2011 Passing Under Pressure

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When Eli Manning said he believed he was an elite quarterback, more than a few eyebrows were raised. Sure Eli had won a Super Bowl, but there was so much of his game that made Giants fans cringe at times. One of the early knocks on Eli was how he handled pressure. Heading into this year, he wasn’t exactly our most favorite QB in this area, as he completed just 44.7% of passes with nine interceptions on the 173 plays he was pressured in 2010.

So, if he was going to make those who mocked his comments eat their words, he especially needed to improve this aspect of his play. More so, with a line that was entering rapid decline mode, he had to step up his game to fit in amongst the top players in the league if the Giants’ season was to go anywhere.

Well those who mocked are choking on their scoffs, and the G-Men are heading to a Super Bowl. A large part of that is because Manning has stepped up his play under pressure. Here we’ll break down how all quarterbacks performed under pressure, using Manning as our catalyst to show the importance of handling the heat.

*Note: Only quarterbacks with 200 dropbacks from center qualified for this study.

 

Avoiding Sacks

It’s something that can’t be discounted; a quarterbacks’ innate ability to avoid taking a sack. In some respects it is what separates the good and great quarterbacks out there, a QB knowing when to get rid of the ball. It’s one of the reasons why Dolphin fans are ready to move on from Matt Moore as he had the highest percentage of pressure turn into sacks (27.3%). He narrowly beat out Blaine Gabbert and Kevin Kolb who finished joint second with figures of 26.1%–the numbers speaking volumes for both men. Gabberts’ lack of pocket presence was as evident as it gets, while Kolb has always struggled with taking sacks.

 

Pressure Into Sacks, 2011

Rank	Name	Team	Pressured Dropbacks	Sacks	Sack %
1	Eli Manning	NYG	244	28	11.5
2	Michael Vick	PHI	199	23	11.6
3	Drew Brees	NO	174	24	13.8
4	Rex Grossman	WAS	180	25	13.9
5	Josh Freeman	TB	204	29	14.2
6	Matt Schaub	HST	109	16	14.7
7	Matt Ryan	ATL	171	26	15.2
8	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	135	21	15.6
9	Philip Rivers	SD	181	29	16.0
10	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	112	18	16.1
11	Carson Palmer	OAK	105	17	16.2
12	Cam Newton	CAR	208	35	16.8
13	Jay Cutler	CHI	133	23	17.3
14	Joe Flacco	BLT	177	31	17.5
15	Andy Dalton	CIN	138	25	18.1
16	Colt McCoy	CLV	179	33	18.4
17	Tom Brady	NE	173	32	18.5
18	John Skelton	ARZ	120	23	19.2
19	Tony Romo	DAL	174	36	20.7
20	Matthew Stafford	DET	172	36	20.9
21	Tim Tebow	DEN	150	32	21.3
22	Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	196	42	21.4
23	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	185	40	21.6
24	Alex D. Smith	SF	193	44	22.8
25	Aaron Rodgers	GB	158	36	22.8
26	Curtis Painter	IND	69	16	23.2
27	Dan Orlovsky	IND	60	14	23.3
28	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	164	39	23.8
29	Matt Cassel	KC	91	22	24.2
30	Christian Ponder	MIN	118	29	24.6
31	Sam Bradford	SL	137	35	25.5
32	Blaine Gabbert	JAX	153	40	26.1
33	Kevin Kolb	ARZ	115	30	26.1
34	Matt Moore	MIA	128	35	27.3

 

Looking at quarterbacks who have excelled, we find ourselves going back to mentioning Manning. Despite facing pressure on 38.9% of dropbacks (the fourth-highest percentage in the league), Manning took sacks on just 11.5% of plays he was pressured, a number only slightly better than the elusive Michael Vick. There’s no surprise to see Drew Brees up next, but it may surprise some to see Rex Grossman with the fourth-lowest percentage of pressure turned into sacks.

 

Touchdowns to Interceptions

Of course, when you start looking at touchdown to interception ratios, you start to see that maybe Rex would have been better taking some sacks instead of throwing some picks. He had the seventh-worst ratio of touchdowns to interceptions (5:11) when pressured. Still it could have been worse, with Carson Palmer having the worst ratio after throwing just two touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions when pressured. At the other end of the spectrum, three players avoided throwing an interception all year when pressured. Aaron Rodgers is a name many would have guessed, but Andy Dalton? The rookie is joined by Sam Bradford in the “didn’t see that coming” category.

