Draft Steals and White Elephants – QB and RB
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When you overdraft players, you lose at fantasy football. When you lose at fantasy football, you become very angry. When you are very angry, you smash your hand against a brick wall. When you smash your hand against a brick wall, your career as a concert pianist ends. When your career as a concert pianist ends, you start playing on the harmonica on street corners for a living. When you play harmonica on street corners for a living, deviant children kick you in the shins.
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Don’t get kicked in the shins by deviant children on street corners.
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Last year I debuted my now-annual piece on players who are either overpriced or great values based on their average draft position (ADP) across multiple websites. Will you be the owner who takes Adrian Peterson in the first round and spot the rest of your league a few wins? Or will you shrewdly wait on quarterback and take Jay Cutler as part of a quarterback-by-committee (QBBC) strategy?
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Quarterback
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Steals
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| Name | Team | Pos | Yahoo! | ESPN | CBS | NFL | FFC | MDC | MFL | Avg |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | QB 11 | 91.5 | 72.3 | 64.0 | 81.6 | 74.0 | 81.0 | 56.2 | 74.4 |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | QB 14 | 86.7 | 102.0 | 96.6 | 113.2 | 94.0 | 117.0 | 90.9 | 100.1 |
| Jake Locker | TEN | QB 27 | N/D | N/D | N/D | N/D | 183.0 | 207.0 | 159.8 | 183.3 |
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For a guy who is poised for a breakout season, Ryan does not seem to be getting much love from fantasy footballers. He is barely cracking starter status coming in as the 11th quarterback off the board on average. Ryan finally cracked 4,000 yards passing in his fourth year in the NFL last season, improving his yards per attempt (YPA) by nearly a full point.
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One of this year’s more overlooked fantasy players has been Jay Cutler, who cannot seem to shake the stigma of perceived douchebaggery. His injury woes and general lack of quality receivers have also hurt his stock. One of those things has been fixed, however. His personality may still need some work, but Cutler finally has some semblance of an arsenal with Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffery in town. You might recall an entire article dedicated to Cutler’s fantasy potential from earlier this offseason. It still works today. The biggest takeaway from that article is this: Cutler’s last season with Marshall saw him exceed 4,500 yards passing in his third year in the league. He is a fantastic value at his current ADP.
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Having Locker on this list is cheating a bit because his ADP is only depressed due to to his battle with incumbent 36-year-old Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. If Locker wins that job in the preseason, he will be a great sleeper because of his ability to score points on the ground. He led the league with 0.5 points per snap (PPS) and was second with 0.67 points per attempt (PPA). He will be relatively cheap on draft day, but he does not come without risk — both point-scoring rates are inflated because he played just two games last season, and he completed just 51.5 percent of his passes last season.
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White Elephants
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| Name | Team | Pos | Yahoo! | ESPN | CBS | NFL | FFC | MDC | MFL | Avg |
| Cam Newton | CAR | QB 5 | 12.8 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 11.2 | 21.0 | 18.0 | 11.6 | 15.5 |
| Tom Brady | NE | QB 2 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 9.3 | 8.2 |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | QB 12 | 79.6 | 82.1 | 86.2 | 78.0 | 89.0 | 86.0 | 75.7 | 82.4 |
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Barring injury, Tom Brady is certainly going to have a great season. Is he worth drafting as a top-five or -six pick, though? Owners on ESPN, CBS, NFL and FFC seem to think so, but that is much too rich for the 35-year-old in New England. With so much quality at the quarterback position, the only one worth drafting in the first round is Aaron Rodgers — barely — and that is only because he is the best quarterback in the league coming off a monstrously efficient season and heading into his prime. If you absolutely must have a top quarterback, save it for the second or third round where you can select Matthew Stafford or Michael Vick, who will put up big numbers as well.
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Do you reasonably expect Cam Newton to score 14 rushing touchdowns? How about 10? With DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and now Mike Tolbert around to run the ball at the goal line, it seems unlikely. While Ron Rivera might decide to utilize Newton as much as possible at the goal line anyway, it is worth mentioning that Newton was not particularly great as a passer last season. Yes, he surpassed 4,000 yards as a rookie, but he averaged just 228.4 yards per game (YPG) and 7.4 YPA over his last 14 games — 207.3 YPG and 7.2 YPA over his last eight. For all the buzz around Newton, he was just 13th in the league with a +8.3 PFF rating, which was buoyed by a +18.9 run rating — his -9.4 pass rating came in at 29th in the league. If his rushing scoring falls off, he may not have the passing numbers to compensate and justify a high draft pick.
