Auction Values

The inclusion of the risk of a decrease in positional relevancy, as I previously discussed, made a sizable but still insufficient decrease to the present-day worth of the future fantasy points of wide receiver Joseph Hands. Hands was a useful placeholder to help build a framework for valuation. That framework is now in place, and so now it is time to replace him with real players.

I have established that the factors that devalue even a perfect player’s future contributions are the preference for immediate consumption, opportunity cost, and potential loss of positional value. A real player introduces additional risk. First, his career is finite, which caps the ceiling of his production. Second, his value can change from year to year because of changes in his level of play, injuries, randomness—which includes sample-size factors such as changes in catch rate, touchdown rate, and offensive snaps played—and situation.

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In my last article, I took the first step in assigning a current price to the future value of a dynasty keeper, but Joseph Hands, my hypothetical player, was worth more than the budget could allow. In order to make the sample easy, I excluded the risk that Hands could see changes in his performance and the risk that the scoring environment could change. First, I will reintroduce the latter.

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There is a hypothetical wide receiver that is an automatic 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. His name is Joseph Hands. Hands is money in the bank. More than that, he never ages and never gets hurt. For as long as football exists, he will give you 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns every year.

I wanted to start in the abstract to tackle this problem. I play in a dynasty league that allows me to keep a player forever at the price I paid for him. If Joseph Hands came into the league next season, I want to know how much I should be willing to pay for him. Read the rest of this entry »

UPDATED: 8/11/11

Introducing PFF Fantasy’s Top 150! Using the PFF projections and auction values as of August 11, 2011, we have compiled a list of the top 150 offensive players. As Mike Clay states in his projections, several players have been left off because they are currently free agents. Also note that the auction values values assume a 12-team league with 16 roster spots available on each team and a $200 draft cap. I only included the top 24 quarterbacks to avoid QB3s. This list will be updated regularly as the offseason/preseason progresses.
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UPDATED: 8/13/2011

Here are the PFF Fantasy IDP auction values for a 12-team league with a $200 draft budget. The auction values are based on my IDP projections, which were updated last on 6/3/11.

Values are based on several factors. I used 2010 fantasy performance broken down into points per snap thanks to the premium snap data found here at ProFootballFocus.com. To that, I factored in projected performance and the PFF IDP staff composite ranking score. Values are also impacted by there 2010 performance of each player’s respective team, as determined by the overall PFF grade for team defense. Read the rest of this entry »