Fantasy: Looking Ahead – Preliminary 2012 Player Rankings
It’s way too early to be doing this, but I’m going to anyways. Down below is a rough draft/preliminary look at what my 2012 Player Rankings might look like. Obviously, a ton will change because of the playoffs, off-season transactions, and the NFL Draft. Still,if you have a chance to make a trade heading into the off-season or grab a guy with some 2012 breakout potential, these rankings can’t hurt. I leaned towards PPR and note that these are 2012 redraft rankings (not dynasty!). They are also very rough and subject to plenty of change over the next few months.
| Quarterback | Tight End | |||||||
| Rk | Player | 2011 Team | Contract | Rk | Player | 2011 Team | Contract | |
| 1 | Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay | 2014 | 1 | Rob Gronkowski | New England | 2013 | |
| 2 | Drew Brees | New Orleans | UFA | 2 | Jimmy Graham | New Orleans | 2013 | |
| 3 | Tom Brady | New England | 2014 | 3 | Antonio Gates | San Diego | 2015 | |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | Detroit | 2014 | 4 | Jason Witten | Dallas | 2017 | |
| 5 | Cam Newton | Carolina | 2014 | 5 | Aaron Hernandez | New England | 2013 | |
| 6 | Michael Vick | Philadelphia | 2015 | 6 | Jermichael Finley | Green Bay | UFA | |
| 7 | Peyton Manning | Indianapolis | 2015 | 7 | Fred Davis | Washington | UFA | |
| 8 | Tony Romo | Dallas | 2013 | 8 | Vernon Davis | San Francisco | 2015 | |
| 9 | Philip Rivers | San Diego | 2015 | 9 | Tony Gonzalez | Atlanta | UFA | |
| 10 | Eli Manning | New York Giants | 2015 | 10 | Dallas Clark | Indianapolis | 2013 | |
| 11 | Ben Roethlisberger | Pittsburgh | 2015 | 11 | Jared Cook | Tennessee | 2012 | |
| 12 | Tim Tebow | Denver | 2014 | 12 | Jermaine Gresham | Cincinnati | 2014 | |
| 13 | Matt Ryan | Atlanta | 2013 | 13 | Dustin Keller | New York Jets | 2012 | |
| 14 | Mark Sanchez | New York Jets | 2013 | 14 | Brandon Pettigrew | Detroit | 2014 | |
| 15 | Jake Locker | Tennessee | 2014 | 15 | Kellen Winslow | Tampa Bay | 2014 | |
| 16 | Andy Dalton | Cincinnati | 2014 | 16 | Greg Olsen | Carolina | 2015 | |
| 17 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Buffalo | 2017 | 17 | Kyle Rudolph | Minnesota | 2014 | |
| 18 | Matt Schaub | Houston | 2012 | 18 | Owen Daniels | Houston | 2014 | |
| 19 | Carson Palmer | Oakland | 2014 | 19 | Lance Kendricks | St Louis | 2014 | |
| 20 | Jay Cutler | Chicago | 2013 | 20 | Ed Dickson | Baltimore | 2012 | |
| 21 | Joe Flacco | Baltimore | 2012 | 21 | Brent Celek | Philadelphia | 2016 | |
| 22 | Matt Moore | Miami | 2012 | 22 | Tony Moeaki | Kansas City | 2013 | |
| 23 | Josh Freeman | Tampa Bay | 2013 | 23 | Marcedes Lewis | Jacksonville | 2015 | |
| 24 | Sam Bradford | St Louis | 2015 | 24 | Jordan Cameron | Cleveland | 2014 | |
| 25 | Alex D. Smith | San Francisco | UFA | 25 | Heath Miller | Pittsburgh | 2014 | |
| 26 | Christian Ponder | Minnesota | 2014 | 26 | Martellus Bennett | Dallas | UFA | |
| 27 | Matt Cassel | Kansas City | 2014 | 27 | Dennis Pitta | Baltimore | 2012 | |