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Speaking of Newton, his unparalleled rookie season has done wonders for RG3′s ADP. While Griffin certainly is a big-time rushing threat, he will not come close to matching Newton’s rushing totals from a year ago. For starters, Newton is mammoth at 6’5″ and 245 pounds. Griffin is far more slight at 6’2″ and 217 pounds. In other words, Griffin will not be playing “goal line back” for the Redskins. A bigger difference comes in playing styles — Newton tucks and runs with more regularity than Griffin, who is far more comfortable in the pocket coming into the NFL than Newton was. On the plus side, Griffin does have some solid weapons in Pierre Garcon, Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, and Fred Davis not to mention Roy Helu out of the backfield.
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The simple fact remains that rookie quarterbacks generally do not put up big fantasy numbers, though. Newton was an exception. If you are going to take a risk on RGIII, make sure you have a solid backup plan.
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Running Back
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Steals
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| Name | Team | Pos | Yahoo! | ESPN | CBS | NFL | FFC | MDC | MFL | Avg |
| Isaac Redman | PIT | RB 27 | 99.3 | 79.2 | 56.1 | 103.8 | 51.0 | 35.0 | 80.3 | 72.1 |
| Ryan Mathews | SD | RB 4 | 6.3 | 13.4 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| Reggie Bush | MIA | RB 21 | 72.0 | 52.5 | 51.3 | 52.4 | 45.0 | 36.0 | 55.7 | 52.1 |
| Fred Jackson | BUF | RB 16 | 39.6 | 35.0 | 32.6 | 42.3 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 41.0 | 35.2 |
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Why is Mathews on this list when his ADP has him solidly in the first round? Because folks are drafting quarterbacks and sometimes tight ends before him, a strategy that will only make you look smarter when you take him in the middle or latter portion of the first round. For all the injury concerns Mathews has, he played in 14 games last season and has never had a serious injury — were it not for the perceived risk involved, he would be in the conversation for a top-three pick. All he did was average 4.9 yards per carry (YPC) and 3.2 yards after contact per attempt (YCo/Att) last year for the Bolts, and he no longer has Mike Tolbert to contend with for playing time. (If you think Jackie Battle is going to seriously threaten his playing time, please feel free to let the plate pass you by.)
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It is understandable why Redman is so far down draft boards considering the uncertainty surrounding Rashard Mendenhall’s return. For a while it looked like Mendenhall might miss a significant part of the year, then suddenly he said he might be ready to start the season. It will likely be something in between, with a probably stint on the reserve/PUP list for Mendy. That means a big start to the year for Redman, which could in turn mean he keeps his starting gig if and when Mendenhall comes back. Redman posted a healthy 4.4 YPC, 3.1 YCo/Att, and 90 percent catch rate last year. This will be his third season, and he has a great chance to show what he can do. His ADP on NFL.com and Yahoo are particularly low; if you can snag him any time after the fifth or sixth round, you are already getting a great deal.
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Like Cutler, Bush is another guy whom I covered more extensively during the offseason. He may not hit 5 YPC again like he did last season, but Mike Sherman runs the ball more often than you think. The zone blocking scheme (ZBS) being implemented in Miami right now could suit his playing style even more than the power scheme the Dolphins employed last season, and Bush could be a particularly good PPR asset considering the Dolphins plan to utilize him as a receiver as well.
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Fred Jackson is an intriguing fantasy option. On the one hand, he is 31 — well past the age of decline, and his NFL carry count does not tell his whole career story — and he has C.J. Spiller breathing down his neck after filling in nicely for Jackson when injury ended his 2011 campaign. On the other hand, F-Jax was leading the league in fantasy scoring when he went down with a broken leg, a freak injury. Despite a lower snap count due to injury, Jackson led the league with a +23.7 PFF rating at running back last season. Spiller actually averaged a bit higher 5.6 YPC to Jackson’s 5.5, but Jackson separated himself from his teammate with a 3.7 YCo/Att compared to Spiller’s 2.9.
