Player Battles

| 2012/08/22

In this article, we’re going to examine some tough decisions between two players that drafters find themselves in. Basically, “Do I take player X or player Z?” and why. We’ll assume redraft formats for this analysis.  With many of these, it’s a “you can’t go wrong” situation, but we’ll try to sort through some of the stats and common sense to come up with an answer that may help you come draft day.

Julio Jones vs A.J. Green


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  • eraulli

    One thought on Graham vs. Gronkowski, since I just examined this one yesterday (timely article!): Gronkowski did his damage on just 121 targets last year, whereas Graham received 145. While I do expect Graham to receive at least that many targets again, its hard to see him improving much on that number. Gronkowski’s targets should also remain relatively stable with the addition of Brandon Lloyd, but if Lloyd, Welker or Hernandez were to get hurt he could get another 20-30 targets and potentially blow by last years yardage numbers.

    Regarding TD rate, he caught 17 of Brady’s 39 TD passes last year (43.5%). Brady does have a history leaning heavily on certain players in the red zone, i.e. Randy Moss caught 36 of Brady’s 78 TD passes in his two full seasons with the Pats (46.2%). Moss only caught 13 TDs in the second season, but that was out of 28 TD passes by Brady (46.4%). If Brady throws 35+ TDs I think Gronkowski will catch at least 14 TDs (40% of 35).

    I play in a standard league with yardage bonuses (100 yds = 3 bonus pts). I expect Graham to end up with more yards, but Gronkowski to have about the same amount of points with much higher upside.

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