| 28 | Kevin Kolb | Arizona | 2016 | 28 | Todd Heap | Arizona | 2012 | |
| 29 | Blaine Gabbert | Jacksonville | 2014 | 29 | Scott Chandler | Buffalo | UFA | |
| 30 | Tarvaris Jackson | Seattle | 2012 | 30 | Anthony Fasano | Miami | 2012 | |
| 31 | Rex Grossman | Washington | UFA | 31 | Chris Cooley | Washington | 2013 | |
| 32 | Colt McCoy | Cleveland | 2013 | 32 | Julius Thomas | Denver | 2014 | |
| 33 | Matt Flynn | Green Bay | UFA | 33 | Jeremy Shockey | Carolina | UFA | |
| 34 | Josh Johnson | Tampa Bay | UFA | 34 | Evan Moore | Cleveland | 2013 | |
| 35 | Matt Hasselbeck | Tennessee | 2013 | 35 | Jake Ballard | New York Giants | ERFA | |
| 36 | Kyle Orton | Kansas City | UFA | 36 | Jacob Tamme | Indianapolis | UFA | |
| 37 | Jason Campbell | Oakland | UFA | 37 | Zach J. Miller | Seattle | 2015 | |
| 38 | Chad Henne | Miami | UFA | 38 | Kevin Boss | Oakland | 2014 | |
| 39 | John Skelton | Arizona | 2013 | 39 | Joel Dreessen | Houston | UFA | |
| 40 | Joe Webb | Minnesota | 2013 | 40 | Rob Housler | Arizona | 2014 | |
| 41 | Delanie Walker | San Francisco | 2013 | |||||
| 42 | Tony Scheffler | Detroit | 2013 | |||||
| 43 | Ben Watson | Cleveland | 2012 | |||||
| 44 | Visanthe Shiancoe | Minnesota | UFA | |||||
| 45 | John Carlson | Seattle | UFA | |||||
| 46 | Gary Barnidge | Carolina | 2012 | |||||
| 47 | Michael Hoomanawanui | St Louis | 2013 | |||||
| 48 | Virgil Green | Denver | 2014 | |||||
| 49 | Zach Miller | Jacksonville | 2012 | |||||
| 50 | Michael Palmer | Atlanta | ERFA | |||||
| Wide Receiver | Running Back | |||||||
| Rk | Player | 2011 Team | Contract | Rk | Player | 2011 Team | Contract | |
| 1 | Calvin Johnson | Detroit | 2012 | 1 | Arian Foster | Houston | RFA | |
| 2 | A.J. Green | Cincinnati | 2014 | 2 | Ray Rice | Baltimore | UFA | |
| 3 | Wes Welker | New England | UFA | 3 | LeSean McCoy | Philadelphia | 2012 | |
| 4 | Greg Jennings | Green Bay | 2012 | 4 | Matt Forte | Chicago | UFA | |
| 5 | Andre Johnson | Houston | 2016 | 5 | Jamaal Charles | Kansas City | 2015 | |
| 6 | Steve L. Smith | Carolina | 2012 | 6 | Ryan Mathews | San Diego | 2014 | |
| 7 | Julio Jones | Atlanta | 2014 | 7 | Marshawn Lynch | Seattle | UFA | |
| 8 | Larry Fitzgerald | Arizona | 2018 | 8 | Darren McFadden | Oakland | 2013 | |
| 9 | Hakeem Nicks | New York Giants | 2013 | 9 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jacksonville | 2013 | |
| 10 | Roddy White | Atlanta | 2014 | 10 | Chris D. Johnson | Tennessee | 2016 | |
| 11 | Kenny Britt | Tennessee | 2013 | 11 | Michael Bush | Oakland | UFA | |
| 12 | Dwayne Bowe | Kansas City | UFA | 12 | Ahmad Bradshaw | New York Giants | 2014 | |
| 13 | Mike Wallace | Pittsburgh | RFA | 13 | Demarco Murray | Dallas | 2014 | |
| 14 | Brandon Marshall | Miami | 2014 | 14 | Fred Jackson | Buffalo | 2012 | |
| 15 | Dez Bryant | Dallas | 2014 | 15 | Rashard Mendenhall | Pittsburgh | 2012 | |
| 16 | Miles Austin | Dallas | 2016 | 16 | Steven Jackson | St Louis | 2013 | |
| 17 | Vincent Jackson | San Diego | UFA | 17 | Reggie Bush | Miami | 2012 | |
