2012 Pre-Season Punter Rankings

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When Roger Goodell announced that the Jacksonville Jaguars had selected punter Bryan Anger (University of California) with their 3rd round pick (70th overall), jaws dropped across the league. Not since 1995, when the Chicago Bears drafted Todd Sauerbrun in the 2nd round (56th overall), had a punter been selected so early. And considering the draft positions for three of the league’s best punters – Shane Lechler (5th round), Andy Lee (6th round), and Brandon Fields (7th round) – it’s hard to imagine how Anger could possibly represent good value in the 3rd round. But is that perspective myopic? Let’s take a closer look…

First off, we need to establish the actual value of a punter, and to do this, we need to define what a “league average” performance is. Here’s a look at how the league’s punters performed in 2011:

Name	Team	No.	Yards	LG	Avg.	Ret	Ret %	Ret Yds	In 20	In 20 %	Net Yds
Andy Lee	SF	78	3970	68	50.9	40	51.28%	317	33	42.31%	44.5
Shane Lechler	OAK	77	3846	80	49.9	44	57.14%	581	29	37.66%	40.6
Brandon Fields	MIA	78	3810	70	48.8	47	60.26%	468	33	42.31%	41.1
Thomas Morstead	NO	46	2224	64	48.3	19	41.30%	116	16	34.78%	44.1
Brian Moorman	BUF	72	3449	66	47.9	43	59.72%	494	20	27.78%	38.3
Mike Scifres	SD	47	2233	71	47.5	25	53.19%	329	19	40.43%	39.7
Britton Colquitt	DEN	100	4739	66	47.4	50	50.00%	585	35	35.00%	40.1
Pat McAfee	IND	88	4102	64	46.6	48	54.55%	550	22	25.00%	39.7
Jon Ryan	SEA	95	4428	77	46.6	47	49.47%	543	35	36.84%	39.2
Zoltan Mesko	NE	57	2642	64	46.4	27	47.37%	220	24	42.11%	41.4
Sam Koch	BLT	73	3373	63	46.2	33	45.21%	392	24	32.88%	38.4
Dustin Colquitt	KC	89	4084	68	45.9	36	40.45%	411	28	31.46%	40.1
Chris Kluwe	MIN	77	3509	60	45.6	42	54.55%	532	22	28.57%	37.9
Steve Weatherford	NYG	82	3727	61	45.5	41	50.00%	399	27	32.93%	39.4
Tim Masthay	GB	55	2496	71	45.4	23	41.82%	302	23	41.82%	38.4
Daniel Sepulveda	PIT	25	1133	66	45.3	8	32.00%	37	9	36.00%	39.8
League Average		66	2,985	64	45.0	32	47.48%	309	23	33.92%	38.7
Michael Koenen	TB	67	3003	65	44.8	36	53.73%	266	25	37.31%	40.0
Dave Zastudil	ARZ	87	3889	63	44.7	48	55.17%	563	26	29.89%	37.1
Brett Hartmann	HST	58	2575	69	44.4	26	44.83%	243	16	27.59%	37.8
Jeremy Kapinos	PIT	34	1505	59	44.3	21	61.76%	203	10	29.41%	37.7
Ben Graham	DET	28	1235	58	44.1	11	39.29%	92	10	35.71%	38.7
Donnie Jones	SL	105	4610	65	43.9	45	42.86%	552	30	28.57%	36.9
Kevin Huber	CIN	91	3971	71	43.6	37	40.66%	273	30	32.97%	38.7
Mat McBriar	DAL	58	2522	68	43.5	26	44.83%	272	23	39.66%	36.4
Adam Podlesh	CHI	89	3859	57	43.4	42	47.19%	223	22	24.72%	40.2
Chas Henry	PHI	66	2830	60	42.9	32	48.48%	176	21	31.82%	37.5
Brett Kern	TEN	86	3685	64	42.8	34	39.53%	218	35	40.70%	38.7
Saverio Rocca	WAS	66	2815	63	42.7	32	48.48%	250	27	40.91%	38.6
Matt Turk	HST	16	683	55	42.7	6	37.50%	64	4	25.00%	37.4
Matt Bosher	ATL	70	2981	59	42.6	31	44.29%	150	29	41.43%	39.3
T.J. Conley	NYJ	91	3881	63	42.6	33	36.26%	241	32	35.16%	38.7
Jason Baker	CAR	66	2799	56	42.4	35	53.03%	466	22	33.33%	33.8
Nick Harris	JAX	72	3035	55	42.2	39	54.17%	261	14	19.44%	37.1
Ryan Donahue	DET	49	2059	60	42.0	22	44.90%	270	13	26.53%	34.9
Chris Jones	DAL	10	415	54	41.5	3	30.00%	1	5	50.00%	41.4
Brad Maynard	CLV	81	3282	63	40.5	25	30.86%	288	33	40.74%	36.7
Matt Turk	JAX	27	1061	65	39.3	9	33.33%	87	7	25.93%	32.4

