Panel Recap – Avg. Depth of Target

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This past weekend, I had the pleasure of attending Fantasy Football Fest in Atlantic City. There were dozens of players in attendance (Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, and Phil Simms among them), several fantasy football experts in the house (Matthew Berry, Dave Richard on the list), and whole lot of people trying to sell their innovative product.

The Atlantic City Convention Center proved to be a good fit for the event. There were video games (including Tecmo Bowl), live drafts, lingerie football players, and even a few informative panels.

Although the Matthew Berry/LeSean McCoy/Michael Vick panel certainly stole the show, the fine folks at ReedPOP allowed us (“us” being Jeff Ratcliffe, Bryan Fontaine, and host Jim Day) to put on a panel of our own. The topic? Next-generation statistics in Fantasy Football. As if you needed to ask.

Today, I’m going to review half of my part of the presentation. This discussion will seem very familiar, as it’s a lengthy discussion on Average Depth of Target – a topic I’ve covered before.

In the other half of the presentation, I did a detailed analysis of snap and target distribution.

Normalized aDOT Correlation

As a quick review, here’s what you need to know about Average Depth of Target, or ‘aDOT’:

What is it? Depth (in yardage) of each target divided by total targets. It focuses solely on how deep down field a player is when targeted.

Why is it better? It’s an improvement on a stat like Yards-Per-Reception for several reasons. One is a product of the sample size being near double because players only catch about 65 percent of their targets. Additionally, the very-unpredictable Yards-after-the-catch aspect of YPR is removed from the equation.

The most appealing thing about aDOT is that it’s very predictable. The graph you see shows the correlation between a player’s weighted and normalized aDOT from recent history and compares it to actual normalized aDOT data from the next season.

The obvious next question is “How and why are you normalizing aDOT?” All I’m doing there is simply removing the impact of the quarterback from the player’s aDOT. As we’ll see later, there’s a big difference between a high aDOT with Tim Tebow and one with Colt McCoy.

On our graph, the Vertical axis the player’s weighed normalized aDOT from the previous two seasons. The Horizontal axis is the next season’s normalized aDOT. We see a correlation of .95 here, which means that normalized aDOT is absurdly predictable. Essentially it means that you can predict n-aDOT with 95 percent confidence.

r-squared comparables:
Normalized aDOT	0.95
aDOT	0.55
Yards-Per-Reception	0.41
Yards-Per-Target	0.27

Next we have a few comparables. Regular-old aDOT (.55) is very predictable compared to the popular YPR (.41) stat, but not near as predictable as when it’s normalized (.95).

That was a lot of math, but the key item to remember here is that the stat is more valuable than its competitors because it’s predictable year-to-year. That’s hard to find in football statistics.

2011 Top 12 WR/TEs

Now the fun part. Now that you understand what aDOT is and why it’s valuable, we can take a look at some historical data and see how it translates to this upcoming season.

Here are the top 12 WR/TEs from last season

Rk	Player	Target	aDOT
1	Torrey Smith	99	19.6
2	Denarius Moore	73	18.5
3	Vincent Jackson	110	18.3
4	Devin Aromashodu	78	17.4
5	Sidney Rice	56	17.1
6	Malcom Floyd	68	17.0
7	Mario Manningham	94	16.3
8	DeSean Jackson	95	15.7
9	Robert Meachem	72	15.4
10	Eric Decker	92	15.4
11	Demaryius Thomas	81	15.3
12	Jacoby Jones	58	15.2

Note that over the last four years, balls thrown 13+ yards down field were caught 45 percent of the time, compared to 73 percent on balls under 13 yards. aDOT is 21.1 yards on the long balls and 3.7 on short throws.

We see Eric Decker tenth on this list, but it’s a bit misleading, as Tim Tebow – more on him later – likes to throw it deep. Decker’s aDOT on 37 targets with Kyle Orton was 8.8. With Tim Tebow, it was 19.8 on 55 targets. Similarly, Demaryius Thomas had a 9.1 aDOT on 35 targets with Kyle Orton in 2010, but was at 15.0 with Tim Tebow in 2011. That is a fine example of why I normalize aDOT and those splits certainly need to be considered when projecting future data.

Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd, and Robert Meachem should also jump out. Jackson and Floyd have spent the last few seasons with the Chargers. With Jackson out, Meachem figures to take on big chunk of his workload. There should be no doubts that Meachem will see a ton of deep balls, as no one provides more long balls to his wideouts than Philip Rivers.

These guys are ideal targets in non-PPR, TD-heavy, and Draftmaster leagues. They will generally catch fewer balls, but they’ll put up big yardage and touchdown numbers.

