Does Arm Length Affect OT Play?

| August 6, 2013

Editor’s note: Guest contributor Nate Washuta was invited to share his thoughts on the subject.

Every year, draft picks rise and fall because of their physical attributes. College kids show up at the combine or their pro days, strip down to their underwear, and are poked and prodded and critiqued to determine how they measure up to their peers. NFL teams test everything with even a remote connection to football performance. Some of these make logical sense. A wide receiver that’s faster or can jump higher has a competitive advantage over smaller defenders. While the actual validity of things like the 40-yard dash and the vertical leap are widely debated, the one metric that has always perplexed me the most is the arm length of an offensive tackle.

It’s often argued that guys with longer arms are better able to keep defenders at bay and that a player with short arms simply can’t be successful. This is especially confusing when considering that there is no real consensus on what are considered “long” or “short” arms. I quite often see a scouting report where 34” arms are called long, while 33 ¼” arms are considered short by the same scouting service. Look at a ruler and measure out ¾ of an inch. Does it seem logical that such a small distance makes such a big difference in holding off defenders?

With that in mind, I decided to look at PFF data to see how much of a difference arm length truly makes in offensive lineman performance. If the popular narrative is correct, there should be a significant drop-off somewhere between 33 and 34 inches.

In this figure, I’ve included the PFF data of every offensive tackle that played over 25% of his team’s snaps in any season from 2010-2012 whose arm length I could find online. I’ve also plotted the data as PFF grade per 500 snaps so that guys with different amounts of snaps are directly comparable. With a linear fit, we actually see a negative correlation, where guys with longer arms perform worse in general. But as you can see from the R-squared value on the chart (1.00 is perfect, 0 means there is no correlation), the fit is pretty terrible, so there’s essentially no direct correlation between arm length and performance. Another interesting thing that you’ll note is that about half of qualified tackles in the NFL have arms that are 34 inches or shorter. So not only are “short” arms not necessarily a disadvantage, but they’re also not uncommon.

I can also break this down as pass blocking or run blocking. Since they’re fundamentally different techniques, it would stand to reason that arm length might have a different impact on each of them.

These charts are pretty similar to the first one. There’s still a negative correlation in both sets of data and neither correlation is even close to significant.

A good counter argument that you might make is that including right tackles might bias the data. The best offensive tackles are often charged with protecting the “blind side” of the quarterback. This also coincides with the position of the opposing team’s best pass rusher (again, to get at the quarterback’s blind side). If the better offensive tackles are going up against the better pass rushers, then the data sets could potentially be very different. PFF has listed the number of games played at left or right tackle, so I’ve simply sorted them depending on which position each player has played more.

These graphs convey the same information. Still, there’s no correlation between arm length and performance. Another interesting thing that you can see from these charts is the wide variation in arm lengths for right tackles vs left tackles. Looking at the left tackle chart, all but 4 of the qualified players had arms between 33 and 36 inches long. Looking at right tackles, that number jumps to 13, and is apparent on both ends of the spectrum. So not only are the guys with tiny arms stuck on the right side, but so are the “long-limbed athletes”.

Any way I break it down, there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between arm length and performance. Still, I would be remiss if I didn’t admit to the limitations of this analysis. First of all, the sample is limited to players whose arm length was available online. In most cases that means they attended the combine or a pro day at a big school, and most likely biases the sample somewhat against lower draft picks and undrafted free agents. The other consequence of this limitation is that old web pages that list arm length for some of the older draft classes are no longer available online. This excludes some of the oldest qualified players. Also of note is that I used a simple linear regression, without controlling for other variables. This means that other variables (age, height, strength, college conference, etc.) could very well be the most important factors in predicting performance that would account for the large variance seen in all the data. If arm length was a huge factor, it should still show up in this analysis, but a more minor effect might become clouded.

Follow Nate on twitter, @natewashuta

  • Tom

    what if you tweak the stats based on how arm length compares to average arm length of a players height. Being too tall is sometimes considered a negative by scouts also, your data above might as well be testing height with the obvious correlation between height and arm length.

    • Nate Washuta

      Not a bad idea, but I just checked the arm lengths vs heights of all of the guys in this article and the correlation is also very weak there (0.04 R-squared). If I were to include both height and arm length and the two variables were uncorrelated, then I wouldn’t know if the trend was due to dependence on arm length or height. I’m sure there are more complicated statistics I could do that would account for the possible dependence of the variables, but that would be way more complicated.

  • Scott@Seattle

    This is like height with quarterbacks, the scouts will always say that few QBs shorter than 6′ succeed in the nfl. How many have been given the chance? Very few, so the percentage of success is very good.

    • Fred Kruse

      Agree — seems to me shorter QB’s don’t get a fair chance. Then along comes Russell Wilson, so maybe this old wives tale will finally fade.

  • Nate Washuta

    In case any readers are Lions fans, I also run a Lions blog and do similar analysis at http://holyschwartz.wordpress.com/

  • Fred Kruse

    Very interesting, Nate. I’ve wondered about this, too. I’ve done some statistical analysis in my work, and I suspect you’ve got enough data to support your conclusion. For what its worth, I conclude the R sq is so small that arm length is simply inconsequential. Thanks.

  • Greg

    very insightful analysis. it often felt to me like scouts were nitpicking when they act like an inch makes a huge difference. It’d be interesting to me to see the average arm length of DEs’ and edge rushers’ arms. maybe they’re all typically shorter than the minimum length anyways so it doesn’t make any difference.

    I can see how greater arm length could be advantageous on the first punch, but Dline/edge rushers typically use alot of arm-fighting and countermoves that might knock the OT’s arms off target anyways. Maybe it’s actually helpful for OT arms to be shorter if it means they are faster at redirecting their arms on 2nd and 3rd punches if they don’t get ahold of the opponent’s shoulders on the first try.

    • stayflexible

      If it bends that way, you can’t break it that way.

  • Abouthat

    However, if two players have similarly mediocre tape, and one has 34 inch arms and the other has 32 inch arms, the former is more likely to be picked higher and given a better shot at playing time. It could be said that for the most part, for you to stick around the NFL as a short-armed tackle, you must be a great player to overcome the bias. On the other hand, for the most part, long armed OTs can stick around due to the bias in their favor even if they’re lacking in other aspects. This isn’t necessarily the case, but this study seems to take out variables like that. I appreciate that you acknowledged where it is limited, but I think this study is lacking more than you said.

  • Dyl

    Who are the absolutely horrendous players at around (37.25,-15) and (33.25,-35)? Both of those guys make me sorry for the fans of those teams.

  • Mike

    I know this might severely limit your population but I think you need some exclusion factors. For example, do not include any players that might have had injuries (whether they missed games or not) and players that are in the first 2 or last 2 years of their careers (learning curve and loss of athleticism)

  • spcoventry

    I came to check out this site because one of the other guys in the league uses it. After reading this article and recognizing the stata graphs I am buying a subscription!

  • Paul K

    Does height affect basketball play? There are extremely good gigantic players in the NBA who rate highly against the other centers and there are extremely good guards too who rate highly against the other NBA guards, so I guess that height doesn’t affect basketball play at all.

    Nowhere in your argument do you mention the fact that coaches are drafting gorilla arms like they’re going out of style.

  • JJ

    Longer arms usually means larger, less nimble tackles.

  • Ryan

    Who graded at negative -38?