 

The difference between the league’s top punter (Andy Lee) and league average was approximately 5 yards per punt. Now, it’s well understood that distance isn’t the sole measure of a punter’s value, and that the ability to consistently pin opponents inside the 20 yard line is at least as critical. But Lee excelled there as well, making him an excellent example from either perspective. So for the sake of establishing the value of a top-tier punter as compared to a league-average punter, let’s analyze Lee’s 5 yards-per-punt lead a bit.

Last year, the folks at NFLStatsBlog.com broke down NFL teams’ likelihood of scoring based upon their starting field position, and they concluded that each yard was worth approximately 0.055 points. If Lee had punted a league-average 66 times, he’d have totalled 3,359 yards, an additional 374 yards above average. Over the course of the 16-game season, that amounted to 20.57 points, or approximately three fewer touchdowns scored by the 49ers’ opponents.

To put that into proper context, for seven NFL teams, a 21-point swing would have been the difference between a positive and negative point differential.

Last year, the Jaguars’ Nick Harris was by virtually every important measure one of the league’s worst punters. He was fifth-worst in average punt distance, seventh-worst in net average, and dead last at pinning opponents inside the 20 yard line. If Harris had punted a league-average 66 times, he’d have totalled 2,785 yards, or 200 yards below league average. Over the course of a 16-game season, that means Harris gave the Jags’ opponents 11 more points than they’d have scored if the Jags had a league-average punter.

Comparing Harris to Lee, the 32-point total difference is extraordinary. Nearly 1/3 of the year was within 32 points of an even point differential, highlighting just how impactful a punter can be. Suddenly, it’s easy to see what Jaguars GM Gene Smith was trying to do with this unorthodox selection: capitalize on a significant market inefficiency. Now, there’s no way of knowing whether Anger would have still been on the board in the 4th, 5th, or 6th rounds, at which point the derision directed towards Smith would have been substantially reduced. But what we do know is this: it’s highly unlikely that any other 3rd round pick would have the potentially enormous impact that Anger could on the Jags’ 2012 season, if he indeed manages to punt at an elite level.

So let’s try to project how Anger might perform in the pros. First, here’s a look at the college stats for Shane Lechler, Andy Lee and Bryan Anger:

Punter	Year	School	Conf	Class	Punts	Yds	Avg
Shane Lechler	1996	Texas A&M	Big 12	FR	72	3,074	42.69
Shane Lechler	1997	Texas A&M	Big 12	SO	56	2,631	46.98
Shane Lechler	1998	Texas A&M	Big 12	JR	80	3,488	43.60
Shane Lechler	1999	Texas A&M	Big 12	SR	60	2,787	46.45
Shane Lechler	1996-99	Texas A&M	Big 12	Total	268	11,980	44.70
Andy Lee	2000	Pittsburgh	Big East	FR	30	1177	39.23
Andy Lee	2001	Pittsburgh	Big East	SO	64	2630	41.09
Andy Lee	2002	Pittsburgh	Big East	JR	73	3147	43.11
Andy Lee	2003	Pittsburgh	Big East	SR	77	3399	44.14
Andy Lee	2000-03	Pittsburgh	Big East	Total	244	10,353	42.43
Bryan Anger	2008	California	Pac-10	FR	71	3,063	43.14
Bryan Anger	2009	California	Pac-10	SO	67	2,834	42.30
Bryan Anger	2010	California	Pac-10	JR	62	2,825	45.56
Bryan Anger	2011	California	Pac-12	SR	53	2,345	44.25
Bryan Anger	2008-11	California	Pac-12	Total	253	11,067	43.74

 

If you adjust for weather, with the presumption being that Lechler played in the most advantageous conditions at Texas A&M and Lee played in the worst conditions at Pittsburgh, what you’ve got are three very similar punters. And based upon the early reviews of Anger’s performance (including the Jags’ preseason victory over the Giants), it’s looking as though he’s going to be able to live up to Gene Smith’s lofty expectations. Will Anger be worth a 3rd round pick? Most definitely, if he’s able to consistently deliver a top-five punting performance and be worth an additional 20-30 points per season for the Jags.