2011 Bottom 12 WR/TEs

Here are the bottom 12 WR/TEs from last season.

Rk	Player	Target	aDOT
117	Percy Harvin	118	5.9
116	Dallas Clark	63	6.1
115	Hines Ward	62	6.2
114	Brandon Pettigrew	122	6.6
113	Nate Burleson	115	6.9
112	Preston Parker	60	6.9
111	Ben Watson	69	7.1
110	Brent Celek	94	7.1
109	Aaron Hernandez	134	7.1
108	Dennis Pitta	64	7.3
107	Austin Collie	92	7.5
106	Wes Welker	193	7.5

You’ll notice that six tight ends show up here and that makes a lot of sense, as they will usually focus primarily on underneath routes. Not coincidentally, the six wide receivers shown spend a lot of time in the slot. Percy Harvin and Aaron Hernandez also work out of the backfield on occasion.

These guys are going to be better targets in PPR leagues and are better bets for consistent production. Although Austin Collie and Percy Harvin are exceptions, wide receivers with low aDOT’s generally won’t score a lot of touchdowns. Tight ends don’t fit that bill as they are targeted more often in the short field, especially inside the redzone.

aDOT > YPR

Here we’re going to use a made-up scenario to explain the advantage of aDOT over YPR.

Wide Receiver A	Target	Reception	Depth	Yardage
1st Quarter- 12:15	1	1	-1	80
2nd Quarter – 8:57	1	0	5	0
2nd Quarter – 4:14	1	0	-2	0
4th Quarter – 13:19	1	0	1	0
Total	4	1	3	80
		aDOT =	0.8
		YPR =	20.0
		YPR Proj. =	??
Wide Receiver B	Target	Reception	Depth	Yardage
2nd Quarter – 7:54	1	1	22	28
3rd Quarter – 14:14	1	1	8	9
4th Quarter – 9:14	1	1	14	30
4th Quarter – 1:19	1	1	12	13
Total	4	4	56	80
		aDOT =	14.0
		YPR =	20.0
		YPR Proj. =	??

Wide Receiver A has seen four targets in this game, but none were deeper than five yards down field. He caught only one of those passes – a bubble screen – and took it 80 yards for a touchdown. At the end of the day, he has a YPR mark of 20.0, but an aDOT of just under one yard.

Wide Receiver B also saw four targets, but caught all four for 80 yards and also has a 20.0 YPR. He, however, has a 14.0 aDOT.

Simply looking at YPR, these players both appear to be big play threats. Looking at aDOT, however, we see that’s not the case. WR A will catch more passes going forward and his YPR will take a big dive. WR B, on the other hand, is a mid-range/deep target and won’t keep up a high catch rate.

And – for a real life example – I’m sure you saw Andrew Luck’s first preseason pass – a short dumpoff to Donald Brown, who took it 63 yards for a touchdown. Brown’s YPR in that game was 63.0. His aDOT? 3.0. Which is more indicative of his role?

And that leads to my final slam on YPR. The NFL season is only 17 weeks long so one big play can severely inflate data for weeks on end, even while it’s regressing. aDOT gives you an accurate look at a player’s usage right off the bat, while WRA from above will show on stat pages with an inflated YPR for weeks.

Top aDOT vs. YPR

Next, we are comparing the players from 2011 who had higher aDOTs than YPRs.

Rk	Player	Targ	aDOT	YPR	Diff
1	Eddie Royal	56	12.5	9.5	2.9
2	Mario Manningham	94	16.3	13.7	2.6
3	Torrey Smith	99	19.6	17.3	2.4
4	Jonathan Baldwin	51	14.3	12.1	2.2
5	Sidney Rice	56	17.1	15.1	2.0
6	Eric Decker	92	15.4	13.9	1.4
7	Brandon Lloyd	144	15.2	13.8	1.4
8	Titus Young	89	13.7	12.3	1.4
9	Legedu Naanee	74	11.9	10.6	1.3
10	Golden Tate	54	11.8	10.9	0.9
11	Damian Williams	89	13.4	13.2	0.2
12	Ed Dickson	92	10.0	9.9	0.1

As we’ll see in the next chart, we’re analyzing 117 players here and only 13 (or 11%) had a higher aDOT than YPR.  These are guys you can generally expect to see some regression from the next year; although quite a few of these guys changed teams, so their role may change as well.

A good example is Titus Young. His 12.3 YPR was 1.4 yards lower than his 13.7 aDOT. He figures to see additional work this year and will run a fair share of deep routes. Expect a larger YPR.

Bottom aDOT vs. YPR

Our next slide is the same concept, but it’s the guys with YPRs severely higher than their aDOTs.

