Fantasy Articles

Much has been made of the fact that Super Bowl XLVI (or Super Bowl 46 to normal people) is a rematch of the 2007/08 game which saw the New York Giants upset the 18-0 New England Patriots. Equally so pundits have been clear to point out there has been plenty of roster turnover since that thrilling game in Arizona. It is easy to simply state that the Giants won the last Super Bowl meeting between the pairing, or the Patriots have a superior offense, or the Giants have a better defense, but the game will be won in the one-on-one match-ups on the field on Sunday night. One of the key duels on game-day will be battle between Victor Cruz, who had 1,583 yards and 9 TDs in the regular season, against stand-in defensive back Julian Edelman. Read the rest of this entry »

With the regular season in the books it’s time to look back at the some of the advanced data we collect at Pro Football Focus with an eye to finding some IDP sleepers for next season, as well as players who may be vulnerable to seeing a decline in their fantasy value. Firstly we’ll cast our gaze to the Defensive Ends who, as the NFL becomes even more pass-happy, are getting more opportunities to take over a game with their big plays.

Over-Achievers

We’ll start by identifying players who may see their fantasy significance fall in 2011. Defensive Ends who recorded 7 or more sacks, but had the least amount of pressures (combined hits and hurries) are players who were productive but also somewhat fortuitous. Calais Campbell was a top 5 DE this year as he had a career high 9 sacks, but he only generated 38 pressures, 8^th worst. Although you would expect the former Miami Hurricane to be an improving player in his 4^th year, the 47 QBIs (QB interruptions – combined sacks, hits and hurries) he recorded from 567 pass-rush snaps means he disrupted the play on only 8.29% of his blitzes, 4^th worst. Read the rest of this entry »

The biggest decision of your weekend will likely be whether or not to use Tom Brady or Eli Manning. Do you take Manning, the quarterback who just dismantled the unstoppable Packers and relentless 49ers in back-to-back weeks? Or do you take Tom Brady, the quarterback who set records two weeks ago before stumbling a little bit last week? Both have an arsenal of weapons and finished in the top six for fantasy quarterbacks this season. Manning has his receivers healthy and playing at a high level. Brady has his ridiculously good tight ends and the ever-reliable Wes Welker and Deion Branch. While Manning is no slouch, give me Brady next week.

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With the emergence of Darren Sproles in 2011, it is easy to see the value of a PPR monster for a fantasy team. The running back position is in constant flux with injuries, depth chart shuffling, and the preferences of coaches like Mike Shanahan. In addition to week-to-week decisions for the fantasy owner, the fluidity of the position also creates a larger pool of players that could become impact players on a yearly basis. The purpose of this article is to find the next Darren Sproles of 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

There is a hypothetical wide receiver that is an automatic 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns a season. His name is Joseph Hands. Hands is money in the bank. More than that, he never ages and never gets hurt. For as long as football exists, he will give you 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns every year.

I wanted to start in the abstract to tackle this problem. I play in a dynasty league that allows me to keep a player forever at the price I paid for him. If Joseph Hands came into the league next season, I want to know how much I should be willing to pay for him. Read the rest of this entry »

The Super Bowl provides dynasty league owners one last shot to scout prospective players before the next season begins. While your family and friends are talking about the commercials or rooting for their favorite team in the game – take careful note of some of the under-the-radar players. Last year I told you to keep an eye on WR Antonio Brown of the Steelers. Who will rise from relative obscurity this year to become another star? Read the rest of this entry »

Down below are complete player projections for each quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end expected to participate in Super Bowl 46.

For analysis on the passing game matchups, check out this complete statistical breakdown.

The players are sorted by position and ranked based on relatively standard Fantasy Football scoring. Four points were awarded for each passing touchdown and six for all others. Quarterbacks were awarded one point for every 25 passing yards and 10 rushing/receiving yards got your player one point. To offer some help to both PPR and non-PPR players, 0.5 PPR was used.

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Over the next week or so, you’re guaranteed to see a whole lot of articles titled ‘Super Bowl 46 Preview’. Although I’m sure you’ll find plenty of good information in those pieces, today I’m going to supply you with statistics and analysis that you simply can’t find anywhere else. I’m digging very deep into the Pro Football Focus statistical database to break down the passing game matchups like you’ve never seen before. There will be a ton of stats, sure, but bear with me to the end and come game time, you’ll find yourself noticing things you normally didn’t pay much attention to before.

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In this article, we’ll take a look at some of the 2012 Free Agents in the NFL and potential fantasy impact/landing spots. Naturally, the landing spots are all speculation for now, but we’ll try to use as much logic as possible when discussing the player in question. We’re focusing on top WRs and TEs in this article, and will hit RBs and QBs at a later time.

Wes Welker, WR – Again, even though he’s a free agent, he’s a near lock to be back with the Patriots and Tom Brady. It’s likely he’s more valuable to the Pats than any other team in the league, and you can bet that given the Pats free agent situation he’ll either be locked up longterm or tagged as a franchise player. He’s not going anywhere and will again be a WR1 regardless of scoring format. Read the rest of this entry »

I am a bit late to the party, but the Super Bowl lull has hit us, so what better time to introduce my fantasy awards?

The Discount Double-Check Fantasy MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Honorable mention: Rob Gronkowski

The Packers may have oxidized Rodgers by sitting him in week 17 just before a bye week, but he was on another planet the rest of the season. He dusted the competition during the Sane People’s Fantasy Season (16 games), going for 26.89 points-per-game (PPG), 0.42 points-per-snap (PPS) and 0.72 points-per-attempt (PPA). There are rarely players you can count on for great fantasy production on a weekly basis, and Rodgers was that club’s president in 2011. Gronkowski would have won this award if he had completed his mission to terminate DeAngelo Hall.

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