Sig Stat Snapshot: TE Receiving Production

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Today I’ll take a look at tight ends and their receiving production. To do that we will mainly be looking at two of our Signature Stats for receivers, Yards per Route Run (YPRR) and Drop Rate. Both are very straight forward in terms of how they are calculated and the equations are the following:

YPRR = Yards divided by Snaps in Route

Drop Rate = Drops divided by Catchable Passes

Both are very simple, but also very meaningful and you will only find them here at PFF. YPRR is a great evaluator among receivers because it only looks at production when players had a chance to produce. These takes away discrepancies created by injuries, pass-heavy offenses, or just limited playing time. Drop Rate does the same thing. It is only calculated per catchable pass so it is more indicative than total drops. For instance, Tony Gonzalez has dropped four passes this season and Ed Dickson has only dropped one, but Gonzalez is still ahead in Drop Rate. The Falcons’ tight end has seen over four times as many catchable balls this year, so who really has the surer hands? Drop Rate says Gonzalez.

Comparing Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

The tight end position has evolved over time and in today’s game they are asked to possess a unique skillset. The optimal tight end would block like Duane Brown and play the ball like Calvin Johnson, but both zeniths are unrealistic. It, then, is up to each team on which end of the spectrum they want their tight end to fall. In recent years this decision has again and again been made in favor of receiving skills to the point where almost every elite passing attack features their tight end. For this reason, it is fair to compare tight end statistics to wide receivers on equal ground. The following are comparisons between tight ends and wide receivers in some meaningful statistical categories so far for the season:

	Tight Ends	Wide Receivers
YPRR	1.37	1.57
Yards per Target	7.53	8.12
Target Percentage	18.25%	19.31%
Catch Rate	68.55%	61.00%
Drop Rate	9.93%	9.56%
Yards per Catch	10.99%	13.32%

The only number that jumps out as a surprise is Drop Rate — seeing that they have dropped passes at a higher rate isn’t what I would have expected. I am devoid of reasoning as to why this is the case other than that we’ll see in a little bit that the 9.93% Drop Rate of tight ends so far this season may be an outlier for tight end performance.

2011 vs. 2012

Even though it is only Week 14 in the NFL, there is still more than enough data to make proper comparisons between the success of tight ends in this season and last season. Here are the same stats compared over the last two years:

	2011	2012
YPRR	1.40	1.37
Yards per Target	7.70	7.53
Target Percentage	18.14%	18.25%
Catch Rate	66.54%	68.55%
Drop Rate	8.28%	9.93%
Yards per Catch	11.58%	10.99%

Let’s now go back to that Drop Rate. That 1.65 percentage point difference is fairly major when looking at sample sizes of over 2,000 catchable passes. Again, I have no guess as to why this could be other than the fact that there have been some very poor performances this year.

Besides drop rate, target percentage has remained constant, so the decreases in YPRR and yards per target can be explained by the decrease in yards per catch and the increase in Drop Rate. This yards per catch decline isn’t too much of a surprise. Many big-play tight ends have had particularly down years (i.e. Jermichael Finley, Jimmy Graham, and Antonio Gates). It will be interesting to see if tight ends as a whole can come closer to their production from last year through the last four weeks.

YPRR Top and Bottom 10:

Rank	Player	Team	Targets	Rec. Yards	Snaps in Route	YPRR	(2011 YPRR)
1	Rob Gronkowski	NE	73	748	309	2.42	2.37
2	Fred Davis	WAS	32	325	166	1.96	1.93
3	Owen Daniels	HST	78	598	310	1.93	1.65
4	Greg Olsen	CAR	71	636	342	1.86	1.19
5	Brandon Myers	OAK	86	721	389	1.85	1.15
6	Jacob Tamme	DEN	70	449	244	1.84	0.96
7	Aaron Hernandez	NE	38	276	154	1.79	1.88
8	Brent Celek	PHI	74	601	337	1.78	1.90
9	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	95	770	432	1.78	1.75
10	Jimmy Graham	NO	86	654	371	1.76	2.41