| 18 | Jordy Nelson | Green Bay | 2014 | 18 | Roy Helu | Washington | 2014 | |
| 19 | Steve Johnson | Buffalo | UFA | 19 | Darren Sproles | New Orleans | 2014 | |
| 20 | Pierre Garcon | Indianapolis | UFA | 20 | Frank Gore | San Francisco | 2014 | |
| 21 | Jeremy Maclin | Philadelphia | 2013 | 21 | Adrian L. Peterson | Minnesota | 2017 | |
| 22 | Marques Colston | New Orleans | UFA | 22 | Beanie Wells | Arizona | 2013 | |
| 23 | Victor Cruz | New York Giants | 2012 | 23 | Jahvid Best | Detroit | 2014 | |
| 24 | Percy Harvin | Minnesota | 2013 | 24 | Shonn Greene | New York Jets | 2012 | |
| 25 | Antonio Brown | Pittsburgh | 2012 | 25 | Michael Turner | Atlanta | 2013 | |
| 26 | Santonio Holmes | New York Jets | 2015 | 26 | Montario Hardesty | Cleveland | 2013 | |
| 27 | Brandon Lloyd | St Louis | UFA | 27 | Peyton Hillis | Cleveland | UFA | |
| 28 | Austin Collie | Indianapolis | 2012 | 28 | Jonathan Stewart | Carolina | 2012 | |
| 29 | DeSean Jackson | Philadelphia | UFA | 29 | Stevan Ridley | New England | 2014 | |
| 30 | Demaryius Thomas | Denver | 2014 | 30 | Mark Ingram | New Orleans | 2014 | |
| 31 | Vincent Brown | San Diego | 2014 | 31 | DeAngelo Williams | Carolina | 2015 | |
| 32 | Reggie Wayne | Indianapolis | UFA | 32 | Donald Brown | Indianapolis | 2013 | |
| 33 | Denarius Moore | Oakland | 2014 | 33 | James Starks | Green Bay | 2013 | |
| 34 | Leonard Hankerson | Washington | 2014 | 34 | C.J. Spiller | Buffalo | 2014 | |
| 35 | Jacoby Ford | Oakland | 2013 | 35 | Mikel Leshoure | Detroit | 2014 | |
| 36 | Mike A. Williams | Tampa Bay | 2013 | 36 | Toby Gerhart | Minnesota | 2013 | |
| 37 | Anquan Boldin | Baltimore | 2013 | 37 | LeGarrette Blount | Tampa Bay | ERFA | |
| 38 | Greg Little | Cleveland | 2014 | 38 | Willis McGahee | Denver | 2014 | |
| 39 | Santana Moss | Washington | 2013 | 39 | Mike Tolbert | San Diego | UFA | |
| 40 | Torrey Smith | Baltimore | 2014 | 40 | Felix Jones | Dallas | 2012 | |
| 41 | Laurent Robinson | Dallas | 0 | 41 | Ryan Williams | Arizona | 2014 | |
| 42 | Sidney Rice | Seattle | 2015 | 42 | Pierre Thomas | New Orleans | 2014 | |
| 43 | Lance Moore | New Orleans | 2015 | 43 | Jacquizz Rodgers | Atlanta | 2014 | |
| 44 | Mario Manningham | New York Giants | UFA | 44 | Kendall Hunter | San Francisco | 2014 | |
| 45 | Jonathan Baldwin | Kansas City | 2014 | 45 | Dexter McCluster | Kansas City | 2013 | |
| 46 | Randall Cobb | Green Bay | 2014 | 46 | Ben Tate | Houston | 2013 | |
| 47 | Eric Decker | Denver | 2013 | 47 | Daniel Thomas | Miami | 2014 | |
| 48 | Plaxico Burress | New York Jets | UFA | 48 | Cedric Benson | Cincinnati | UFA | |
| 49 | Malcom Floyd | San Diego | 2012 | 49 | Brandon Jacobs | New York Giants | 2012 | |
| 50 | Damian Williams | Tennessee | 2013 | 50 | Joseph Addai | Indianapolis | 2013 | |
| 51 | Robert Meachem | New Orleans | UFA | 51 | Shane Vereen | New England | 2014 | |
| 52 | Michael Crabtree | San Francisco | 2014 | 52 | Delone Carter | Indianapolis | 2014 | |
