The MVP Debate: It’s already decided, but shouldn’t be

| 2010/12/14

While the MVP race appears to be signed, sealed and delivered to Tom Brady, the battle for our choice is well up for grabs with three weeks to play.

Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers all got first-place votes among our 10 ballot-boxers, and the difference between first place and third place is just two votes. (10 points for a first-place vote, nine for second, etc.)

And the leader is …


1. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (72 points, 4 first-place votes)

Our analysts continue to see something in Ryan that the NFL’s passer rating system doesn’t. Ryan is 12th in passer rating at 90.7, but is still likely to be atop our QB grades at the end of the week pending further review. It’s unlikely Ryan will get more than a vote or two among the 50 Associated Press writers who cast official ballots, but the Falcons’ QB deserves a lot of credit.

2. Tom Brady, New England (71 points, 2 first-place votes)

A fifth straight MVP-type game has landed Brady where most think he should have been all along. But four of his first eight games were stinkers, and it wasn’t until Randy Moss’ exit and the adjustments that followed that he started playing like an MVP. He faces two of our top 10-graded pass coverage units in his last three (Miami, Green Bay), so we’ll see if he winds up at No. 1 by season’s end.

3. Philip Rivers, San Diego (70 points, 1 first-place vote)

Clearly, the Chargers are a better team for not needing to throw the ball 50 times a game, but it sure was fun to watch Rivers single-handedly try to win games for them earlier in the season. The man simply hasn’t turned in a truly bad game since we’ve been grading (start of 2008).

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (64 points, 1 first-place vote)

It’s easy to say that the Packers fell apart without him in the lineup versus Detroit, but they were already in the process of doing so with him. He was 0 for 5 on third-down conversions with an interception and zero points when he was knocked out of the game in the first half (although, as it’s been pointed out, the INT was hardly his fault).

5. Michael Vick, Philadelphia (45 points, 1 first-place vote)

In the eight games he’s gone start to finish, the Eagles have scored 35, 28, 26, 59, 27, 26, 34 and 30 points. That’s some impressive consistency (and 33.1 PPG), and while he’s not doing it alone, it’s worth noting that they scored 20, 12, 27, 31 and 19 in the other five games (21.4 PPG).

6. Drew Brees, New Orleans (38 points, 1 first-place vote)

The Saints have strung together five straight games of 30+ points, and Brees’ PFF grades have been off the charts over the past six weeks. Like Brady, he’s getting better as the season progresses — not good news for the rest of the league.

7. Trent Cole, Philadelphia (33 points)

Cole didn’t show up on the stat sheet against Dallas, and we haven’t graded his performance yet, but the fact that Dallas’ RB duo of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice finished with 67 yards on 20 carries will likely have a lot to do with Cole’s efforts versus the run.

8. Kyle Williams, Buffalo (32 points)

Williams finally got some SportsCenter time, rumbling 11 yards on a fumble recovery against Cleveland in the first quarter. Like Cole, he also failed to really show up on the stat sheet, but for one of the few times all year he got help from the rest of his defensive teammates and celebrated a win. You go, Kyle.

9. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis (21 points)

Manning didn’t grade nearly as poorly as his interception totals would have suggested during his cold streak, and he had a nice bounce-back game versus Houston. His body of work is still impressive, and the Colts would probably be fighting for the No. 1 pick in the draft instead of the playoffs without him.

10. Julius Peppers, Chicago (19 points)

Peppers certainly showed up on the stat sheet, with a sack, two passes defensed, eight tackles and an additional tackle for loss. He’s worth every penny the Bears are paying him.

Others receiving votes: Peyton Hills (17 points), Cameron Wake (15), James Harrison (12), Jamaal Charles (9), Terrell Suggs (9), Maurice Jones-Drew (7), Tamba Hali (4), Adrian Peterson (3), Darren McFadden (3), Andre Johnson (2), Patrick Willis (2), Clay Matthews (2), Brandon Flowers (1), Troy Polamalu (1).

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Khaled Elsayed

    When you look at value I think you take Brees out of that Saints team and they’d struggle to get to .500 with that front seven. His slow start and them trailing the Falcons has meant he has got nowhere near the attention he deserves, but while Brady is picking apart teams with easy throws Brees is airing it out and playing superbly. And he’s doing it with worse protection.

    Also – can you really say Vick is the MVP? The Eagles weren’t exactly terrible with Kolb in there. You have to hold that against his value, while sky rocketing the value of Rodgers on the back of GB’s offense without him in there. I’m tempted to have him at number one.

