Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – 2011 Rookie Comparisons

| 2011/11/24

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. It is a time to gather with family and eat great food without the pressure of giving gifts. The best part of the day is having a full slate of NFL games to go with it. Before you are stuffed on turkey and mashed potatoes, I have a special holiday edition of the Dynasty Slants. This week you will find an exhaustive list of current rookies compared to current veteran players. Mostly this is for fun, but while some comparisons might be a stretch, as I researched this further there were several that were spot on.

Thank you for reading this week, and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your families. Here are the slants:

Rookie Comparisons

Player comparisons are like Mock Drafts; you find either them useful or a waste of time. I have always viewed them as the former, and these exercises can help you better evaluate your dynasty league team for current and future success.

For this exercise, I complied a listing of 23 rookies from the 2011 NFL Draft class. Each was compared to a veteran player from either the 2009 or 2010 NFL season using the premium statistics found only at Pro Football Focus. The metrics used to determine the comparisons where:

  • *Fantasy Points per Snap
  • **Fantasy Points per Opportunity (rush attempts, pass attempts, pass routes run)

Remember this exercise is for fun. I have made every effort to compare players with similar body types, but this will not be perfect.

Quarterback

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 QB Cam Newton CAR 10 650 281 0.43 0.61 28.1
2010 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 15 919 400 0.44 0.67 26.7

This is not to say Cam Newton will become Aaron Rodgers, but the fantasy numbers are eerily similar because of Newton’s success on the ground. Newton is behind the pace set last year by Michael Vick, and that may be a better comparison if the metrics matched up. Newton should be regarded as a top-five dynasty quarterback until he proves otherwise.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 QB Andy Dalton CIN 10 610 189 0.31 0.52 18.9
2010 QB Eli Manning NYG 16 1083 337 0.31 0.55 21.0

Andy Dalton would be the Rookie of the Year any other year that did not include Cam Newton. Much like Manning has been for his career, Dalton can expect to finish between the top-10 and top-20 fantasy quarterbacks each year.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 QB Christian Ponder MIN 5 269 76 0.28 0.44 15.2
2009 QB David Garrard JAX 16 1053 288 0.27 0.44 18.0

Christian Ponder was a tough comparison because of his unexpected rushing success. He could be a steady fantasy option as David Garrard was late in his career.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 QB Jake Locker TEN 3 34 21 0.61 0.86 6.9
2010 QB Tim Tebow DEN 9 213 115 0.54 0.84 12.7

Jake Locker has a few things in common with Tim Tebow – namely a low completion percentage (47.6%) and the ability to score fantasy points quickly. Locker scored 21 fantasy points off the bench in Week 11. As Locker gains more experience his completion percentage will increase, but his scrambling ability adds more fantasy value than most. He is an interesting dynasty prospect to say the least.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 QB Blaine Gabbert JAX 9 509 95 0.19 0.34 10.6
2009 QB Mark Sanchez NYJ 15 960 174 0.18 0.39 11.6

Both quarterbacks were regarded as pro-ready, but Gabbert has struggled much like Sanchez did in his rookie season. It is too early to right off Gabbert, but he needs to improve quickly as a passer.

Running Back

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB DeMarco Murray DAL 10 276 120 0.43 0.51 12.0
2009 HB DeAngelo Williams CAR 13 499 205 0.41 0.47 15.8

DeMarco Murray is the talk of the fantasy world at this moment. He is also a tough prospect to find an accurate comparison. He shares some metric similarity with his fellow Oklahoma alum Adrian Peterson. However, Murray is not the physical specimen that Peterson is. DeAngelo Williams is a safer bet, and a cautionary tale that with a higher workload could come injury problems. Regardless, Murray is a fantastic dynasty option.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Daniel Thomas MIA 7 242 57 0.23 0.33 8.1
2010 HB James Starks GB 3 59 14 0.23 0.31 4.5

Daniel Thomas and James Starks share injury riddled rookie seasons, but the sample size shows that Thomas could have similar success as Starks has once healthy.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Mark Ingram NO 8 166 63 0.38 0.43 7.9
2010 HB Matt Forte CHI 16 706 264 0.37 0.50 16.5

Mark Ingram has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. His heel injury derailed the high expectations surrounding him and now faces increased competition in the Saints backfield. If you remain patient with Ingram, he is a similar player to Matt Forte and his usage could mirror the Chicago back next season.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Delone Carter IND 10 197 48 0.24 0.30 4.8
2009 HB Chris Brown HST 14 275 65 0.24 0.32 4.7

Delone Carter seems destined to a power back role in the similar mold of a Chris Brown. A no-nonsense runner who gets the job done.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Kendall Hunter SF 9 145 56 0.38 0.45 6.2
2009 HB Frank Gore SF 14 739 280 0.38 0.50 20.0

Kendall Hunter is not nearly the athlete that Frank Gore is, but given the same opportunity in the run-heavy San Francisco offense, could produce similar results.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Roy Helu WAS 10 280 77 0.28 0.34 7.7
2009 HB Maurice Morris DET 14 350 96 0.28 0.37 6.9

Roy Helu looks more like a utility back in the mold of a Maurice Morris than a featured runner. Given the opportunity, Helu could produce consistently in PPR leagues. However, he is not someone to build your dynasty team around.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 HB Stevan Ridley NE 7 62 30 0.48 0.55 4.2
2009 HB Pierre Thomas NO 14 381 195 0.51 0.58 13.9

Stevan Ridley and Pierre Thomas are both lunch-pail runners that fight for carries among more talented runners. Ridley may never be a feature back, but he will earn playing time over the next few seasons for New England.