| 53 | Golden Tate | Seattle | 2013 | 53 | Isaac Redman | Pittsburgh | ERFA | |
| 54 | Earl Bennett | Chicago | 2015 | 54 | Danny Woodhead | New England | 2012 | |
| 55 | Titus Young | Detroit | 2014 | 55 | Evan Royster | Washington | 2014 | |
| 56 | James Jones | Green Bay | 2013 | 56 | Javon Ringer | Tennessee | 2012 | |
| 57 | Jerome Simpson | Cincinnati | UFA | 57 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | New England | UFA | |
| 58 | Johnny Knox | Chicago | 2012 | 58 | Ryan Grant | Green Bay | UFA | |
| 59 | Greg Salas | St Louis | 2014 | 59 | Joe McKnight | New York Jets | 2013 | |
| 60 | Jordan Shipley | Cincinnati | 2013 | 60 | Rashad Jennings | Jacksonville | 2012 | |
| 61 | Brandon LaFell | Carolina | 2013 | 61 | Tim Hightower | Washington | UFA | |
| 62 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Oakland | 2013 | 62 | Kevin Smith | Detroit | UFA | |
| 63 | Danny Amendola | St Louis | UFA | 63 | Alex Green | Green Bay | 2014 | |
| 64 | Mike Thomas | Jacksonville | 2015 | 64 | Jason Snelling | Atlanta | UFA | |
| 65 | Emmanuel Sanders | Pittsburgh | 2012 | 65 | Knowshon Moreno | Denver | 2013 | |
| 66 | Jeremy Kerley | New York Jets | 2014 | 66 | Bilal Powell | New York Jets | 2014 | |
| 67 | Doug Baldwin | Seattle | UDFA | 67 | Taiwan Jones | Oakland | 2014 | |
| 68 | Andre Roberts | Arizona | 2013 | 68 | Dion Lewis | Philadelphia | 2014 | |
| 69 | Steve Breaston | Kansas City | 2015 | 69 | Marion Barber III | Chicago | 2012 | |
| 70 | Arrelious Benn | Tampa Bay | 2013 | 70 | LaDainian Tomlinson | New York Jets | UFA | |
| 71 | Chad Ochocinco | New England | 2013 | 71 | Ricky Williams | Baltimore | 2012 | |
| 72 | Roscoe Parrish | Buffalo | UFA | 72 | Chris Ivory | New Orleans | 2012 | |
| 73 | Nate Burleson | Detroit | 2014 | 73 | Bernard Scott | Cincinnati | 2012 | |
| 74 | Nate Washington | Tennessee | 2014 | 74 | Justin Forsett | Seattle | UFA | |
| 75 | Devery Henderson | New Orleans | 2012 | 75 | John Kuhn | Green Bay | 2013 | |
Please explain to me how AJ Green is 2nd, and how Julio Jones and Kenny Britt are ranked higher than Wallace or Brandon Marshall? The uncertainty of their team and QB, respectively? AJ Green I can understand being ranked higher than them, but not at 2. Julio Jones and Kenny Britt have shown they can have 1 or 2 big games a season then disappear for most and throw in a couple decent games. Jones has also shown the propensity to choke during clutch moments causing him to lose points or not gain a TD for a fantasy team, a trait that also keeps a guy from being a stud. I understand that it’s possible that with a full off-season these rankings could be true and that potential should also be valued, but it seems as if potential is being overvalued in these rankings. What about the dreaded sophomore slump? With two sophomores in Dalton and Green there’s twice the chance of that occurring. Look at Mike Williams for example, but I do agree that his rookie season was more of a fluke, but with more tape and a full off-season teams may have more against Dalton and Green too.
