Fantasy: IDP Stock Market – Week 13

| December 1, 2011

David HawthorneIDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.

Buy:

London Fletcher-Baker – LB – Washington Redskins

Like a fine wine, London Fletcher-Baker seems to getting better with age. The NFL is like all professional sports; there is a point in a player’s career when you can expect their ability to perform at a high level to begin to wane, but Fletcher-Baker (along with Ray Lewis) manages to play a highly physical position in a ultra-competitive game without an marked depreciation of his skills. So far this year Fletcher-Baker has recorded a +14.1 PFF grade, the 2nd best for all Redskins and #10 for all ILBs, above more popular IDP options like Brian Urlacher and Desmond Bishop. He has also notched up an impressive 94 total tackles (71 solo) on just 718 snaps, which is an impressive frequency of a tackle every 7.6 snaps. With Fletcher averaging 65.3 snaps per game, his projected tackle total for the season will be 136.8 which would be his 2nd best total as a Redskin. Fletcher has been a reliable scorer as always, providing 4 games of double-digit total tackles and a further 4 games with nine TT, so don’t be lulled into keeping on the bench for a younger, higher profile linebacker.

Da’Norris Searcy – S – Buffalo Bills

When a rookie flashes a glimmer of potential you need to move fast, and you might have missed the boat on Da’Norris Searcy, as he recorded 11 total tackles in his first NFL start replacing our #1 fantasy safety George Wilson. However, an underwhelming week 12 performance of only 3 solo tackles in 60 snaps might have made owners think twice before picking him up. Don’t fall into that trap. At 220lbs Searcy is a typical in-the-box strong safety and 10 of his 17 total tackles have been ‘stops’. Searcy has also graded +3.7 in run defense in his 2.5 games replacing Wilson, a sign that bodes well for his fantasy future in a traditionally productive role (see Wilson, George 2009 & 2011 and Whitner, Donte 2010). The fact that Wilson himself was relegated to Whitner’s backup in 2010 after a solid ’09 campaign makes the Bill’s 4th round pick even more appealing long term. In the short term Wilson’s injury has not been cleared and there is a chance he could find himself on IR, so Searcy could be a great addition to your roster for the fantasy play-offs.

Hold:

David Hawthorne – LB – Seattle Seahawks

Many David Hawthorne owners started the season thinking they had found themselves a bargain based on his level of production in 2009 and 2010, despite not being an everydown linebacker. In weeks 1 and 2 of the regular season Hawthorne was not living up to those lofty expectations as he only saw the field for 67.1% of snaps and it appeared he would not be handed a 3 down role. Since then however Hawthorne had played every snap, up until a week 12 knee injury put him on the sidelines for 12 plays (he did return to the game). Since becoming an everydown player in week 3 Hawthorne has averaged 5.9 solo tackles a game and has also added a sack, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble, even though he has only had 1 double-digit tackle game. A model of consistency, he should still be treated as a good LB2 with LB1 potential and still represents great value for most of the fantasy teams that drafted him.

 

Sell:

Morgan Burnett – S – Green Bay Packers

One of the best starts to a fantasy season this year came from Morgan Burnett who padded his excellent tackle numbers (43 total) with 3 interceptions, a sack, 2 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in just 6 games. It was a level of play that was unlikely to be sustained and that has certainly showed over his last 5 performances in which he has failed to record a single big play and only 23 total tackles. In fact his tackles numbers have read 3,2,4,8,6 and has graded -1.8 compared to +0.3 in the 6 games previously. Burnett has seen a slight increase in his pass-rushes (1.24% to 2.45%) and run plays (30.94% to 33.13%) and a decline in his targets per game (3.33 down to 1.67), so his poorer play is being compounded by having less opportunities to make interceptions and tackle receivers.

 

Questions and comments are welcome - @PFF_RossMiles

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