Fantasy: Receiver Dependence

| 2012/07/25

Before the best quarterbacks threw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in a season, the argument for selecting elite quarterbacks over elite running backs was that they were safer. With the gap in their production over replacement eliminated in recent seasons, the decision seems easy. I am not so sure. On the whole, quarterbacks have been healthier than running backs, but that is not the only factor in their success.

Quarterbacks rely on their receivers for fantasy production, but some lean more heavily on a single pass catcher than others. It stands to reason that those quarterbacks stand to lose more in fantasy if that keystone receiver were lost.

I listed eight quarterbacks and their receivers who received at least 75 targets from them in 2011, and then I charted their targets and fantasy points in order to create a points per target (PPT) metric. The fantasy points represent what the quarterback scored when they threw to a certain receiver. The scoring is standard, with 1 point per 25 yards passing and 4 points per touchdown. I excluded interceptions.

For each set of quarterback and receivers, I scaled the results into a final metric I called quarterback-weighted points per target plus (qbwPPT+). 1.00 represents a receiver that generated the average fantasy points per target for his quarterback. A receiver with a 1.10 qbwPPT+ provided 10% more value than average, while a receiver with a 0.90 qbwPPT+ provided 10% less value than average.

QB Receiver Targets Yards TDs PPT qbwPPT+
Aaron Rodgers All 502 4643 45 0.73 1.00
Greg Jennings 96 949 9 0.77 1.06
Jordy Nelson 79 1101 12 1.17 1.60
Jermichael Finley 83 703 7 0.68 0.93
Others 244 1890 17 0.59 0.81
Drew Brees All 657 5490 46 0.61 1.00
Marques Colston 105 1143 8 0.74 1.20
Jimmy Graham 146 1310 11 0.66 1.07
Darren Sproles 107 724 7 0.53 0.87
Others 299 2313 20 0.58 0.94
Tom Brady All 611 5235 39 0.60 1.00
Wes Welker 169 1569 9 0.58 0.98
Deion Branch 85 702 5 0.57 0.95
Rob Gronkowski 121 1327 17 1.00 1.67
Aaron Hernandez 108 910 7 0.60 1.00
Others 128 727 1 0.26 0.43
Matthew Stafford All 663 5055 41 0.55 1.00
Calvin Johnson 151 1685 16 0.87 1.58
Nate Burleson 110 757 3 0.38 0.70
Titus Young 80 607 6 0.60 1.09
Brandon Pettigrew 117 777 5 0.44 0.79
Others 205 1229 11 0.45 0.82
Cam Newton All 517 4051 21 0.48 1.00
Steve Smith 127 1394 7 0.66 1.39
Greg Olsen 85 540 5 0.49 1.03
Others 305 2117 9 0.40 0.83
Eli Manning All 589 4933 29 0.53 1.00
Hakeem Nicks 128 1192 7 0.59 1.11
Victor Cruz 121 1536 9 0.81 1.51
Others 340 2205 13 0.41 0.78
Tony Romo All 522 4203 31 0.56 1.00
Dez Bryant 92 866 9 0.77 1.37
Laurent Robinson 79 853 11 0.99 1.77
Jason Witten 107 918 5 0.53 0.95
Others 244 1566 6 0.36 0.63
Philip Rivers All 582 4624 27 0.50 1.00
Vincent Jackson 110 1106 9 0.73 1.45
Antonio Gates 87 778 7 0.68 1.35
Others 385 2740 11 0.40 0.79

For the most part, these quarterbacks had an easily identifiable primary target in 2011. For Aaron Rodgers, it was Jordy Nelson. For Drew Brees, it was Marques Colston. For Tom Brady, it was Rob Gronkowski. For Matthew Stafford, it was Calvin Johnson. For Cam Newton, it was Steve Smith. For Eli Manning, it was Victor Cruz. For Tony Romo, it was Laurent Robinson. And for Philip Rivers, it was Vincent Jackson.

These players should not be assumed to be the best or the preferred receivers on their teams. Because this is fantasy, players like Jordy Nelson and Laurent Robinson show high points per target numbers because they caught a lot of touchdowns relative to their target volumes. Their touchdowns will likely decrease in 2012, but is it really safe to assume that the other receivers will absorb the slack?

I went through a hypothetical exercise of removing the primary targets from their teams. I redistributed the targets of the primary receiver to the remaining receivers based on their relative percentages of targets. That allowed me to compare the fantasy points scored via pass by each quarterback with and without their most productive option.

QB Receivers PPT Points
Aaron Rodgers All 0.73 366
w/o Nelson 0.65 325
41
Drew Brees All 0.61 404
w/o Colston 0.59 388
16
Tom Brady All 0.60 365
w/o Gronkowski 0.50 305
61
Matthew Stafford All 0.55 366
w/o Johnson 0.46 304
62
Cam Newton All 0.48 246
w/o Smith 0.42 215
31
Eli Manning All 0.53 313
w/o Cruz 0.46 272
42
Tony Romo All 0.56 292
w/o Robinson 0.48 252
40
Philip Rivers All 0.50 293
w/o Jackson 0.45 262
31

On one extreme, there is Drew Brees. All of the Saints receivers had a similar percentage of the team’s total targets, yards, and touchdowns. Yes, Brees looked to Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and Darren Sproles more than other options, but none showed dramatic differences in effectiveness per target. It is my belief that Drew Brees is the safest elite quarterback. He is the least likely to suffer a production loss should he lose a primary receiver.

On the other extreme, there is Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. Rob Gronkowski received 20% of the targets but produced 25% of the yards and 44% of the touchdowns for the Patriots. Calvin Johnson received 23% of the targets but produced 33% of the yards and 39% of the touchdowns for the Lions. Simply put, Gronkowski and Johnson did more with their opportunities than their teammates, and that makes Brady and Stafford more susceptible to a decline in fantasy value if either receiver were lost.

The Super Bowl exposed the Patriots for their overreliance on Gronkowski. When he was hurt, their offense stalled. I believe that was a major factor in their signing of Brandon Lloyd. We have seen Brady’s versatility lead him to fantasy success under different offense systems, and I expect he now could adjust to life without Gronkowski if he had to.

I am more nervous about Stafford. Calvin Johnson was so good last year. His +27.0 pass grade was well clear of the second-best receiver in the league. The rest of the Lions wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs combined for a +1.8 pass grade. Stafford may be clear of the injury problems that plagued his first two seasons in the league, but his health as a fantasy star is only as good as the health of Calvin Johnson.

 

Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt

  • CaptainHuggyFace

    This is why I’m not too concerned about Rivers with the loss of VJax. I think the Bolts will move to a more short- to medium passing game, with Mathews handling screens out of the backfield and Gates and Eddie Royal handling medium range stuff over the middle. Meachem will be used to stretch the defense, as will Vincent Brown and Malcolm Floyd. HC Turner would be wise to copy (to an extent) the Pats formula for success — execute higher percentage passes, with an emphasis on YAC, and cut down lower percentage passes that increase probability for interceptions.

    Plus, the play action to Mathews will allow receivers extra space. I’m looking for top 7 fantasy production from Rivers this year.

    • http://www.nonewsjustsports.com Scott Spratt

      I like Rivers as a value, as well. He’s thrown for 650 more yards than Eli Manning with only 2 fewer TDs and 13 fewer Ints over the last three seasons but is going behind him in a lot of drafts. I do not believe the 114 receptions they lost from Tolbert and Jackson will all go to Mathews and Meachem, but that will not prevent Rivers from producing at his typical career level.

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