Fantasy: Dynasty Average Draft Position Values – QB and TE
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Any successful dynasty league owner will tell you the secret to their success is finding value – whether it is in their startup draft or by trade. Having a solid set of rankings to go by can lead to success. However, to maximize your roster, you need to know what your competition is thinking. One tool to take advantage of this is average draft position (ADP). In the final part of a three-part series (you can find running backs here and wide receivers here), I will highlight several quarterbacks and tight ends whose ADP value is lower than in our combined consensus staff dynasty rankings.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 6.09 | QB12 | QB8 |
Matt Ryan has improved each season in his four-year career – yet remains undervalued in dynasty leagues. He is steady as they come despite not having a rocket for an arm or rushing for many yards. Ryan’s fantasy points per game have gone up by at least two points each year, beginning with 16.0 FP/Game as a rookie to 23.4 last season. Dirk Koetter joins the team as the new offensive coordinator, and will design the offense to maximize Ryan’s talents with more screen passes to Jacquizz Rodgers and more downfield throws to Julio Jones. Ryan may never be the top fantasy quarterback in a given year; however, he could have several top-5 finishes at a relative bargain with his current ADP.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Jake Locker | TEN | 10.01 | QB15 | QB11 |
Jake Locker is a PFF Fantasy favorite this year. Although his status as the starter for Tennessee is in doubt because of Matt Hasselbeck – Locker is arguably the highest upside QB2 you could have on your dynasty roster. He only saw action in five games as a rookie, but showed several traits that will lend him to becoming a top fantasy quarterback. For a rookie that struggled with accuracy in college, Locker was not afraid to push the ball downfield – his 9.1 aDOT was higher than the league average. In addition, his scramble rate of 5.3% on his drop backs was nearly twice the league average for quarterbacks. We have seen what rushing yards can do to a quarterback’s fantasy value in recent years with Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Cam Newton and even Tim Tebow. Locker looks primed to be a top-10 fantasy option for many years to come with an impressive cast of offensive weapons.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Sam Bradford | SL | 11.07 | QB19 | QB14 |
It is hard to imagine the top selection of the 2010 NFL Draft as an afterthought at this point, but some of the luster has worn off. Sam Bradford struggled with injuries and a lack of offensive weapons last year. His receivers also dropped 9% of his aimed passes, the highest percentage among quarterbacks last year. Basing Bradford’s dynasty value solely on his career statistics would be foolhardy. His 4.4% career touchdown rate and 7.1 aDOT are among the lowest in the league the last two years. Luckily, his numbers can only improve from here. With a new coaching staff and an improved offensive cast, Bradford can certainly still be a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Blaine Gabbert | JAX | 18.05 | QB31 | QB23 |
Hear me out first. Blaine Gabbert is undervalued. We know his rookie season was a train wreck of epic proportions highlighted by a paltry 5.3 passing yards per attempt. He graded out as the worst quarterback (38th, -49.9) overall, and did not have a single positive grade in any week. So why the optimism? Just like Bradford, he can only improve from here. Gabbert is going as one of the last starting quarterbacks off the board in startup drafts, but still has upside to be a low-end QB2. Remember, even Matthew Stafford struggled mightily as a rookie – he graded out as the 40th quarterback in 2009 (-30.9) and had a low 6.0 passing yards per attempt. Gabbert has a long ways to go before he can mentioned in the same sentence as Stafford, but he should be a QB3 target for your dynasty team in deeper leagues.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 8.02 | TE11 | TE6 |
Jermaine Gresham continued his development and showed a good rapport with rookie QB Andy Dalton last season. Despite missing two games, he finished as the 14th TE in PPR leagues and scored 30 more fantasy points than his rookie season in one less game. A.J. Green is the clear top target, but last season Gresham alternated as the second option in the passing attack with Jerome Simpson. He was targeted (21.4%) more than the league average (18.2%) among tight ends based on pass routes run. The Bengals did add two talented wide receivers in the draft to replace Simpson; however, Gresham appears to be in line for a further increase in targets. Given his efficiency in the redzone (9 of 10 career touchdowns) and an every down role as an inline tight end (81% of total snaps), Gresham is a top-10 tight end with top-5 upside.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 8.08 | TE12 | TE7 |
Kyle Rudolph is the prototypical inline tight end and is primed for a breakout. His touchdown rate as a rookie is on par with his elite peers including Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez. Rudolph was not given a chance to play much until later in the season, but proved he could belong with several highlight reel catches. Now the unquestioned starter at tight end, Rudolph will be the second receiving option behind Percy Harvin for QB Christian Ponder. It would not be surprising to see Rudolph finish in the top-10 as soon as this year.
| Player | Team | ADP | ADP Rk | Con Rk |
| Jordan Cameron | CLV | 20.05 | TE33 | TE26 |
Jordan Cameron is a raw athlete that could take more time to mature physically, but the talent is there to be a productive fantasy option soon. Cameron was the highest targeted wide receiver or tight end in the league per pass route run (35.1%, 5 target minimum) in 2011. The coaching staff has said he is one of the players to make the biggest jump since last season with an increase in strength, explosion and improved route running. Cameron is a perfect late round flier based on potential alone. He could be starting in Cleveland before long.
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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine
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