Pressure Reveals

• Tweet
• Share by Email

I’ve recently being looking into some of the elements that factor in to making a good or bad quarterback. I broke down some numbers looking at the deep ball, and recently followed it by looking at how quarterbacks cope when blitzed.

That leads in quite nicely to the next piece. Pressure.

You give most quarterbacks a lot of time and they’ll punish you. You put them in an uncomfortable situation with a 280-pound monster coming at them, and suddenly mistakes come about a lot more freely.

Pressure was something we saw plenty of last year. Whether it was something in their Gatorade or just one of those years, the pass rushers really seemed to get the better of their offensive line counterparts. The end result being a heck of a lot of quarterbacks put under pressure.

That generates the question for this study. Who performed the best under pressure?  So let’s examine that. (Note: for this piece we looked at all quarterbacks who dropped back from center at least 200 times.)
 

Who Is Getting Pressured

Before getting into the performance aspects, let’s look at which quarterbacks spent most of their time under pressure. It shouldn’t be looked at as the teams allowing the most pressure necessarily had the worst pass blocking offensive line, there are other things to consider. Such as: which teams keep the most men in to help, how well those extra blockers performed, the quarterback’s ability to get rid of the ball in a timely fashion, and his willingness to let pressure mount confident in his ability to dodge it.
 
That said, the Chicago line was brutal this year, so it’s no surprise Jay Cutler is at the top of the charts. More interesting is that below him we have four of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league. Players like Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, David Garrard and Ben Roethlisberger are players who, because of physical attributes that allow them to often shake off rushers, can afford to let a little more pressure get their way in the hopes of making a play.
 

Percentage of Drop Backs Under Pressure

Rank	Player	Team	Drop backs	% Pressured
1	Jay Cutler	CHI	565	41.42%
2	Josh Freeman	TB	544	40.99%
3	Michael Vick	PHI	510	40.78%
4	Donovan McNabb	WAS	525	40.38%
5	Jason Campbell	OAK	388	39.69%
6	Derek Anderson	ARZ	355	38.87%
7	David Garrard	JAX	421	37.77%
8	Alex D. Smith	SF	375	36.00%
9	Matt Cassel	KC	519	35.65%
10	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	546	35.53%
11	Philip Rivers	SD	591	34.86%
12	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	344	34.59%
13	Sam Bradford	SL	640	34.06%
14	Brett Favre	MIN	383	33.68%
15	Kerry Collins	TEN	292	33.56%
16	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	494	33.20%
17	Joe Flacco	BLT	618	33.01%
18	Kevin Kolb	PHI	211	32.70%
19	Kyle Orton	DEN	545	31.56%
20	Matt Ryan	ATL	650	31.23%
21	Eli Manning	NYG	565	30.62%
22	Matt Schaub	HST	611	30.28%
23	Tom Brady	NE	572	29.90%
24	Chad Henne	MIA	540	29.63%
25	Tony Romo	DAL	223	29.60%
26	Colt McCoy	CLV	261	29.50%
27	Shaun Hill	DET	448	29.02%
28	Aaron Rodgers	GB	695	28.49%
29	Drew Brees	NO	747	28.11%
30	Carson Palmer	CIN	620	28.06%
31	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	640	27.66%
32	Peyton Manning	IND	724	25.55%
33	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	566	24.91%
34	Jon Kitna	DAL	357	24.65%

 

Meanwhile, down at the bottom you’ve got a mixture of guys who benefit from good protection (like Mark Sanchez) to guys who know if they don’t get rid of it quick then their protection is going to get them hit (Peyton Manning). For every player, the type of quarterback they are and situation they’re in has more to do with the percentage of plays they’re pressured on than just attributing it to a fault of the offensive line.
 

Completion Percentage

Moving into the realm of analyzing how players dealt with pressure, we’ll start with the most obvious tool: completion percentage. It may surprise you who the top dog is, with Kevin Kolb narrowly beating out Jon Kitna. Before people get too worked up about this, some things need to be taken into consideration. Firstly, both Kitna and Kolb faced a relatively low amount of pressure which makes their sample size small, but more importantly, while their completion percentage when pressured was impressive, the amount of pressure they let turn into sacks wasn’t. Nearly a quarter of the pressure they faced brought them to the ground. You can see the more elite quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Ryan) took considerably fewer.
 
You can also see in the last column which players’ completion percentages are affected most in pressure situations. It’s not pretty in the AFC East where Mark Sanchez has the largest drop when pressured, followed by Chad Henne, and Ryan Fitzpatrick finishing fifth. Once again, Tom Brady saves some respectability for the division, with only 14 players having less of a fall (not bad when you consider Brady completes 70.1% of passes when not pressured (eighth in the league).
 