From a fantasy perspective, the most important thing is to understand the rules of your league. Some leagues strictly reward volume (yards), so in those leagues you want to target big-legged punters on bad teams. Other leagues place more of a premium on accuracy and average, giving credit for punts downed inside the 20 and generally doing a better job of representing a punter’s actual value. The optimal situation for a fantasy punter is Shane Lechler circa 2009, when he obliterated all competition. The key was a perfect storm of opportunity (the Raiders’ offense struggled mightily) and skill (Lechler is consistently amongst the league’s strongest-legged and best overall punters). The result was a game-breaking season.

I’ve participated in a hard-core IDP league that includes punters since 2007, and few players at any position have been as uniquely impactful as Lechler was in 2009. That year, Lechler was the highest-ranked punter by far, putting up nearly 30% more points than the next-highest competitor (Andy Lee). Perhaps more importantly, Lechler was the 46th best player at any position, where Lee was 94th. As in real football, punters can make a huge difference in fantasy football as well.

With all that in mind, here’s a first look at 2012 punter rankings, with Anger and fellow rookie Johnny Hekker (St. Louis Rams) included:

Rank	Name	Team
1	Andy Lee	SF
2	Shane Lechler	OAK
3	Dustin Colquitt	KC
4	Brandon Fields	MIA
5	Bryan Anger	JAX
6	Jon Ryan	SEA
7	Brett Kern	TEN
8	Britton Colquitt	DEN
9	Zoltan Mesko	NE
10	Thomas Morstead	NO
11	Pat McAfee	IND
12	Mike Scifres	SD
13	Steve Weatherford	NYG
14	Michael Koenen	TB
15	Donnie Jones	HOU
16	Adam Podlesh	CHI
17	Chris Kluwe	MIN
18	Kevin Huber	CIN
19	Matt Bosher	ATL
20	Chris Jones	DAL
21	Saverio Rocca	WAS
22	Reggie Hodges	CLV
23	Johnny Hekker	STL
24	T.J. Conley	NYJ
25	Brian Moorman	BUF
26	Ryan Donahue	DET
27	Tim Masthay	GB
28	Dave Zastudil	ARZ
29	Sam Koch	BLT
30	Chas Henry	PHI
31	Mat McBriar	PHI
32	Jeremy Kapinos	PIT
33	Brad Nortman	CAR

 

Though Anger’s productivity is somewhat difficult to accurately project, we know enough to predict that he will have a very positive effect on the Jags’ 2012 performance.

First, the Jags’ offense is probably going to be below-average, with Blaine Gabbert not quite ready to join the ranks of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. Star running back Maurice Jones-Drew is holding out, and with each day that passes, it becomes more likely that he will have a sub-par 2012 season. And first round pick Justin Blackmon probably won’t make an immediate impact on the Jags’ passing game, not until he learns the playbook and improves his route-running. So Anger should have plenty of opportunities to punt.

Second, the weather conditions Anger faces in the AFC South should be better than average (environment). He won’t have to kick in extremely cold weather very often, and the AFC South includes two road opponents that play in domes (Houston and Indianapolis). So where weather can have a very negative impact on the likes of Brian Moorman (Buffalo), Anger should have fairly smooth sailing where home/road weather conditions are concerned.

Third, Anger demonstrated some pretty special skills in college, and his performance against the Giants in the Jags’ first preseason game suggests that he’s got the tools to perform at an elite level for the Jags. There will probably be some bumps in the road, but he certainly has an above-average chance to be a top-tier performer.

With those three critical factors all working in his favor, it’s hard to see where Anger won’t deliver a top-10 fantasy performance as a rookie. And for those participating in dynasty leagues, he might well turn out to be fantasy gold.