Wide Receiver

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR A.J. Green CIN 9 504 141 0.28 0.49 15.6
2009 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 16 1006 284 0.28 0.44 17.8

A.J. Green is living up to the hype as a rookie, ranking just outside the top-10 wide receivers in PPR leagues. Like Larry Fitzgerald, Green has the ability to make acrobatic catches as a matchup nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. The scary thing is that Green can improve even more as he learns the NFL game.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Greg Little CLV 10 566 86 0.15 0.24 8.6
2010 WR Eric Decker DEN 10 141 22 0.15 0.30 2.2

Greg Little has been a disappointment so far, failing to catch his first touchdown pass through 10 games. Little is a bigger possession wide receiver, but because of his lack of production so far, it was tough to find an accurate comparison that matched his skill set. Little will be a better player than Decker in the end, but until he produces on the field – we are left with this comparison.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Julio Jones ATL 7 339 96 0.28 0.43 13.7
2010 WR Vincent Jackson SD 5 221 57 0.26 0.48 11.4

Julio Jones was supposed to rival A.J. Green as a rookie, but his hamstring has kept him off the field on several occasions. We saw Jones’ explosive playmaking ability against the Colts (3 rec., 131 yards, 2 TD), which is similar to another player prone to similar breakouts: Vincent Jackson.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Jonathan Baldwin KC 5 187 31 0.17 0.24 6.2
2009 WR Roy E. Williams DAL 15 823 139 0.17 0.27 9.2

Jonathan Baldwin has flashed some of the ability that led the Chiefs to select him in the first round, but he has been rather inconsistent. A comparison to Roy Williams might seem unfair; however, Baldwin needs to become a reliable weekly option for Kansas City.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Denarius Moore OAK 10 441 100 0.23 0.39 10.0
2009 WR Santonio Holmes PIT 16 1040 232 0.22 0.37 14.5

Denarius Moore has been one of the biggest rookie surprises in redraft and dynasty leagues. He has been inconsistently week-to-week, but has shown a propensity to make big plays look easy. Like Holmes, Moore is a fluid athlete that is only going to improve going forward.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Torrey Smith BLT 10 516 121 0.23 0.34 12.1
2010 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 16 978 229 0.23 0.35 14.3

Torrey Smith has been a regular on highlight reels because of his long touchdown grabs. Smith needs to develop his intermediate game to become a more complete receiver. Jeremy Maclin also faced those same concerns coming out of Missouri.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Randall Cobb GB 10 133 45 0.33 0.49 4.5
2010 WR Percy Harvin MIN 14 648 205 0.32 0.51 14.6

Randall Cobb has been electric in the return game and the Packers hope to envision him as their version of Percy Harvin for the near future.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Leonard Hankerson WAS 4 116 29 0.25 0.32 7.3
2009 WR Nate Burleson SEA 13 736 162 0.22 0.33 12.4

Leonard Hankerson was lost for the season but should be monitored next season if he can carve out a role similar to Nate Burleson in the NFL.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 WR Vincent Brown SD 8 210 39 0.19 0.24 4.9
2010 WR Steve Breaston ARZ 13 694 129 0.19 0.26 9.9

Vincent Brown may have to bide his time like Steve Breaston did in Arizona, but the talent is there once the opportunity presents itself in the San Diego offense.

Tight End

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 10 263 41 0.15 0.34 4.1
2009 TE Todd Heap BLT 16 983 147 0.15 0.33 9.2

Kyle Rudolph could have a similar role that Todd Heap did in his prime as a goal line threat. He is also a similar player to Zach J. Miller of Seattle.

Year Pos Name Team Games Snaps FP FP / SN* FP / Opp** FP / Gm
2011 TE Lance Kendricks SL 9 293 36 0.12 0.20 3.9
2010 TE Martellus Bennett DAL 16 495 58 0.12 0.32 3.6

Lance Kendricks has disappointed so far in career, much as Martellus Bennett has in Dallas. The jury is still out on Kendricks. He needs to show major improvement by next season to remain a key part of the Rams offense.

Quick Slants

Kevin Smith has made an impressive return to the NFL. He has always been a talented runner that struggled with injuries. In two games, Smith’s 0.64 fantasy points scored per snap is twice as high as it has been at any point in his career (2010 0.22, 2009 0.29, 2008 0.29). Oh, and he is averaging 4.7 yards rushing after contact.

Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker are the only two receivers in the league averaging over 10 targets per game. Lloyd’s dynasty price tag is modest at this point, and if he remains in St. Louis, you could get a few more years of WR1 type production from him.

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Ask Bryan Fontaine for dynasty league advice on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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