    • http://www.profootballfocus.com Jonathan Comey

      Eagles have been 12 PPG better with Vick. Really, any of the top guys would be a good choice, I think. And Rodgers was responsible for 40 percent of their bad game.

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Khaled Elsayed

    But with a player like Rodgers he may have a bad first half, but you’d think he’d rebound enough to put at least some points up against Detroit. He’s carried that team more than any other player has carried their team imo. And while the Eagles may be better with Vick (unquestionably) the drop off from him to their back up, seems far less than any of the other top teams would have.

    Ah subjectivity :p

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Sam Monson

    This is why I hate the talk of value, because it becomes essentially the best QB with the worst backup. In which case we give the award to Peyton Manning every year (which seems to happen in the real deal anyway…).

    I’d prefer to think about what players actually mean to the team in the context of what’s actually happening, rather than in the context of what happens if they’re not there.

    Matt Ryan is making seriously tough, clutch throws to win the Falcons games. That is pretty much the definition of value.

  • harryddunn

    It’s misleading to cite Rodgers’ first half interception as proof of his struggles. He didn’t play great, but that pass itself was almost perfectly thrown and a bad, bad drop by Jennings that fell right in Spievey’s lap. He’ll surely score a positive grade for that play.

    • http://www.profootballfocus.com Ben Stockwell

      Quite correct, I graded that game today and he most certainly received a positive grade for that throw.

  • rodneyhartjr

    I have followed the argument for Brady not being the MVP for the past few weeks, and I understand the logic behind the argument: short passes are less difficult than long ones. So if Brady is given less credit for those throws, shouldn’t his receivers be given more credit? As it stands, the Patriots don’t have an offensive player in the top 5 in ANY category, and only two players in the top 10 (Tom Brady-8, Danny Woodhead-8, Rob Gronkowski-10). I am sure the argument will be that the ball is too spread out or something like that, or maybe that the offensive line is responsible for the success but keep in mind that none of them are even rated highly (Matt Light-33, Vollmer-39, Mankins-19, Connoly-37, Koppen-21).

    The reason I think there is such a heated argument for Brady as MVP is because decision-making is not factored into the ratings. (Going back to the Detroit game) I know one of the analysts said that he would consider giving Brady a negative score for his long throw to Branch for the TD because the throw was somewhat short. However, the reason that should be a very positive play is that rather than forcing the ball to one of his primary reads (what many of the quarterbacks in the top 5 would do), he is patient enough to look at the complete opposite side of the field where he finds Deion Branch running an option route deep.

    All this to say, if Brady’s decision-making isn’t to be rewarded and his ratings suffer for throwing short passes, then your ratings for the players catching the passes should be representative of their value…given the rankings I mentioned above, they clearly aren’t.

    • http://www.profootballfocus.com Sam Monson

      I think the thing we’re trying to articulate, but are doing a bad job of because we’re on the defensive side of the argument, is that the entire Patriots offense is playing pretty well, and together they are better than the sum of their parts, but everybody wants to say that it’s somehow Brady making everybody else better by proxy, which we think is a disservice to the coaching, the scheme, and the other guys all contributing on offense.

      You’re right that they have no stand-out player on offense in terms of runners, receivers, but look at them all in turn, they’re all grading well. Welker +4.4, Branch +5.0, Gronk +4.4, Hernandez +1.6, Woodhead +11.6, Morris +1.3, BJE +2.3 as a rusher.

      They’re all producing efficiently, they’re all winning their individual matchups.

      Regarding the Detroit throw, the point was that the throw was badly underthrown. Branch was close to 10 yards passed his man but had to stop, and beat the guy twice more to get the touchdown.

      Nobody here is saying that Brady is playing badly, he is climbing up our QB rankings over the season, but what people are saying is that he is being given too much credit for the play of a collective group, and that in direct comparison with some of the other QBs out there, he just isn’t asked to make the same difficulty of throws with the same regularity.

      • rodneyhartjr

        Right, I definitely get the argument. And I think that the reviewers largely do a great job. The only thing I think that can be argued is that a QB’s decision-making will always be hard to grade. Where he doesn’t throw can be just as important as where he does throw.

        And another thing I would say that Patriots fans specifically are reacting too is the overemphasis of the deep ball. Having lived through years of short passes (01-06), then years of the long ball (07-some of 10), now back to short passes. I think that we realize that on the whole, the long ball can be somewhat overrated. I mean consider the Charger’s record. I know that people have a tendency to obsess over their late season runs (which simply means that they failed at the beginning of the season…AGAIN), the reality is that they have 6 losses. Yet people really thought he was a more valuable player…even though he has 6 losses with a top 5 defense.

        Regarding the Detroit throw (based on radio interviews), the reason the throw was underthrown is because Branch ran a Go-Route rather than the drawn up 16-yard in-route. That is why on that pass you see he hesistate on the throw, and probably the reason it was under thrown. (Like I said, I am a Pats fan so I just needed to get that off my chest).

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Sam Monson

    Look at how San Diego were losing though, their special teams was disastrous in that stretch, blocked punt touchdowns left and right.

    As for the Detroit throw again – Alphonso Smith’s coverage was so poor he just essentially stood there and let Branch run straight by him. Now its fairly standard practice at all levels of football that when something like that happens whatever you’re running, you’re now just running the go – why would you run anything else, you’ve accomplished your goal of beating the guy, you keep going.

    So whether or not a 16-yard out was called, Brady’s smart enough to know what he’s throwing when he looks up and sees Branch well past Smith. I think the throw was just underthrown. It’s not a terrible throw, it was still a deep completion, he got it to Branch, but it caused him to stop and have to do more work after the catch to score the TD. You’d want Brady to hit him in stride or at least not slow him down as much.

    Again though, we’re not saying that the deep ball needs to be there – the Patriots are getting it done with the short passes, just making the point that they’re less difficult throws than deeper passes into tighter coverage, which is what some other passers are making this season on a regular basis. By and large the point we’re making is that Brady is making easier throws. It’s working, and we’re not suggesting they change, just that people understand his job is essentially ‘easier’ when they’re looking at what people are achieving.

    We’re nitpicking, Brady is having an excellent season, but we’re talking about MVP, which is best/move valuable player in the entire league.

    • rodneyhartjr

      I know that I am nitpicking too, I love this site and the ratings it provides. I just think that you cannot argue with the fact that decision-making is an impossible thing to rate on the QB scale, and if there was a way to rate decision-making I think that Brady would be at the top of the list. When a QB is always making “easy throws” week after week, making top defenses look pathetic, you have to say that there is something to the offense and QB running the offense. Let’s revisit the Detroit throw for example (I know, I am nitpicking):

      Objectively, I would agree that as a throw it was an under thrown ball to a wide open receiver. However, with the information that I now have (being a Patriots fan and listening to the radio interviews in the weeks following the game), the reason Smith let him walk by him is that in that situation QBs rarely come back to their fourth option on the opposite side of the field. To give some credit to Branch too, most receivers don’t run the route as if they have any opportunity to get the ball, which is why he made the coverage look so bad. So in a sense you are correct; “The System/Coaching” gets credit for offensive personnel always willing to play out a play (meaning Brady doesn’t get credit for having Branch WANT to run the route regardless if he is an afterthought option on the play). However, the fact that he is running the route and is wide open is an indication that Brady has proven himself as a quarterback that will “find the open guy.”

      As a result, you have Brady making a throw you consider poor because the receiver is wide open and he slightly underthrows it. However, part of the reason Smith’s coverage seems so poor is credit to Brady and the offensive system in the first place. So though he could have squeezed a throw into coverage for a first down which he has proven capable (like, say, the Gronkowski touchdown pass against the Steelers) and gotten a positive rating, he ends up getting a negative rating for hitting Branch on an ad-hoc route down the field for a touchdown. With all of the information available, I think that Brady has to be given a positive rating for know all of his options and having the ability to make decisive reads on each of them.

      Now, the only reason I can make this judgement is because I now have information available that is not generally available when the grading process happens. Who knows, maybe Phillip Rivers is often hitting his 3rd and 4th option too? However, when a quarterback is making his job look easy, even against top defenses, you have to assume that the quarterback responsible for that offense is the most valuable player in the league.

      Interesting side note, Brady’s rating this year to date is 5 points lower than it was last year to date. The difference? Last year the offense was predicated on deep throwing offense. However, I am sure if you ask any team in the league right now which offense they would rather play, it’s a pretty easy question.

      • http://www.profootballfocus.com Sam Monson

        I’ve just gone back to look at that play again in more detail and I’ve just got a few points to make.

        * You can see that like you say, it is probably his 4th read, but the first 2 are a high-low and can be read together in essence, the 3rd is a dump off to Woodhead taking him in the direction of reading Branch. He is coming across the field to make the read, but he has time to do it in the pocket, and he’s not scanning four distinct areas of the field to do it. Again, nitpicking, but it’s a read you’d expect a top QB to progress to. Maybe you’d expect them to hit Woodhead, because that looked like being coming open, but like I say, that read took him towards Branch anyway, and at that point Branch has his arm in the air waving he is so open.