 

Pressured TD:INT, 2011

Rank	Name	Team	TD	INT	TD to INT
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	4	0	--
2	Andy Dalton	CIN	4	0	--
3	Sam Bradford	SL	2	0	--
4	Tom Brady	NE	8	2	4.00
5	Drew Brees	NO	10	3	3.33
6	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6	2	3.00
7	Matt Schaub	HST	3	1	3.00
8	Alex D. Smith	SF	4	2	2.00
9	Tony Romo	DAL	7	4	1.75
10	Jay Cutler	CHI	3	2	1.50
11	Kevin Kolb	ARZ	5	4	1.25
12	Matthew Stafford	DET	6	5	1.20
13t	Eli Manning	NYG	7	7	1.00
13t	Michael Vick	PHI	7	7	1.00
15t	Matt Moore	MIA	3	3	1.00
15t	Tim Tebow	DEN	3	3	1.00
15t	Blaine Gabbert	JAX	3	3	1.00
18	Cam Newton	CAR	5	6	0.83
19	Matt Ryan	ATL	4	5	0.80
20	John Skelton	ARZ	3	4	0.75
21	Philip Rivers	SD	4	6	0.67
22t	Matt Cassel	KC	2	3	0.67
22t	Christian Ponder	MIN	2	3	0.67
24t	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	3	5	0.60
24t	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	3	5	0.60
26	Colt McCoy	CLV	2	4	0.50
27	Joe Flacco	BLT	3	6	0.50
28	Rex Grossman	WAS	5	11	0.45
29	Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	4	9	0.44
30	Dan Orlovsky	IND	1	3	0.33
31	Josh Freeman	TB	2	7	0.29
32	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	2	8	0.25
33	Curtis Painter	IND	1	4	0.25
34	Carson Palmer	OAK	2	10	0.20

 

Completions

Further breaking down how players performed under pressure, let’s take a look at the completion percentage of the 34 quarterbacks who played enough snaps to qualify. Up at the top, Drew Brees adds some credence to those who believe he was the leagues’ regular season MVP, completing 58.7% of his passes when pressured. When you factor in his 3.33:1 TD:INT ratio and low 13.8% pressure-to-sack percentage, you get an idea of just how unfazed Brees was by pressure this year. In second place, Tony Romo finished marginally ahead of Jay Cutler, though it should be noted both men (Romo especially) took a lot of sacks.

 

Pressured Completion Percentage, 2011

Rank	Name	Team	Att.	Comp.	Comp %
1	Drew Brees	NO	143	84	58.7
2	Tony Romo	DAL	134	76	56.7
3	Jay Cutler	CHI	105	59	56.2
4	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	135	74	54.8
5	Eli Manning	NYG	210	114	54.3
6	Josh Freeman	TB	156	80	51.3
7	Carson Palmer	OAK	85	43	50.6
8	Tom Brady	NE	133	66	49.6
9	Cam Newton	CAR	143	70	49.0
10	Kevin Kolb	ARZ	82	40	48.8
11	Aaron Rodgers	GB	104	50	48.1
12	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	92	43	46.7
13	Matthew Stafford	DET	129	60	46.5
14	Colt McCoy	CLV	125	58	46.4
15	Matt Moore	MIA	84	39	46.4
16	Dan Orlovsky	IND	44	20	45.5
17	Philip Rivers	SD	148	66	44.6
18	Matt Ryan	ATL	142	63	44.4
19	Joe Flacco	BLT	140	62	44.3
20	Rex Grossman	WAS	154	68	44.2
21	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	101	44	43.6
22	John Skelton	ARZ	85	37	43.5
23	Michael Vick	PHI	144	61	42.4
24	Matt Schaub	HST	92	39	42.4
25	Alex D. Smith	SF	136	57	41.9
26	Matt Cassel	KC	54	22	40.7
27	Blaine Gabbert	JAX	102	41	40.2
28	Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	145	57	39.3
29	Andy Dalton	CIN	101	39	38.6
30	Sam Bradford	SL	99	38	38.4
31	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	118	43	36.4
32	Christian Ponder	MIN	78	28	35.9
33	Tim Tebow	DEN	90	31	34.4
34	Curtis Painter	IND	50	16	32.0

 

Down at the bottom, there’s no surprise to see names like Curtis Painter, Tim Tebow and Christian Ponder, but high draft picks like Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez will be disappointed by how they responded to pressure. This isn’t something new for Sanchez who continues to struggle when pressured, taking a high percentage of sacks and completing just 36.4% of passes. Indeed if you look at our grading, there isn’t a worse QB in the league when pressured than the face of the Jets franchise.