Completion and Sack Percentages When Pressured

Rank	Player	Team	Sack % w / Pressure	Comp.% w / Pressure	Change in Comp. % w / Pressure
1	Kevin Kolb	PHI	23.19%	59.18%	-2.24%
2	Jon Kitna	DAL	23.86%	59.02%	-8.30%
3	Drew Brees	NO	12.38%	55.74%	-16.22%
4	Peyton Manning	IND	9.19%	54.49%	-15.45%
5	Tony Romo	DAL	10.61%	54.39%	-20.61%
6	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	22.70%	53.70%	-7.69%
7	Tom Brady	NE	17.54%	53.24%	-16.86%
8	Carson Palmer	CIN	14.94%	52.78%	-11.85%
9	Philip Rivers	SD	18.45%	52.76%	-18.93%
10	Matt Ryan	ATL	13.79%	52.66%	-14.16%
11	Jay Cutler	CHI	23.93%	52.20%	-10.97%
12	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	21.13%	51.75%	-13.53%
13	Jason Campbell	OAK	21.43%	50.91%	-12.10%
14	Josh Freeman	TB	12.56%	50.90%	-16.20%
15	David Garrard	JAX	20.13%	50.43%	-20.48%
16	Aaron Rodgers	GB	19.19%	49.30%	-22.10%
17	Kyle Orton	DEN	19.77%	49.22%	-12.94%
18	Shaun Hill	DET	13.08%	47.62%	-18.94%
19	Brett Favre	MIN	16.28%	47.17%	-19.10%
20	Joe Flacco	BLT	24.02%	46.94%	-21.53%
21	Derek Anderson	ARZ	18.12%	46.85%	-7.32%
22	Kerry Collins	TEN	13.27%	45.88%	-16.81%
23	Matt Schaub	HST	17.30%	45.10%	-25.21%
24	Eli Manning	NYG	9.25%	44.74%	-25.29%
25	Michael Vick	PHI	17.79%	44.36%	-26.18%
26	Matt Cassel	KC	15.14%	43.36%	-20.95%
27	Sam Bradford	SL	15.14%	43.35%	-23.55%
28	Donovan McNabb	WAS	17.45%	41.76%	-25.78%
29	Colt McCoy	CLV	29.87%	41.67%	-24.43%
30	Chad Henne	MIA	18.75%	41.53%	-26.30%
31	Alex D. Smith	SF	18.52%	41.51%	-26.29%
32	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	14.02%	39.20%	-25.99%
33	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	27.73%	39.02%	-18.32%
34	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	16.95%	35.46%	-26.52%

 

Mark Sanchez is a particular worry. He’s afforded some of the best protection in the NFL, but when that protection is pierced, he crumbles. His 35.46% just isn’t good enough, though he does do a good job of staving off sacks.
 

Turning It Over

Avoiding sacks isn’t the only thing Sanchez does well when he’s faced with pressure. The 2.82% of his pressured throws that ended up as interceptions is the 18th lowest figure, so, respectable enough. It’s not as good as Matt Ryan (0.49%) or Tom Brady (0.58%) but then their numbers are verging on the miraculous. Ryan in particular has an amazing touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is pressured.
 
Ryan isn’t at the top in percentage of pressured passes that go for touchdowns; both Kevin Kolb and Eli Manning finished with a higher percentage. But, you have to take into account that Kolb was working with a smaller sample size, and Eli also had the second highest percentage of throws under pressure ending up in interceptions (he can thank Brett Favre for not finishing with the highest). So good was Ryan under pressure when it came to throwing touchdowns and not picks, that his ratio of touchdowns to interceptions (10:1) was superior to all others by a large distance, with only really Tom Brady getting close.
 
Special credit as well to Josh Freeman. He managed to finish with the third best TD:INT ratio as well as the fifth lowest percentage of interceptions and fourth highest percentage of touchdowns when throwing under pressure.
 

