Fantasy: Wide Receiver Efficiency and ADP
In my last article at PFF, I created a measure called Efficiency Rating. Applying it to running backs, I generated the rating by taking a player’s 2011 PFF Overall Grade, dividing it by his snaps, and multiplying by 100. By dividing a player’s overall production by his snap count, we can get a better sense [...]
Fantasy: Running Back Efficiency Ratings and ADP
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” – Not Jonathan Bales One of the most challenging aspects of assembling your fantasy football squad is deciding between talent and opportunity. Mark Ingram is a far more talented running back than Isaac Redman, for example, but Redman is getting drafted higher in nearly every fantasy league [...]
Fantasy: Pro Football Focus Auction Analysis
I recently took part in the PFF fantasy auction draft, and it was an awesome experience. I’ve had a good but not great deal of auction experience in the past, but I’ve never been in a league with such talented owners. The auction was difficult from start to finish because no one really “messed up;” [...]
Fantasy: Ben Roethlisberger’s Surprising Value in 2012
In my previous post here at PFF Fantasy, I projected quarterback passing yards using a regression of yards-per-attempt. Checking in at eighth on that list was Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, up one spot from his ninth place rank in 2011. Despite projecting Roethlisberger to throw for just 23 more yards in 2012, I think [...]
Fantasy: Projecting Quarterback Yards Using Regression Toward the Mean
In my last post here at Pro Football Focus, I projected rushing yards using a regression of running backs’ yards-per-carry. In that analysis, I attempted to correct for fluctuations in 2011 YPC using the strength of correlation for year-to-year YPC. That is, I projected YPC by determining what portion a running backs’ efficiency is due [...]
Fantasy: Projecting Running Back Yards-Per-Carry and Other Statistics
One of the most difficult tasks in projecting fantasy football statistics is determining which aspects of players’ games are repeatable, and which are a matter of luck. That is, what percentage of Matthew Stafford’s 5,038 passing yards in 2011 were due to skill and other factors that are likely to repeat in 2012? The more [...]
Fantasy: Leveraging Quarterback Rushing Yards Into a Competitive Advantage
Fantasy football can be paradoxical in that the “most important” stats to owners can often be the least useful. As an example, let’s look at quarterback stats. Touchdowns thrown and passing yards are obviously the king and prince of the fantasy football quarterback world, but their value is not nearly as significant as a quarterback’s [...]
