Fantasy: Pre-Preseason Mailbag

1) I have the #3 pick in my keeper league draft.. I am needy at WR.. Julio Jones, Trent Richardson available. Who to take?  – @TonyD_12

Trent Richardson all the way. If you take a look at Chad Parson’s long-term dynasty rankings, Trent Richardson is the number one running back. Strong dynasty receivers emerge every year, while running backs of Richardson’s potential and caliber are few and far between.

I’m surprised Richardson is even available at the third pick of a dynasty draft, unless the first two picks belonged to QB-needy teams. If Richardson was gone, Jones would be a great pick for your dynasty team. He’s our fifth ranked long-term dynasty wide receiver, and he proved last year that he is the real deal. Much is made of how many targets Roddy White will receive and how it will affect Jones, but in the end Jones will be a fantasy stud no matter what. Take a look at this chart showing their first 6 games and last 6 games, in which it’s clear Jones was a better fantasy scorer despite fewer opportunities.

First 6 Games
	Tar.	Rec.	Yds.	TD	FP
Jones	44	28	489	2	88.9
White	60	34	373	2	83.3
Last 6 Games
	Tar.	Rec.	Yds.	TD	FP
Jones	51	31	525	6	119.5
White	74	41	518	4	116.8

I chose the first 6 games and the last 6 games (including playoffs) instead of the whole season because the general thought among fantasy footballers is that Jones really caught fire at the end. That’s true, but it doesn’t tell the whole story because White was also much better his last 6 games.

In both the first 6 games and last 6 games, White had more targets and receptions. However, Jones ended with more yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points. In addition, White saw 1039 snaps (t-2nd most among receivers) while Jones saw 719. The word out of Atlanta is that they want to lean more on Jones this year, which means he has a real opportunity to be an elite fantasy wide receiver.

If you are seriously hurting at wide receiver and you are pretty strong at running back already, it shouldn’t be too hard to swing a deal with a leaguemate to land a receiver even if you take Richardson. Essentially, I advise going for Richardson no matter what and filling your need at receiver another way.

2) Which giants WR would be the better pickup this yr? Nicks or Cruz – @JerDavis05

That’s a great question, but I give the slight edge of Nicks. Nicks remains the number one option in New York, and that’s about the only reason I give him the edge. Both receivers should crack the top-10 for fantasy. The Giants pass the ball – a lot – and Mario Manningham and Jake Ballard are both out of the picture now.

Cruz did have an incredibly impressive 18.7 YPC average in 2011, but if you remove his 99-yard touchdown catch, his YPC drops to 17.7. While still a strong YPC average, that’s a significant difference and something to keep in mind. Nicks is also more of a redzone threat, leading to a bigger chance of ending the season with 10+ touchdowns than Cruz. You can’t really go wrong with either guy, though.

3) Keeper=McCoy RD2 took Julio, RD3, S-Jax,Martin,or Sproles (return yards). Chance Sproles won’t even be there – @Number1Torainer

If it’s a PPR league, you have to go Sproles for both the return yards and his reception points. If he’s not there, I recommend Martin over S-Jax in a keeper league. Jackson is only 29 years old, but it seems like he’s 45 with the amount of carries he’s received in his career. He probably has one more 1,000+ yard season in him, but after that it’s just a big question mark.

Martin is already the favorite to not only be the lead back in Tampa Bay, but to be a heavy workhorse. His 2012 season will net less fantasy points than S-Jax, but since you’re in a dynasty league, you have to think long-term.

I will say that you have the right idea with the third round pick, though. Since you went WR in round two, you need to get a running back in the third round. If you manage to land Martin, you have a solid core group in Shady, Julio, and Martin. With those players as your nucleus, you end up with two top-10 long-term running backs and a top-5 long-term wide receiver.

4) Can Eddie royal get 70+ rec? @RealJESSELYNCH

In fact, Gates might be the only Charger pass-catcher to reach 70 receptions – and even that’s not a guarantee. He has only topped that figure once in the last four years. Take a look at the two leading Charger wide receivers (in number of receptions) since 2008:

	2011	2010	2009	2008
No. 1	60	37	68	59
No. 2	43	28	45	33