Touchdown to Interception Ratio When Pressured

Rank	Player	Team	TD % w / Pressure	INT % w / Pressure	TD:INT w / Pressure
1	Matt Ryan	ATL	4.93%	0.49%	10.00
2	Tom Brady	NE	3.51%	0.58%	6.00
3	Josh Freeman	TB	4.48%	1.35%	3.33
4	Kevin Kolb	PHI	7.25%	2.90%	2.50
5	Tony Romo	DAL	3.03%	1.52%	2.00
6	Jon Kitna	DAL	2.27%	1.14%	2.00
7	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	3.61%	2.06%	1.75
8	Alex D. Smith	SF	3.70%	2.22%	1.67
9	Matt Cassel	KC	3.78%	2.70%	1.40
10	Joe Flacco	BLT	2.45%	1.96%	1.25
11	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	3.39%	2.82%	1.20
12	Michael Vick	PHI	2.88%	2.40%	1.20
13	Philip Rivers	SD	2.91%	2.43%	1.20
14	David Garrard	JAX	3.77%	3.14%	1.20
15	Eli Manning	NYG	5.78%	5.20%	1.11
16	Kerry Collins	TEN	2.04%	2.04%	1.00
17	Matt Schaub	HST	2.70%	2.70%	1.00
18	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	0.84%	0.84%	1.00
19	Colt McCoy	CLV	3.90%	3.90%	1.00
20	Carson Palmer	CIN	2.87%	3.45%	0.83
21	Chad Henne	MIA	2.50%	3.13%	0.80
22	Peyton Manning	IND	3.24%	4.32%	0.75
23	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	2.13%	2.84%	0.75
24	Aaron Rodgers	GB	2.53%	3.54%	0.71
25	Jay Cutler	CHI	2.14%	2.99%	0.71
26	Drew Brees	NO	2.86%	4.29%	0.67
27	Sam Bradford	SL	1.83%	2.75%	0.67
28	Kyle Orton	DEN	2.33%	3.49%	0.67
29	Jason Campbell	OAK	1.95%	3.90%	0.50
30	Brett Favre	MIN	3.10%	6.98%	0.44
31	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	1.22%	3.05%	0.40
32	Shaun Hill	DET	0.77%	2.31%	0.33
33	Derek Anderson	ARZ	0.72%	2.17%	0.33
34	Donovan McNabb	WAS	0.94%	3.30%	0.29

 

Down at the bottom we’ve got Donovan McNabb, and you probably have a better idea why the Redskins haven’t exactly bought into the long time Eagle. When put behind a shaky offensive line, the mistakes kept coming, he threw just two touchdowns compared to seven interceptions when pressured.
 

Grading

So now we come to our final breakdown. Grading. We pride ourselves on our ability to apply our set of standards to every play and grade objectively and we’ve got some grades here for when QB’s were pressured. This won’t just look into their ability to throw since we grade on a number of facets of each play (when they hold onto the ball too long, etc.). It encompasses quite a lot and explains why we’re so high on certain players.
 

PFF Grades When Pressured

Rank	Player	Team	QB Rating w / Pressure	Grade w / Pressure
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	60.9	19.0
2	Peyton Manning	IND	67.4	16.0
3	Matt Ryan	ATL	86.5	13.5
4	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	81.1	11.5
5	Josh Freeman	TB	79.4	11.0
6	Philip Rivers	SD	74.3	11.0
7	Michael Vick	PHI	65.3	8.5
8	Shaun Hill	DET	52.0	8.0
9	Tom Brady	NE	84.5	7.5
10	Carson Palmer	CIN	63.9	7.5
11	Colt McCoy	CLV	53.8	7.0
12	Tony Romo	DAL	80.6	7.0
13	Jay Cutler	CHI	68.9	7.0
14	Eli Manning	NYG	61.0	4.5
15	David Garrard	JAX	67.2	4.5
16	Drew Brees	NO	64.3	3.0
17	Jason Campbell	OAK	60.6	1.5
18	Matt Cassel	KC	63.2	0.5
19	Matt Schaub	HST	58.7	0.5
20	Kyle Orton	DEN	62.4	0.5
21	Alex D. Smith	SF	66.1	0.0
22	Jon Kitna	DAL	78.7	0.0
23	Jimmy Clausen	CAR	50.3	-1.0
24	Kevin Kolb	PHI	91.4	-1.5
25	Kerry Collins	TEN	61.8	-1.5
26	Sam Bradford	SL	51.0	-1.5
27	Derek Anderson	ARZ	56.1	-1.5
28	Joe Flacco	BLT	64.0	-2.5
29	Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	67.7	-4.0
30	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	44.0	-4.5
31	Chad Henne	MIA	48.8	-5.5
32	Mark Sanchez	NYJ	51.9	-6.5
33	Brett Favre	MIN	43.2	-7.5
34	Donovan McNabb	WAS	46.7	-10.0

 

It also explains a little bit about why I was dumbfounded to see Donovan McNabb make any top 100 list based on his 2010 performance. Perhaps the most telling aspect of it all, though, is how pressure highlights flaws. Mark Sanchez may have plenty of playoff wins, but it should concern Jets fans that the reason he needs to win them on the road largely boils down to his play (the rest of the team is as talented as any in the NFL). If there’s one area he needs to improve in, it’s how he handles pressure. If he can do this, you’d be more inclined to agree with Rex Ryan’s assessment that a Super Bowl is going to be heading to the green & white half of New York.
 
When I look at how quarterbacks deal with being pressured, it tells me a lot about their value in the league. It’s turning a potentially negative play into something positive; some guys can do it, and some guys can’t.
 
When it’s all said and done, I’m a lot happier having the former guy, than the latter playing quarterback for me.