The Showdown

Is this where the tides turn?

Perhaps getting comfortable and easing up a bit, Nate finally had a down week as Joe was able to steal back a couple games by turning in a .500 performance. There’s plenty of room for a comeback with 10 weeks to go and Joe trailing now by just six games overall, especially if he’s able to keep chipping away.

Nate did make good on his favorites again; three of his four wins were marked as locks. Joe went just 1-for-4 in that department, but, you know, baby steps, right?

As it stands … Nathan: 41-43-6 (13-6-2 locks); Joe: 35-49-6 (6-14-1 locks)
 
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Nathan turned the short 13-game card into a 7-6 week, keeping his head above water at just over 51% now for the season, and – despite not running away with a burst of great picks – he managed to build on his overall lead.
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When I used to go out and play tennis against a buddy whose game was as horrible as mine, just getting the ball over the net and letting him make the errors was often enough to saddle him with the bar tab that followed. Anyone else getting that sense here? Nate’s lobbing the ball back each time and keeping it in play while Joe is consistently hammering it over the wall or into neighboring courts.
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Tally to date: Nathan 37-35-5 (12-6-2 locks); Joe 29-43-5 (6-13-1 locks).
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Ouch. Week 4 was not good to either of our two contestants as they totaled just 11 wins between them.
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Nathan (30-29-5) did manage to sneak away with one more correct call than Joe and increased his overall lead to five games while barely staying above the 50 percent mark on the year. Joe’s rough run continues as he’s now a full nine games under .500 and trailing in the “Favorite Picks” category too, Nathan: 10-4-2, Joe: 5-10-1.
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Everyone loves an underdog, so I’m sure Joe is gathering fans as we speak, but with the season a quarter of the way done, even the Joe’s top supporters have to be wondering when he’s going to make his move.
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After trading blows in the first two weeks, Nathan has jumped out to a lead heading into Week 4. Nate’s winning week (9-6-1) combined with a 10-loss effort from Joe has created a cushion, pushing Joe into the rear-view mirror and toward dropping out of sight completely with another bad week.
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It is a long season, however, and there plenty of games to go, so maybe Joe’s just making it dramatic and setting up a huge comeback? We’ll see. Here are their picks to finish off the first quarter of the 2011 season:
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Nathan’s early lead was short-lived as our two contestants flipped spots in Week 2 with Joe finishing two games better this time. Oakland, Cincinnati, and the two late games (Atlanta and the New York Giants) were good calls by each last week and both missed on while Baltimore and Jacksonville.
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Now tied at 15-14-3, neither are bragging about their just-better-than-50% performance to date, but both are hopeful that Week 3 will be their breakout.
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.The Showdown returns for Week 2 with a bit of a shift: from here on, our heroes will simply be picking against the number and leaving the outright winner calls for the PFF Pick’em. Let’s see if helps them focus at all as they could both surely do with a better week after getting out of the gates slowly.
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As it stands, Nathan holds the lead, going 8-6-2 against the spread on opening weekend while Joe managed a 6-8-2 mark. Both hit on Detroit, Oakland and Cincinnati and missed on Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Who’s going to get hot first?
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PICKS FOR ALL GAMES NOW POSTED

This year we’re doing our Showdown piece with a different approach. Instead of having Sam and Khaled throw darts at the wall to come up with their predictions, we’re challenging our stat guru, Nathan Jahnke, and our resident gamblin’ man, Joe C, to go head-to-head to sort out exactly who is Pro Football Focus’ best at picking games.
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We’ll be showing their choices for the outright winners as well as offering their picks against the spread. The four games each contestant is most confident in are marked with red arrows, so if you happen to be searching for our best bets, you’ll know which games to take a look at.
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It doesn’t seem that long ago that we were sizing up rosters and trying to figure out who might still be kicking by the time this part of the season rolled around.

And now, here we are. In August, this would have seemed to be a pretty reasonable final four … with the exception of Chicago, who most people saw as a team that would be .500 or worse. Can they get to the Super Bowl against a tough Packer team? Can the Jets live up to their preseason promise? Will the Packers or Steelers add to their well-stocked championship cases?

Damned if we know. We’re good at telling you what happened in a game, not how they’re going to turn out. But we’ll try anyway.

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Burdened by his three-week stretch of greatness, Khaled Elsayed (122-84) lost his way and now looks certain to lose the title of “Mr. Predictions Know-It-All” to Sam Monson (130-76).

At the very least, both men have turned poor early starts into respectability. And maybe one strong week could make this a competitive race once again.

Maybe, but probably not. Read the rest of this entry »

With just four weeks of regular season action left, Khaled Elsayed (115-75) is closing the gap on Sam Monson (119-71) after a superb week 13 in which he predicted 14 out of 16 games.

Can he close the gap, or can Ireland’s finest (that’s Monson, by the way) hold off his plucky challenger?

Let’s see …
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