Sig. Stat Snapshot: Drop Rate, WRs

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Drops. They can kill a team. If you don’t believe me just ask the Chargers. In difficult conditions if Robert Meachem doesn’t drop that ball then it wouldn’t be the biggest leap to say they win in Cleveland.

But he didn’t catch that ball, and they lost. And it’s adding another argument to the case building against Norv Turner.

So you see how big a difference a drop here or there could make. Thus, join us as we look at which wide receivers are dropping the most (and fewest) balls.

Oops

I guess the best place to start is with a rundown of who has dropped the most balls. Well, with eight drops, that man salsa dancing to the front is none other than Victor Cruz. It tells you something about what he does the rest of the time that he’s still picking up a heck of a lot of yardage.

Behind him, both Calvin Johnson and Eric Decker have seven drops, while there’s a glut of guys with six. Some of the names included are Wes Welker, Jordy Nelson, and Dez Bryant, but I ask the question: so what? Welker has dropped six balls compared to 60 receptions. Are his six drops worse than the six of Greg Little who has 22 receptions? Of course not, and that’s what led to the creation of our Signature Stat…

The Drop Rate.

If you’re hearing ominous music in the background while you read that, good, because it’s an ominous stat for the guys who are about to feature.

A Little Bit Bad

First let’s see how we get the number. We’ve simply added the receptions a guy has made to the drops he’s had to give a new number called ‘catchable balls’. Then it’s a case of getting a percentage of those drops from the catchable balls. The lower the percent the better. The higher… well, you get the drift. Minimum of 25 catchable balls to qualify.

The man at the top? Well this won’t surprise any Cleveland Browns fans, as Little’s 21.43 drop rate figure leads the way. He might feel a little aggrieved in that Meachem, Stephen Hill, and Rod Streater all have worse scores but didn’t qualify for this study, but that doesn’t excuse the severe case of the dropsies Little has had. Consolation time? He hasn’t dropped one for three weeks. Progress that warrants acknowledgement.

Elsewhere near the bottom you’ve got Eric Decker (15.56), Santana Moss (14.81), and Calvin Johnson (14.58). Yes, when the world ends all that will be left are cockroaches and the Madden Curse, with Johnson the latest to fall victim to it. If he’s not careful he’ll find himself in Kansas City next year wondering where it all went wrong (shout out to Peyton Hillis).

Anyway, less ramble, more Bottom 20:

#	Name	Team	Targets	Receptions	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
1	Greg Little	CLV	41	22	6	28	21.43
2	Eric Decker	DEN	57	38	7	45	15.56
3	Santana Moss	WAS	35	23	4	27	14.81
4	Calvin Johnson	DET	73	41	7	48	14.58
5	Brandon Lloyd	NE	68	37	6	43	13.95
6	Lance Moore	NO	50	31	5	36	13.89
7	Victor Cruz	NYG	86	52	8	60	13.33
8	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	56	39	6	45	13.33
9	Jordy Nelson	GB	56	40	6	46	13.04
10	Andre Johnson	HST	50	34	5	39	12.82
11	Dez Bryant	DAL	62	41	6	47	12.77
12	Nate Washington	TEN	47	28	4	32	12.50
13	Kendall Wright	TEN	55	40	5	45	11.11
14t	Davone Bess	MIA	52	32	4	36	11.11
14t	Steve Johnson	BUF	62	32	4	36	11.11
16	Mike A. Williams	TB	43	25	3	28	10.71
17t	Denarius Moore	OAK	50	26	3	29	10.34
17t	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	45	26	3	29	10.34
19t	Andre Roberts	ARZ	56	36	4	40	10.00
19t	Mike Wallace	PIT	57	36	4	40	10.00

 

Miles Ahead

Not every receiver puts the ball on the ground. In fact there are two guys out there who have yet to drop even a single pass. As you may have guessed from the imaginative heading, one of them is the Cowboys’ Miles Austin. The other? He plays in the NFC East and last year he dropped 13.43% of all passes aimed his way. Yep, I’m obviously talking about DeSean Jackson. There were questions as to how he’d respond to getting paid, but the early signs are very encouraging for the Eagles.

Just below those two guys you’ve got the explosive Percy Harvin, who is more than just a guy who forces missed tackles as you can tell from his one drop on the 61 catchable balls thrown his way. That was good for the third-most impressive score, marginally ahead of James Jones (2.7) and the marks of Anquan Boldin (3.13) and Malcolm Floyd (3.33).

Long live the stick’em! (Allegedly.)

Here are the best 20 scores:

#	Name	Team	Targets	Receptions	Drops	Catchable	Drop Rate
1t	Miles Austin	DAL	58	34	0	34	0.00
1t	DeSean Jackson	PHI	51	34	0	34	0.00
3	Percy Harvin	MIN	75	60	1	61	1.64
4	James Jones	GB	53	36	1	37	2.70
5	Anquan Boldin	BLT	49	31	1	32	3.13
6	Malcom Floyd	SD	44	29	1	30	3.33
7	Mario Manningham	SF	35	28	1	29	3.45
8	Andrew Hawkins	CIN	38	27	1	28	3.57
9	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	41	26	1	27	3.70
10	Domenik Hixon	NYG	38	25	1	26	3.85
11	Michael Jenkins	MIN	41	24	1	25	4.00
12	Larry Fitzgerald	ARZ	78	45	2	47	4.26
13	A.J. Green	CIN	70	44	2	46	4.35
14t	Antonio Brown	PIT	58	40	2	42	4.76
14t	Roddy White	ATL	56	40	2	42	4.76
16	Michael Crabtree	SF	51	39	2	41	4.88
17	Reggie Wayne	IND	87	54	3	57	5.26
18	Danny Amendola	SL	46	31	2	33	6.06
19	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	47	30	2	32	6.25
20	Vincent Jackson	TB	59	29	2	31	6.45

 

So there you have it. Obviously we’re halfway through the season so the sample size is small, and it’s important to note that not all drops are created equal. Our grading takes that into account, but numbers don’t like these subjective elements.

In any case, if you want Drop Rates and other signature stats along with the PFF grades updated within 36 hours of games being played, then what are you waiting for? Sign up for PFF Premium today.

 

Follow Khaled on Twitter: @PFF_Khaled