individual parts of the formula, the flaws of the formula itself, and why we can’t use passer rating to compare eras. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’ve seen the flaws in completion percentage, it’s time to examine another statistic commonly used to evaluate quarterbacks. This time we’ll look at every quarterback’s worst enemy: the interception.

Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Tom Brady’s impressive 2010 season was that he was intercepted only four times. That low pick total was a huge contribution to the Patriots’ run as one of the best teams in the NFL last year. Eli Manning, on the other end of things, had 25, with nine coming in the last five games – part of the reason the Giants weren’t playing in January.

When looking at games won, there’s no question that interceptions are a useful indicator. In 64% of last season’s games, the winning team was the one that suffered the fewest interceptions. To contrast, the winner was picked off more than the loser in just 8%. Games that saw each team throw the same number of interceptions made up the other 28%. What I will argue is that, while it’s a major factor in deciding games, it isn’t as effective a quarterback-evaluating tool as is commonly believed. Read the rest of this entry »