Rank	Player	Team	Targets	Rec. Yards	Snaps in Route	YPRR	(2011 YPRR)
39	Joel Dreessen	DEN	42	253	219	1.16	1.70
40	Jeff King	ARZ	15	111	101	1.10	1.79
41	Anthony McCoy	SEA	17	131	127	1.03	0.95
42	Antonio Gates	SD	59	417	407	1.02	1.62
43	Ed Dickson	BLT	22	152	152	1.00	1.12
44	Clay Harbor	PHI	26	106	107	0.99	1.43
45	Lance Kendricks	SL	37	277	279	0.99	1.17
46	Anthony Fasano	MIA	42	224	291	0.77	1.18
47	Luke Stocker	TB	11	76	104	0.73	1.01
48	Kellen Davis	CHI	33	185	284	0.65	0.95

Drop Rate Top and Bottom 10:

Rank	Player	Team	Targets	Receptions	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate	(2011 Drop Rate)
1	Zach J. Miller	SEA	34	28	0	28	0.0	10.7
2	Anthony Fasano	MIA	42	28	0	28	0.0	3.0
3	Jacob Tamme	DEN	70	47	1	48	2.1	0.0
4	Dennis Pitta	BLT	67	45	1	46	2.2	0.0
5	Dallas Clark	TB	45	34	1	35	2.9	19.1
6	Heath Miller	PIT	73	56	2	58	3.5	8.9
7	Jeff Cumberland	NYJ	35	21	1	22	4.6	33.3
8	Vernon Davis	SF	48	37	2	39	5.1	6.9
9	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	95	73	4	77	5.2	3.6
10	Dwayne Allen	IND	53	36	2	38	5.3	--

Rank	Player	Team	Targets	Receptions	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate	(2011 Drop Rate)
36	Brandon Pettigrew	DET	92	57	9	66	13.6	6.7
37	Brent Celek	PHI	74	50	8	58	13.8	8.8
38	Logan Paulsen	WAS	28	18	3	21	14.3	0.0
39	Jimmy Graham	NO	86	59	10	69	14.5	5.8
40	Lance Kendricks	SL	37	28	5	33	15.2	24.3
41	Clay Harbor	PHI	26	16	3	19	15.8	7.1
42	Jermichael Finley	GB	60	41	9	50	18.0	17.9
43	Charles Clay	MIA	24	15	5	20	25.0	27.3
44	Kellen Davis	CHI	33	14	7	21	33.3	10.0
45	Delanie Walker	SF	24	12	7	19	36.8	9.5

 

Notable Performers

- Rob Gronkowski continues to make the most out of his targets. Gronk is first in YPRR by a large margin despite being sixth in target percentage.

- Vernon Davis needs to see the ball more. He has the highest yards per target on the 49ers, yet is only targeted on 14.3% of his routes. This is a much lower rate than Randy Moss (24.0%), Mario Manningham (22.3%), and Michael Crabtree (23.9%).

- Dallas Clark apparently worked on his hands (along with better health) last offseason. His Drop Rate decreased from 19% last year to 2.9% this year, the largest such improvement among tight ends that qualified both seasons.

- Delanie Walker did the opposite. Walker’s drop rate increased from 9.5% last season to 36.8% this season, the greatest decline among qualifying tight ends. He already has five more drops than he had last year.

- Kellen Davis has had a rough year as a pass catcher. He is worst in YPRR, second-worst in yards per target, and is targeted at the second lowest rate. It doesn’t help his case that he’s dropped a third of his catchable balls either.

- Believe it or not, Clay Harbor is targeted at a higher rate than Gronk (24.3% compared to 23.6%). The problem for the Eagles has been that Harbor averages over 6 fewer yards per target than the Patriots’ All-Pro. Harbor’s 4.1 yards per target is the lowest in the league by over a yard.

- The biggest increase in YPRR belongs to Jacob Tamme (0.96 to 1.84) while the largest decrease comes from Jeff King (1.79 to 1.10).

 

Follow Mike on Twitter: @PFF_MikeRenner