We are in the middle of free agency and the draft is looming. It is an exciting time of the year, one that compels even me to pull my nose out of my books of stat tables to see what is happening. As we post articles on the current events, I recognize that it becomes a challenge to keep up with extended research pieces like my own. To help you out, I have made this page as a directory. If you are a fan of my Joseph Hands articles, bookmark this page and check back in the coming weeks. I still have a ways to go with it.
The Present Value of Future Contributions
Introduces the concept of time value of money and applies it to auction price of a hypothetical player with an infinitely productive career, Joseph Hands.
Pricing Positions as Asset Classes
Quantifies the recent fluctuations of the scoring environment for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs and applies their volatilities to the discount rate.
Making Joseph Hands a Mortal, Part 1
Begins a study of recent historical attrition by categorizing all fantasy players above the replacement level as a rookie prospect, potential star, star in prime, star in decline, star with reservations, revelation or aberration (RORA), potential with question marks (P&Q), or non-star.
Making Joseph Hands a Mortal, Part 2
Continues attrition study by calculating expected value changes of all position-categories from year y to year y + 1.
Making Joseph Hands a Mortal, Part 3
Concludes attrition study by adding the expected rates of attrition to the overall discount rate and introduces the present value formula in order to price players with finite career spans.
Expiration Dates by Position
Determines an estimator for retirement for every position based on recent historical trends to provide an end point for present value calculations.
Variance of Opportunity
Researches the year-to-year changes in offensive snaps for teams and scales the results to fantasy points as a new risk factor.
Variance of Efficiency
Measures the year-to-year changes in yards per opportunity, touchdown percentage, and turnover percentage for offensive players.
Turning Projections into Dynasty Auction Values
Concludes the study with a step-by-step guide to using the table of discount rates to produce auction prices for various keeper and dynasty leagues.
Another Discounting Example and an Introduction to Value Propositions
Walks through the preparation steps with a different league setup, with a focus on keeper contracts.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_ScottSpratt
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