You also forgot Kaepernick and Hoyer might be a name to keep track of too. For a late guy, I would take potential in Kaepernick or Hoyer over low ceiling guys like Henne, Skelton, and Webb.
Wallace is an intriguing one, but Brown is emerging and actually has led that team in targets quite a bit. Sanders will also come into 2012 healthy. PIT will run when they can – unlike a lot of other teams – which costs him some value. Marshall is finally scoring TDs, but he’s far from a slam dunk and more like a back-end WR1 than an elite guy. AJ is a guy I have as a Top 5 option NOW almost weekly and I really feel like he becomes a Fantasy elite next year. Julio has more raw talent than Roddy and will quickly become the better FF WR. Britt was a top FF WR before his injury and he will be back there next year. Think Hakeem Nicks production…especially with Locker taking over, who I also like. Jones is/was a rookie…he’ll improve. Regarding Tampa Bay, they had arguably the easiest schedule in NFL history in 2010. I was very down on him in my preliminary 2011 rankings and I feel that I was on the right track. Regarding the Cincy offense, I’ve been high on their 2012 prospects since before this season. I felt like they were one year away. Dalton-(Michael Bush…wait for it)-AJ Green-Gresham-Shipley-and a WR2 TBA has serious potential. I’m high on them.
Not forgetting anyone. Trust me. Kaepernick isn’t starting next year. Unless he embarrasses himself big time, Alex Smith will get another year or 2 in San Fran. Hoyer just missed the cut, but he’s very situation dependent. Not a bad point on the low upside guys, but they have a better shot at starting 2012 as a starter than CK/BH. Remember, this is redraft, not dynasty. Heading into 2011, you’ve would’ve grabbed a guy like Orton as your QB2 over Kaepernick. Similar principle here.
Thanks for the feedback. I’ll have ton of analysis over the next month or so.
How is Mike Williams a fluke for having a bad sophomore campaign? His rookie year was only one year, but so was this one. Tampa Bay was deficient in nearly every aspect of the game on both sides of the ball. Look at Steve Smith (CAR)’s re-emergence. A full off season WITH training camp and a decent draft for Tampa Bay could easily push him inside the top 20 for 2012.
It’s amazing how many wide receivers that are ranked in the top 20 don’t actually end up in the top 20. This is even more true of the top 10.
I would say both seasons are a bit fluky. Year 1 his TD rate was insane, but against arguably the easiest schedule in NFL history. Year 2 saw him fall victim to a pathetic offense with a predictable pass-first strategy and no run game. Things should even out in 2012, but I don’t expect a huge season. I’m not as high on Freeman as some, especially considering that he’s not about to unleash his skills as an elite down-field passer. Williams could see an upgrade as the off-season goes on, but WR3 is relatively safe as of now.
Mike: Big fan of you and the site. Great “numbers behind the numbers” which I find are essential to winning in fantasy football.
Will you guys be doing player rankings for the playoffs? I’m in a fantasy playoffs league and would like to hear what you guys have to say.
Thanks.
Yes, I’ll have full projections/rankings for each round. Thanks for the kind words.