 

Making the Grade Under Pressure

It’s been a tough offseason already for Sanchez, and we’re not about to make it any easier. We normalized our QB gradings this year, so the average mark for a QB in any situation is equal to a zero. For QBs under pressure the average score is closer to a -7.1, so finishing above that mark is encouraging if nothing else. Finishing at -25.1 is anything but encouraging, with Sanchez showcasing an inability to handle defenders coming at him. This is in stark contrast to the other starter in New York, with Manning holding off Brees’ challenge to finish as our highest-graded quarterback under pressure.

This is more than just looking at the raw numbers, but looking at the context of the throws made. A positive completion percentage may show a QB dumping a ball off on third down for a short gain that sees the punting team coming on the field. Our grading can look at a quarterback evading pressure, throwing a perfect ball, only for it to be dropped–yet still rewarding the QB for his excellent play. It’s why we’re confident when we say over the balance of this year, there hasn’t been a better QB under pressure than Eli Manning. Here’s the entire list.

 

Pressured Passing, Grades 2011

Rank	Name	Team	Pressured Dropbacks	Sack %	TD to INT	Comp %	Grade
1	Eli Manning	NYG	244	11.5	1.00	54.3	9.8
2	Drew Brees	NO	174	13.8	3.33	58.7	8.9
3	Cam Newton	CAR	208	16.8	0.83	49.0	3.9
4	Aaron Rodgers	GB	158	22.8	--	48.1	2.1
5	Tom Brady	NE	173	18.5	4.00	49.6	1.0
6	Jay Cutler	CHI	133	17.3	1.50	56.2	0.3
7	Matthew Stafford	DET	172	20.9	1.20	46.5	-1.5
8	Alex D. Smith	SF	193	22.8	2.00	41.9	-1.5
9	Matt Moore	MIA	128	27.3	1.00	46.4	-3.4
10	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	185	21.6	3.00	54.8	-3.6
11	Andy Dalton	CIN	138	18.1	--	38.6	-3.9
12	Carson Palmer	OAK	105	16.2	0.20	50.6	-4.4
13	Matt Schaub	HST	109	14.7	3.00	42.4	-4.5
14	Michael Vick	PHI	199	11.6	1.00	42.4	-6.2
15	Tarvaris Jackson	SEA	196	21.4	0.44	39.3	-6.4
16	Matt Cassel	KC	91	24.2	0.67	40.7	-7.2
17	Kevin Kolb	ARZ	115	26.1	1.25	48.8	-7.3
18	Tony Romo	DAL	174	20.7	1.75	56.7	-8.1
19	Curtis Painter	IND	69	23.2	0.25	32.0	-8.2
20	Matt Ryan	ATL	171	15.2	0.80	44.4	-8.4
21	Philip Rivers	SD	181	16.0	0.67	44.6	-8.9
22	Dan Orlovsky	IND	60	23.3	0.33	45.5	-9.3
23	Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	112	16.1	0.60	46.7	-10.3
24	Sam Bradford	SL	137	25.5	--	38.4	-11.6
25	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	135	15.6	0.25	43.6	-11.8
26	Rex Grossman	WAS	180	13.9	0.45	44.2	-13.3
27	Josh Freeman	TB	204	14.2	0.29	51.3	-13.9
28	Tim Tebow	DEN	150	21.3	1.00	34.4	-13.9
29	Christian Ponder	MIN	118	24.6	0.67	35.9	-14.0
30	John Skelton	ARZ	120	19.2	0.75	43.5	-14.1
31	Colt McCoy	CLV	179	18.4	0.50	46.4	-15.3
32	Blaine Gabbert	JAX	153	26.1	1.00	40.2	-17.1
33	Joe Flacco	BLT	177	17.5	0.50	44.3	-20.7
34	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	164	23.8	0.60	36.4	-25.1

 

So there’s a glancing look at how quarterbacks perform under pressure. For those inclined to ignore grades, you have the numbers and for those looking for a bit more context, enjoy the gradings. However you look at it, there’s no denying some players have some giant question marks when teams get pressure on them, and over the offseason we’ll look at some players who have stepped-up on years previous as evidence to it being possible.

 

 

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