Signature Stats: Drop Rate – Wide Receivers

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With just one game of the season left we’re going to be focusing more on what has already transpired with a look back at some of our unique signature stats.

The first stat up is a simple one, and that’s our Drop Rate for wide receivers.

Why is it so simple? Well, all you do with a drop rate is add up the amount of catches and drops a guy had which creates a catchable balls figure. You then divide the number of drops by catchable balls, multiply by 100, and you have yourself a drop rate.

Easy.

(Minimum of 40 catchable balls thrown your way to qualify)

Dropping the Ball

A good place to start is to look at which guys have dropped the ball the most. In that regard a hearty congratulations to Wes Welker who dropped 15 catchable balls in season 2012.

Ouch.

That’s one more than Calvin Johnson, who himself had one more than Brandon Marshall. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise when you consider those three represent 75% of the Top 4 most targeted receivers in the league (the exception being Reggie Wayne). Obviously it stands to reason that the more opportunity you have to drop a ball, the more balls you will drop.

It’s for that reason that we created our Drop Rate. So take a look at who had the most drops below, and then move on to see some numbers that really matter.

 

Rank	Name	Team	Targets	Catches	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
1	Wes Welker	NE	166	118	15	133	11.28
2	Calvin Johnson	DET	199	122	14	136	10.29
3	Brandon Marshall	CHI	181	118	13	131	9.92
4	Victor Cruz	NYG	137	86	12	98	12.24
5	Eric Decker	DEN	120	85	12	97	12.37
6	Donnie Avery	IND	112	60	12	72	16.67
7	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	138	94	11	105	10.48
8	Dez Bryant	DAL	137	92	11	103	10.68
9	Randall Cobb	GB	102	80	11	91	12.09
10	Steve Johnson	BUF	144	79	11	90	12.22

 

Tough Times in Indy

So, who are the guys dropping the highest percentage of catchable balls? It turns out they both play their football in Indianapolis, with both Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton finishing the year with a drop rate of 16.67. Just imagine what the stat line for Andrew Luck would have looked like if these two had been a little more sure-handed in their franchise quarterback’s rookie year.

After these two comes another pair of receivers, this team hailing from sunny Oakland. Rookie Rod Streater (15.22) and Denarius Moore (15) will need to show some improvement going forward, because it’s not acceptable to drop that many passes. They even pushed Greg Little down to the fifth-lowest score — though in fairness to Little he dropped only three passes from Week 6 onward.

 

Name	Team	Targets	Catches	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
Donnie Avery	IND	112	60	12	72	16.67
T.Y. Hilton	IND	88	50	10	60	16.67
Rod Streater	OAK	71	39	7	46	15.22
Denarius Moore	OAK	110	51	9	60	15
Greg Little	CLV	87	53	9	62	14.52
Cecil Shorts	JAX	101	55	9	64	14.06
Jordy Nelson	GB	71	49	8	57	14.04
Andre Roberts	ARZ	107	64	10	74	13.51
Kenny Britt	TEN	85	45	7	52	13.46
Nate Washington	TEN	86	46	7	53	13.21

 

Eyes on the Prize

So we know the worst, but how about finding the best? Well, look no further than Jason Avant who was the only receiver to have at least 40 catchable balls thrown his way and not drop any of them. Kudos Jason, you’re the 2012 Drop Rate winner.

Behind him are a handful of guys who dropped only one pass. Percy Harvin finishes second, which isn’t completely surprising when you consider he’s catching a high volume of balls in space and near the line of scrimmage. Now how about the guy behind him, Desean Jackson. Traditionally one of the guys who drops a lot of balls, Jackson repaid the investment in him this offseason with the kind of sure handedness we haven’t seen from him in several years.

 

Rank	Name	Team	Targets	Catches	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
1	Jason Avant	PHI	71	53	0	53	0
2	Percy Harvin	MIN	81	62	1	63	1.59
3	DeSean Jackson	PHI	75	46	1	47	2.13
4	Mario Manningham	SF	55	42	1	43	2.33
5	Anquan Boldin	BLT	108	65	2	67	2.99
6	Danny Amendola	SL	94	62	2	64	3.13
7	Malcom Floyd	SD	82	56	2	58	3.45
8	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	96	53	2	55	3.64
9	Roddy White	ATL	138	92	4	96	4.17
10	Golden Tate	SEA	65	45	2	47	4.26
10	Brandon Stokley	DEN	57	45	2	47	4.26

 

Of course numbers don’t paint an entire picture. Not all drops are created equal and that’s something we take into account with our grading. However, the sample size is significant enough that you get a feel for which guys have the best, and worst, hands out there.

Stay tuned in the days ahead as we go beyond wide receivers to look at tight ends and backs.

 

Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled