Fantasy: Early 2011 ADP indications
Early Average Draft Position (ADP) data is in from the first dozen or so Draftmaster leagues. Although ADPs will continue to fluctuate, especially once the rookie draft and free agency roll around, it’s never too early to start taking a look at some players who are being drafted too late and too early. My rankings are based off draftmaster scoring, which is PPR.
Sam Bradford – ADP says QB13, I say QB19
Is Josh McDaniels really good enough to make the league’s most conservative quarterback a borderline QB1 in just one year? I don’t see it. I certainly expect Bradford to throw down field more often than in 2010, but the Rams offense isn’t built for him to explode into a fantasy stud right away. Steven Jackson will remain heavily involved in both the run and pass game and Bradford isn’t going to completely shy away from his favorite target, slot man Danny Amendola. A now-healthy Mark Clayton, a free agent like Randy Moss, or a rookie like AJ Green will improve the pass offense, but not enough to move Bradford into QB1 territory.
Better alternatives: Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, David Garrard
Adrian Peterson – ADP says RB2, I say RB10
If you’re a Twitter regular, you’ve probably heard that I’m not as high on Peterson as the consensus. The Vikings didn’t grab Toby Gerhart in round 2 of last year’s draft just to let him rot on the bench. Gerhart saw an increased workload towards the end of the 2010 season (even when Peterson was healthy) and took away a handful of 3rd down work from the fantasy stud. Peterson’s receptions look to take a hit in 2011 and Gerhart could even see a small percent increase in carries. Because this is a PPR league, Peterson should be avoided if you own a top 5 pick.
Better alternatives: Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice
Jamaal Charles – ADP says RB3, I say RB7
Charles isn’t far off where he should be, but he’s going #1 overall often enough to warrant a mention. How quickly we forget how frustrating it was to own Charles in 2010. Head coach Todd Haley gave a larger share of the team’s carries to Thomas Jones and is now hinting that Dexter McCluster could be used as the team’s third down back, a role that would steal a chunk of receptions from Charles. Charles did manage an excellent fantasy season thanks mostly to (1) a run-heavy offense, (2) 14% of the receptions, and (3) a ridiculous 6.5 yards-per-carry mark. (1) The Chiefs will remain a run-first team, but the league’s run heaviest team rarely ends up taking that honor in back-to-back years. (2) As mentioned, McCluster could steal a chunk of those receptions. Finally, (3) Charles will certainly see some regression in that 6.5 YPC mark, probably more than 1 yard per carry.
Better alternatives: Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice
Jonathan Stewart – ADP says RB17, I say RB28
Shonn Greene. LeGarrette Blount. Cedric Benson. Michael Turner. Jonathan Stewart. They all have the same problem in PPR leagues: not enough receptions. Of the 5 players I mentioned, 4 are going earlier than they should be and the only exception is an unrestricted free agent (Benson). Stewart should end up as the Panthers lead back, but don’t overlook the workload of his handcuff and replacement on third downs, Mike Goodson. Stewart will be lucky to eclipse 20 receptions, a number that puts him well below the projected totals of the top 15 or so fantasy running backs, which will be in the fifties, sixties, and possibly seventies. Additionally, we’re not talking about an elite scoring offense here. The Panthers will be better than in 2010 when they had the worst Offensive Touchdown/Offensive Touch mark of the last three years, but they won’t improve enough to allow Stewart to easily eclipse double-figure touchdowns, a feat that would put him in the RB1 discussion.
Better alternatives: Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones
CJ Spiller – ADP says RB28, I say RB43
Spiller is currently being drafted as a good RB3, which means that he would start for many fantasy teams as a flex. Considering that he saw just 20% of the team’s carries in 2010, averaged a poor 3.8 yards-per-carry, failed to score a rushing touchdown, and is still behind Fred Jackson on the depth chart after falling behind him last season, I’m not sure I understand this one. Spiller should obviously improve in his sophomore campaign, but there’s little reason to expect him to take over most of Jackson’s 16 touches/game. Spiller is more likely to see near 10 touches/game in a Reggie Bush-like role. He’s certainly worth an upside pick late in drafts, but drafting him over starters like Joe Addai, and Marshawn Lynch is the wrong way to go.
Better alternatives: Addai, Lynch, Danny Woodhead
Austin Collie – ADP says WR20, I say WR2
I understand that many people are afraid of Collie’s concussion issues from a year ago, but he’s worth a mention anyways. Although my projections spit out Collie as the #2 fantasy WR in 2011 (a post that, ironically, injured Wes Welker held early in my 2010 projections), I agree that he is an injury risk and that should not be overlooked. Still, Peyton Manning force-fed the ball to his slot wide receiver last year, a habit that allowed Collie to put up ridiculous numbers prior to his injury. Consider that Collie was targeted at least 6 times in all 5 of the full games he played in 2010. He was targeted 9 times in one of those games, 11 in another, and 15 times in week 3. Think Manning might forget about him? Consider that he was targeted 6 times on just 9 pass routes in week 11 before leaving the game. He returned for 27 pass routes in week 15 and saw another 10 targets. His 12.6% touchdown rate over the last 2 seasons is very, very good for a slot receiver, but it’s not a number that will regress much when you consider how good this pass offense is. Don’t take Collie in round 2, but he’s certainly worth taking a shot on as your WR2.
Take him over: Brandon Lloyd, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (TB)
Wes Welker – ADP says WR16, I say WR8
In PPR leagues, receptions are quite the asset. Considering that Welker has 327 receptions over the last 3 seasons (including playoffs) and has seen over 25% of the team’s targets in that span, it should be pretty clear that he’s a fantasy star in this format. So, why is he not being treated like a WR1? I’m not exactly sure. Despite not eclipsing 100 receptions last year, Welker scored 7 times, a number that matched his total from the last 2 seasons combined. With Randy Moss gone, Brady has needed to look elsewhere for touchdowns. Deion Branch and Rob Gronkowski will handle some of that, but Welker could easily reach 100 receptions and 7-8 scores again in 2011. Assuming that happens, he’s a top 10 PPR option.
Take him over: Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Brandon Lloyd
Greg Jennings – ADP says WR5, I say WR11
Greg Jennings should not be going as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver. Although he will remain a WR1, do not overlook the return of Jermichael Finley, who will not only steal away a handful of touchdowns, but also a handful of targets. Consider that Finley was targeted 25 times during weeks 1-4 last season (he was injured for the year early in week 5). Jennings was targeted 24 times in that span before seeing 8+ targets in 10 of the team’s final 16 games. With Finley out of the way, Jennings TD rate also increased from 6.6% in 2009 to 14.4% in 2010. Again, we can still expect borderline WR1 production from Jennings, but he’s not worth a selection in round 2 of your fantasy draft as long as Finley is in the picture.
Better alternatives: Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker
Deion Branch – ADP says WR41, I say WR20
The aforementioned Wes Welker is the WR to own from the Patriots, but Branch might actually be the better value pick. Currently the 41st off the board in draftmaster leagues, Branch should be considered a back-end WR2, assuming the Patriots don’t replace him in the starting lineup. Despite not joining the team until week 5, Branch was targeted on 15% of the team’s 2010 pass attempts. With a full season of snaps, he should end up around 20% in 2011. Considering that he’s also playing in one of the league’s elite scoring offenses, the stars are aligned for a productive fantasy season. Target him late as your WR3/4.
Take him over: Santonio Holmes, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin
DeSean Jackson – ADP says WR12, I say WR24
Jackson is the definition of high risk/high reward. Although he can single-handedly win you a match one week, there’s just as good of a chance that he’ll be MIA the following week. This is especially the case in PPR formats, as Jackson rarely puts up high reception totals. In 15 games of action in 2010, Jackson caught just 49 balls. He does see near 20% of the Eagles targets each year, but a low catch rate kills his PPR production. He makes up for some of that with a yards-per-reception near 20 and a TD rate above 10%, but those categories are more rewarding in standard scoring leagues than they are in PPR. Jackson has a ton of playmaking ability, but of all the top fantasy wide receivers, he takes the biggest hit in PPR formats and should not be viewed as a WR1.
Better alternatives: Jeremy Maclin, Wes Welker, Marques Colston
Mike A Williams – ADP says WR17, I say WR25
Williams has a bright future in Tampa Bay, but he’s not a good play as your WR2 in 2011. Josh Freeman targeted Williams a whopping 27% of the time in 2010 and, if NFL historical data is any indicator, that number will drop at least slightly in 2011. Williams was Freeman’s favorite target, sure, but keep in mind that Tight End Kellen Winslow also saw 20% of the targets and is back in 2011. Additionally, fellow 2010 rookie WR Arrelious Benn was beginning to eat into Williams’ targets before going down with a season-ending injury late in the year. Assuming the Bucs spread the ball around a little bit more than Williams’ ridiculous 17.2% TD rate sees some regression, Williams will be more of a WR3 than WR2.
Better alternatives: Anquan Boldin, Deion Branch, Steve Johnson
Dez Bryant – ADP says WR13, I say WR29
The Cowboys run a relatively balanced offense that has 3 superstar receiving targets to keep happy. That being said, there is very little chance that they will end up with two top-13 wide receivers (Miles Austin, Bryant) and a top 5 fantasy tight end (Jason Witten). Witten and Austin are relatively safe picks, but Bryant, despite his tremendous upside, is too risky to select as your WR1 or 2. I have Bryant down for 19% of the team’s targets (he averaged 18%/game when healthy in 2010). Although that’s a healthy number, Austin and Witten each saw 21%+ of the 2010 targets and will see a similar number this season. Bryant is an excellent WR3 and has the potential to grow into a WR1, but he’s not worth the risk with so many other talented, less-risky names on the board.
Better alternatives: Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall
Ben Watson – ADP says TE23, I say TE12
It’s hard to believe that a tight end in an improving offense that was targeted on 22% of his team’s 2010 targets is not even viewed as a top 20 option at the position the next year. Watson should be considered a shoe-in for another 20% of the targets and his 4.4% TD rate should only be better, assuming the offense takes another step forward. Watson isn’t the flashiest name on the board, but he showed enough consistency in 2010 to warrant consideration as an elite TE2.
Take him over: Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Zach Miller
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