Free Agency 2011

Continuing to deliver on the promise of a blitzkrieg approach to free agency, the Eagles landed Ronnie Brown on Tuesday.  The fantasy community emitted a collective yawn, so I was surprised to discover Brown’s ADP hovers around 140.  Landing in Philadelphia is something of a best case scenario for Brown, and yet selecting him in the top 12 rounds defines irrational exuberance.  The former Dolphin finished as RB26 in PPR leagues last season, which slotted him in as a flex option and bye week starter.  Unfortunately, any hints of 2011 upside are a mirage.  Brown’s recent statistics portend a swift and ugly decline.  With the exception of Thomas Jones, you have to go back to John Riggins to find a RB with a similar profile who wasn’t completely done.

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It’s true, paper teams don’t win championships, but the right free agency moves can turn a team into a serious contender. A few bad decisions, on the other hand, can leave them behind the pack.
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Like so many, I’m now turning my attention to handing out grades for each team. I’ll look at the big signing, an under-the-radar one, and point out a guy they’ve struggled to replace before summarizing.
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Up first, it’s the AFC:

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The Seattle Seahawks have signed Zach Miller to a 5-year deal worth a reported $34 million. Miller comes from the Oakland Raiders, where he was their leading receiver each of the past three seasons. Miller has averaged 60 catches for 756 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past three seasons. While not as flashy as Antonio Gates, Miller is a superb all-around player, ranking as our 9th overall TE in 2010 with positive grades in every category except for pass blocking.

The 38th overall pick in 2007, Miller’s ideal size (6’4″) helped turned him into Oakland’s greatest weapon. Unfortunately for Raider nation, they will now have to rely heavily on their unproven receiving corps. The Seahawks have been very aggressive since free agency started. Miller joins an offense that already has newcomers Sidney Rice, Robert Gallery, and Tavaris Jackson. Miller’s quarterback situation has gone from bad to worse with this move. Read the rest of this entry »

Following up on the bit we provided Sports Illustrated’s Peter King for his Monday Morning Quarterback article yesterday, let’s have an expanded look at who is finding value in this year’s abbreviated free agency period.
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We’ve seen teams that are bringing in targeted talent with sensible deals, players landing terms well beyond a logical point, and some situations that really make sense for both sides.
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Here are some of the highlights:

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When you’re one of the better teams in the league, you’re bound to have players that other teams covet. It’s no surprise, then, that the four teams that have lost the most players so far were all in the playoffs last year, and have consistently been making the playoffs over the past decade.
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While it might seem intuitive that these teams would line up as those that are considered losers in free agency, a closer look shows it isn’t necessarily true. Of the four that have had seven or more players sign on elsewhere, only one should worry.
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Ahmad Bradshaw re-signed with the New York Giants today, August 1, 2011. Bradshaw was drafted by the Giants in the seventh round of the 2007 NFL Draft and was a contributor for the Giants late in the regular season of that year as injuries to Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward forced him into action, rushing for 190 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. In his second season, Bradshaw played the role of “Fire” in the Giants’ three-back tandem named “Earth, Wind and Fire” and averaged just 4.5 attempts per game, but was certainly effective (67 attempts, 355 yards, one touchdown) in a limited role.

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Willis McGahee, an eight-year NFL veteran running back, signed a three-year contract to play for the Denver Broncos reportedly worth $7.5 million, with $3 million in guaranteed money. McGahee played his college ball at the University of Miami and despite suffering what was originally thought to be a career-threatening knee injury in the 2003 National Championship Game was drafted 23^rd overall by the Buffalo Bills in April 2003.

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Tim Hightower, the Arizona Cardinals’ featured running back in 2010, was traded to the Washington Redskins in exchange for Vonnie Holliday and a 2012 draft pick on Sunday night. Hightower led all Cardinals’ running backs in snaps (597), rushing attempts (153) and targets(41) this past season, racking up 758 yards rushing, seven touchdowns, 21 receptions and 136 yards receiving. Hightower has spent his entire three-year career with the Cardinals where he’s accumulated 1,733 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in that time period. In 2009, the Richmond graduate finished the regular season as the second-most targeted running back (75), catching 63 balls for 428 yards.

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The New York Jets have signed Plaxico Burress to a one year contract guaranteed at $3 million.  He is expected to start opposite Santonio Holmes.

In a free agent signing period where the market has been soft for players like Braylon Edwards, James Jones, and Malcolm Floyd, it’s surprising how many teams were linked to Plaxico Burress.  Plax is less than a year younger than Randy Moss, has similar character concerns, and put together an even less impressive 2010 stat line.  We don’t have many PFF data points on Burress, but what little we do have confirms the oddness of this signing.

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The Eagles have won free agency.
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OK, strictly speaking, it’s not a competition, which is unfortunate because it’s one Daniel Snyder has been intent on winning for most of his time in Washington. But, wow! The Eagles have lapped the field when it comes to this year’s free agency moves and are currently celebrating before the finish line like they’re Usain Bolt 10 yards out from the tape in the 100m final. As the rest of teams huff and puff their way towards the end, the Eagles are high-stepping towards the cameras.
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The Eagles’ moves are interesting in a couple of different ways. Some of them are the sort that only a well run organization can pull off.
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