Rk	Player	Targ	aDOT	YPR	Diff
117	Preston Parker	60	6.9	13.9	-6.9
116	Jared Cook	74	9.1	15.5	-6.4
115	Brent Celek	94	7.1	13.1	-6.0
114	Jordy Nelson	99	12.8	18.3	-5.5
113	Percy Harvin	118	5.9	11.2	-5.3
112	James Jones	56	11.7	16.7	-5.0
111	Lance Kendricks	53	7.5	12.6	-5.0
110	Early Doucet	89	7.9	12.8	-4.9
109	Demaryius Thomas	81	15.3	20.2	-4.9
108	Rob Gronkowski	143	9.9	14.8	-4.9
107	Victor Cruz	151	12.7	17.5	-4.8
106	Wes Welker	193	7.5	12.3	-4.8

You see names like Rob Gronkowski and Brent Celek here – both guys very good after the catch. Victor Cruz and Wes Welker also make the list, but both had 99-yard receptions last season – yet another area where aDOT is more indicative of a player’s role than YPR.

Looking forward, it’s fair to expect a drop in YPR from a handful of these guys including Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, and Cruz.

Quarterback Top 12

Finally, I wanted to point out that aDOT can also be used to analyze quarterbacks. Shown here are the top-12 quarterback average depth of throw numbers from 2011.

Rk	Quarterbacks	Aimed Throws	aDOT
1	Tim Tebow	286	13.3
2	Matt Moore	328	10.4
3	Carson Palmer	312	10.3
4	Eli Manning	698	10.1
5	Cam Newton	494	10.0
6	Joe Flacco	568	9.8
7	Ben Roethlisberger	529	9.8
8	Christian Ponder	264	9.6
9	Philip Rivers	531	9.6
10	Rex Grossman	417	9.5
11	John Skelton	262	9.4
12	Sam Bradford	324	9.4

I used Broncos wide receivers as an example earlier and this chart shows why. Tebow’s aDOT was absurdly high at 13.3, almost three full yards higher than second place Matt Moore’s. I also discussed Giants and Chargers wideouts earlier, so it shouldn’t be a shock to see Eli Manning and Philip Rivers here.

Sam Bradford is an interesting name to note. Bradford had a 6.8 aDOT in 2010 which is embarrassingly low. He was up to 9.4 in 2011. More on that in a second…

Quarterback Bottom 12

Here are the quarterbacks with the lowest aDOT marks last season.

Rk	Quarterbacks	Aimed Throws	aDOT
34	Josh Freeman	519	7.4
33	Colt McCoy	434	7.8
32	Ryan Fitzpatrick	544	8.1
31	Alex D. Smith	463	8.1
30	Tony Romo	497	8.1
29	Blaine Gabbert	381	8.1
28	Drew Brees	730	8.2
27	Matt Hasselbeck	490	8.3
26	Kevin Kolb	226	8.4
25	Curtis Painter	224	8.4
24	Kyle Orton	229	8.5
23	Mark Sanchez	506	8.6

You may notice that the list of guys on the low list is a bit underwhelming. Aside of Brees and Romo, none of these guys really jump off the page. Brees’ low aDOT really makes his record-setting season that much more impressive.

Bradford’s data from earlier can be used to offer some insight as to what we could see from Josh Freeman in 2012. Freeman had a 9.7 aDOT in 2009, a 9.8 mark in 2010, but took a dive to 7.4 last season as a product of lacking a legit deep threat. In 2012, he’ll have Vincent Jackson running deep routes, which allow a bounceback season in the aDOT department. Bradford, on the other hand, didn’t have a strong deep threat in 2010, but took advantage of Brandon Lloyd last season. With Lloyd now in New England, anticipate a drop in aDOT for Bradford in 2012.

As predictable as aDOT is for pass-catchers, the sample size isn’t as great for quarterbacks. It’s important to take personnel into account when projecting aDOT for passers.

aDOT’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Based on what was discussed here today, listed below are a few guys who benefit and a few who take a hit. Note that this isn’t necessarily a list of players you should target/avoid; rather it’s a heads up on their potential changes in value.

Going Up

Torrey Smith / Denarius Moore – Both can maintain high yardage numbers thanks to high aDOT numbers.

Robert Meachem – Proven deep threat entering offense that supports deep threats

Josh Freeman – Expect more deep throws with Vincent Jackson in town.

Titus Young – YPR will regress as reps increase.

Going Down

Eric Decker / Demaryius Thomas – With Peyton Manning, there’s still a ton to love, but don’t expect the massive YPR numbers of 2011.

Victor Cruz – I still like this guy a lot and think there are reasons he’ll maintain WR1 production, but his YPR figures to take a hit.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @MikeClayNFL