Fantasy: PFF Grades and IDP Scoring Performance – 4-3 DEs

• Tweet
• Share by Email

My first article for Pro Football Focus took a look at how the website’s unique grading system compared to fantasy points earned by other IDP’s. I always had gripes with formats that blindly reward the interchangeable tackling machines across the league, so I sought out to find just what exactly was being rewarded through those formats.

Using the Pro Football Focus grades as a base, I found it not surprising at all that many players with a consistently high number of tackles did not necessarily indicate a high level of play. In some cases, abysmal play was being rewarded with fantasy points.

However, with the implementation of our own Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles’ IDP scoring system, which more so values players who induce turnovers, sacks and tackles for loss, the players started to become more appropriately rewarded. That research, however, was based on the season as a whole and not on a game-by-game basis. Now, I aim to look at just that.

So for this series, what I plan on doing is comparing the grades of the top 20 fantasy games for each scoring system, separated by position.  First, I took a look at 4-3 defensive ends. But before I delve into that I’ll remind you of the scoring settings I am comparing.

Standard IDP Scoring	PFF Scoring
Tackles: 1 point	Tackles: 1.5 Points
Assisted Tackles: .5 points	Assisted tackles – .5 points
Sacks: 2 points	Sacks – 4 points
Forced Fumbles: 2 points	Forced Fumbles: 4 points
Fumble Recoveries: 2 points	Fumble Recoveries: 2 points
Interceptions: 3 points	Interceptions: 6 points
Tackles for Loss: 1.5 points	Tackles for Loss: 2 points
Passes Defensed: 1 points	Passes Defensed: 1.5 points
Blocks: 2 points	Blocks: 8 points
Safeties: 2 points	Safeties: 10 points

With defensive ends in a 4-3, a lot of the same players show up in both rankings systems, but how those games are quantified are significantly different as well as where each player ranks.  First, let’s examine the top-20 single-game fantasy outputs logged over the course of the season based on the PFF scoring settings.

Rank	Player	Team	Week	PFF Fantasy Points	PFF Grade
1	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	14	40	1.7
2	Terrell Suggs	BAL	14	33.5	8.6
3	Cliff Avril	DET	14	29	0.6
4	Cliff Avril	DET	8	28.5	3.8
5	John Abraham	ATL	15	28.5	7.1
6	Terrell Suggs	BAL	1	27.5	4.2
7	Chris Clemons	SEA	11	27	3.1
8	Jared Allen	MIN	13	26.5	3.9
9	Da’Quan Bowers	TAM	13	26.5	5.1
10	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	15	25	3
11	Red Bryant	SEA	7	24.5	-1.4
12	Jeremy Mincey	JAX	17	24.5	6
13	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	1	24	1.7
14	Jared Allen	MIN	3	24	6.5
15	Andre Carter	NE	10	23.5	3
16	Terrell Suggs	BAL	8	23.5	5.7
17	Trent Cole	PHI	14	22.5	4.7
18	Greg Hardy	CAR	3	22	3.4
19	Jabaal Sheard	CLE	13	22	4.4
20	Jason Babin	PHI	4	22	2.8

A lot of really good games were had not just on a fantasy level, but on a grading level. What’s especially interesting to note is that Jason Pierre-Paul had the granddaddy of all fantasy games last season for IDP’s, yet his grade of +1.7 was the third lowest among the top 20 fantasy performances. His best game of the season from a grading perspective was Week 13 versus Green Bay where he earned an off-the-charts grade of +11.6. However, it was not very fantasy-friendly due to him logging zero sacks and just three total tackles during that contest. High individual-game grades had by Terrell Suggs, Jared Allen, John Abraham and Da’Quan Bowers correlated strongly to a high fantasy point output among several others. Overall, the average individual grade for the players in the chart above is a very respectable +3.745.

But now, things start to get interesting. Let’s have a look at the top 20 games in a standard scoring format.

Rank	Player	Team	Week	Standard Fantasy Points	PFF Grade
1	Cliff Avril	DET	8	19	3.8
2	Cliff Avril	DET	14	18.5	0.6
2	Terrell Suggs	BAL	14	18.5	8.6
4	Da’Quan Bowers	TAM	13	17.5	5.1
5	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	15	17	3
5	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	14	17	1.7
7	Terrell Suggs	BAL	8	16	5.7
8	John Abraham	ATL	15	15.5	7.1
9	Terrell Suggs	BAL	1	15	4.2
9	Chris Clemons	SEA	11	15	3.1
11	Jason Pierre-Paul	NYG	1	14.5	1.7
11	Kroy Biermann	ATL	1	14.5	-3.1
13	Jabaal Sheard	CLE	13	14	4.4
14	Jared Allen	MIN	3	13.5	6.5
14	Jeremy Mincey	JAX	17	13.5	6
16	Andre Carter	NE	10	13	3
16	Trent Cole	PHI	14	13	4.7
16	Trent Cole	PHI	2	13	10.8
19	Michael Johnson	CIN	2	12.5	2.5
19	Michael Bennett	TAM	4	12.5	11.6
19	Jared Allen	MIN	13	12.5	3.9
19	Israel Idonije	CHI	15	12.5	1.1
19	Mark Anderson	NE	15	12.5	5.4

Much different story here, especially toward the bottom of the ranks. There is a much greater range in grades this time around, with the lowest being Kroy Biermann’s -3.1 and the highest being Michael Bennett’s ridiculous +11.6 game. Trent Cole took one spot of the top 20 in the PFF format, but especially catches an eye in the standard format as well with his monster +10.8 game that he posted in Week 2.

But while there’s a larger range in grades, there is a smaller range in fantasy points. Just 6.5 points separate the 20th best game from the best one, which contrasts greatly from the 18 points that separate first and 20th for the PFF format. The wider range in scoring in the PFF format plays a role in this, but its appropriate. There should be a significant difference between the best fantasy output and the 20th-best fantasy output.

Perhaps most interesting of all is that the average grade for a top 20 player in a standard tackle-heavy format is over half a point higher than the average grade for a top 20 player in the PFF format. The standard tackle-heavy players average a grade of +4.401. This is almost solely the doing of Cole and Bennett’s huge games, which oddly enough, place them right on the bubble of the top fantasy performances. If they were taken out of the equation, the average grade would be +3.1.

Here is a graph of how they compare:

As a whole, the data is similar because there is some overlap regarding players who qualify for both lists. But where there is no overlap, standard scoring format appears to reward players with higher overall PFF grades in this sample.

It would be treading on dangerous ground if you were to make a generalization for all of fantasy scoring based on this sample size, but it is a trend that is worth keeping note of. Analyses of other positions will give a better idea of which system does a better job of mirroring on-field performances on a game-by-game basis. I’ll continue the theme of edge rushers in my next piece, which will examine how 3-4 outside linebackers fared in each setting.

For reactions, always feel free to reach me on Twitter @PFF_Dan. While your at it, follow our main Twitter feeds @ProFootbalFocus and@PFF_Fantasy .