After being suspended for 4 games last season, Santonio Holmes fell from the graces of a top dynasty WR selection, often viewed as a potential #1 WR to a low-end #2 WR. Others suggest that being in the Jets’ offense inhibits him from being a top fantasy receiver, resulting in the low-end #2 WR ranking.
Well, frankly, those are misconceptions.
Holmes deserves to be considered a #1 WR in the fantasy world, even if he re-signs with the Jets when the lockout is lifted. He’s still only 27 years old and shows signs of continued 1,000 yard plus season capability. Concerned about his off the field issues? Don’t be. With the Jets last season, he showed increased maturity in becoming a team leader and focusing his off the field efforts to charity work.
To put things in perspective, here are the current rankings and average draft positions for Holmes in dynasty:
- Bryan Fontaine (Pro Football Focus) – #15 WR
- Footballguys (consensus) – #16 WR
- Dynasty League Football (DLF) – #28 WR
- Rotoworld – #24 WR
- Recent Startup ADP – #25 WR
While I appreciate Fontaine and Footballguys ranking Holmes where he belongs, it’s clear that the masses aren’t biting with his ADP around WR#25. As you can see, the masses seem to be on the same page as DLF and Rotoworld in the mid-20 range. Based on that and looking at Holmes’ 2010 performance, he’s currently undervalued and offers significant value at his current draft/value position.
Holmes versus 2010 Top 25 Receivers
(Includes 2010 top 25 WRs less Santana Moss and Terrell Owens who are considerably older and are never considered in the WR#25 range, plus other dynasty WRs currently drafted/ranked ahead of Holmes)
|Player||FP||FP/Snap||FP/Opp||FP/Week||TA / Pass Route||TA/Drop|
|16||Mike A. Williams||222.5||0.23||0.39||13.91||21%||11|
The above shows us the following:
- Holmes ranked #13 in Fantasy Points (FP)/Snap
- Holmes ranked #12 in FP/Opportunity (times involved in play)
- Holmes ranked #21 in FP/Week
- Holmes ranked #9 in Targets/Routes Run
- Holmes ranked #15 in Targets/Drops
His FP/Snap and FP/Opportunity scream value, but the FP/Week seems to support ranking Holmes in the WR#20+ range. Drilling deeper into Holmes’ season though, we see that in weeks 6 and 7 he only played limited snaps after returning from suspension. From week 8 through the end of the season, Holmes started every game or played the lion’s share of snaps. To add to that, in week 17 the Jets already clinched the playoffs and Holmes didn’t play much, hurting his FP/week. Based on that, let’s look at week 8 through 16, which are true indicators of his performance:
Holmes’ FP/week based on the above is 15.3 which would rank him at WR#12. Yes, #12 folks.
Now, let’s take on the comment that if Holmes re-signs with the Jets, his value takes a hit. Well, considering the games started with the Jets above over a 16 game season, Holmes’ numbers would rank him at WR#11 (see extrapolated numbers above). What’s that you say? I can’t extrapolate his TDs? Ok, so let’s say his TDs flat line at 5. His total FP would be 222, which would rank him at WR#16. That’s still considerably higher than he’s being drafted or ranked. With the number of passes Sanchez targeted Holmes in key situations or in the red zone, I’d be willing to bet we’d see more than 5 TDs in a 16 game season with the Jets.
Bottom line: target Holmes/draft Holmes.
Holmes performed at a top level in 2010 with the Jets and, for some reason, many discount that. Don’t be fooled. The numbers don’t lie. All signs point to Holmes as a top notch WR in dynasty.