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White Elephants
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| Name | Team | Pos | Yahoo! | ESPN | CBS | NFL | FFC | MDC | MFL | Avg |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | RB 11 | 17.3 | 22.9 | 23.7 | 27.3 | 19.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 20.6 |
| Frank Gore | SF | RB 17 | 60.3 | 35.6 | 33.8 | 41.4 | 40.0 | 23.0 | 44.5 | 39.8 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | RB 5 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| DeMarco Murray | DAL | RB 10 | 26.9 | 23.7 | 17.5 | 27.7 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 24.3 | 20.6 |
| Michael Turner | ATL | RB 15 | 40.1 | 33.5 | 19.6 | 39.3 | 36.0 | 19.0 | 41.6 | 32.7 |
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The Purple Jesus is making a miraculous recovery, or so it seems. Adrian Peterson aims to be back for Week 1, but will he make it? As great as his recovery has been, he tore two ligaments in his knee — the Vikings would be a bit ludicrous to let him on the field too early. Even if he is cleared for takeoff, will he be effective enough to be your top running back? At RB11, he is a borderline No. 1. — far too risky. Toby Gerhart will shoulder a significant load one way or another. Let someone else assume that risk.
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Speaking of risk, how about drafting a 27-year-old camp holdout with 1,151 carries on 3,063 snaps over the past four seasons under his belt and an old “bone-on-bone” condition in his knee in the first round? That is what you are getting when you take Maurice Jones-Drew. Granted, MJD has made a habit of proving his detractors wrong — he did lead the league in rushing last year with 1,606 yards on 4.7 YPC despite a poor passing game to keep defenses honest — but something will eventually give. He is missing a crucial training camp with a new coaching regime in town, and we all saw how that worked out for Chris Johnson. He might be worth a draft pick if his holdout drives his ADP into the second round, but there are too many mitigating factors to take him as your RB1 in the middle of the first.
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Murray is a borderline white elephant. He burst onto the fantasy scene after yet another injury to Felix Jones last season, and he rewarded his waiver wire owners with some fantastic scores until he went down with injury himself. He averaged a whopping 5.5 YPC as a rookie, scoring 0.29 PPS and 0.59 points per touch (PPT) when he was on the field. And there is the rub — can he stay on the field? Murray has been prone to injury since his days at Oklahoma. Much like Darren McFadden, is he going to play enough games to warrant RB1 status? Even though some inside the Cowboys organization think Murray could be the second coming of Emmitt Smith, he has yet to prove he is durable enough to stay on the field. There is also Felix Jones and his career 5.1 YPC to worry about, though not as much since Jones failed his conditioning test heading into camp.
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Age and competition are reasons to avoid drafting Gore and Turner at their respective ADP. Gore is actually a year younger than Turner at 29, but he has far more wear and tear on those legs — as you may recall, Turner was LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup in San Diego for a few years before becoming the workhorse in Atlanta. Gore also has more competition for playing time with Kendall Hunter coming on strong in his second year and LaMichael James coming in as a second-round draft pick. The 49ers seem intent on spreading the workload in the backfield, severely limiting Gore’s potential. His goal line work might save his fantasy value, but I would stay away from him as my RB2.
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Meanwhile, Turner has Jacquizz Rodgers bidding for more playing time in his sophomore campaign, and he might be in line for a big dip in playing time. Atlanta has hinted at a severe cut in carries for the 30-year-old. He did average a surprising 4.5 YPC after fading at the end of the 2010 season, but he faded again over six of his last seven games last year, averaging just 3.3 YPC when removing his 122-yard performance against the Buccaneers in Week 16. Yes, it is convenient to remove a good game to bolster my point, but the Buccaneers had given up on their season by then — his performance against the arm-tackling zombies on that defense was an outlier in a poor run to end the season.
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ADP data courtesy of FantasyPros.com and MyFantasyLeague.com
MDC = Mock Draft Calculator, FFC = Fantasy Football Calculator, MFL = My Fantasy League
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