        * There’s just no excuse for the coverage of Alphonso Smith on the play. Even if he’s on the backside of the play, Branch comes off the line full speed and Smith just never moves. You can’t expect to just not cover somebody because you’re on the backside and potentially the fourth read. If the QB gets no pressure in the pocket, he’ll find that fourth read. Schwartz on the sideline can be seen mouthing after the play ‘What the f**k happened??’

        * Bottom line is Brady gets time in the pocket, works through his reads, finds a guy WIDE OPEN, and stops his progress with the pass, meaning he has to beat the CB twice more to get the TD. I think you expect the QB to read his way to the open guy in that situation, but you also have to expect him to put the ball on Branch. Protection and Branch deserve more credit on that play than Brady.

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Jonathan Comey

    Belichick on Brady:

    Q: Looking at Tom Brady’s performance since the Cleveland game, what stands out to you?

    BB: Well, I think the main thing for us is just our team performance. Everybody, all the players on the team, have a job to do. It’s not always perfect. Sometimes it’s better than others. Sometimes plays are better than others, but the bottom line is just the whole unit working efficiently. [The] quarterback is a big part of that, but he can’t do it without everybody else and they can’t do it without him and so forth. We all know that. I think Tom continues to work hard on his preparation. Challenges change every week. No two weeks are the same. Everybody doing their job makes his job better and him being prepared and doing a good job in his keys and reads enables us to perform proficiently on offense, whatever the situation is, whether it’s first down, second down, third down, goal line [or] whatever it happens to be. I think the big thing for us is just to continue working hard as a unit, work on our executions, make sure that we all understand what our opponents are doing and what our game plan is and how those fit together and what adjustments we make. If we can all do that, collectively, through all 11 players, seeing things the same way and doing it well as a unit, then we’ll probably be pretty efficient offensively. If we don’t, even though there might be a few good plays by individuals on any given play, the overall execution of the offense won’t be there unless it’s there on a consistent basis with the entire unit. Put Tom in there with the other guys; I feel the same way about all of them.

    • rodneyhartjr

      I think that this is exactly what I was articulating. The thing about the QB position in a “system” that works this way is that their decision-making has to be better than any other quarterback, and the fact that Brady makes it seem easy proves that his decision-making-especially in the last few weeks-has been flawless. BUT the thing about decision-making is that it is impossible to rate this.

      This is why I don’t dispute any of Brady’s ratings per se. It doesn’t bother me that Tom Brady is the 8th ranked quarterback. But what that rating is not capturing-what it cannot capture-is something like decision-making. And for that I think that Brady IS the most valuable quarterback…even if he isn’t the highest rated quarterback.

  • rw1251

    While we are quoting Belichick, here’s the coach on the play J Comey said he’d give Brady 0 credit for:

    “If we run that play 20 times, Branch hasn’t gotten the ball twice,” Belichick said. “To look at front side, see the pattern covered, come back to Branch, see his route adjustment on the play, and make a really good throw–you don’t really draw them up like that….He’s made a bunch of plays like that for us this year. Most quarterbacks, if the pattern is open, they should be able to throw it in there and hit it. It’s the ones who can make something out of nothing — making a great read, a great throw, a great decision when the play breaks down, if you make a mistake in protection, or the defense makes a mistake.”

    Unfortunately, its the kind of thing an untrained scout cannot see from TV tape.

    • rodneyhartjr

      Well I am not in favor of knocking the ratings provided here, cause I think they are really good. I don’t think that it is a question of untrained scout vs. trained scout, it’s just about whether you know what the play is to begin with. I don’t think professional scouts of other teams could do much better than the PFF scouts at grading a quarterback’s decision-making.

      But when a team is 11-2 (with one of the worst ranked defenses) and are scoring the most points on a team predicated on the pass and the quarterback is making the throws he is making “look easy”, you have to consider there may be a difference between the highest rated quarterback and the most VALUABLE quarterback finding the “easy throws” predicated on his incredible decision making.

  • http://www.profootballfocus.com Khaled Elsayed

    A very well put response. As helpful as our gradings are, they can’t be taken as complete gospel as there always going to be limitations (in the same that scouting itself has limitations as is rightly pointing out, whether watching on television or not, only the teams really know what is going on beforehand – doesn’t stop teams scouting though does it).

    It’s a real interesting one. I have Brady lower in my offensive player of the year rankings than I had him in my MVP ballot. So I’d agree on that point that a guy could be the 8th ranked quarterback and still be the MVP. I wouldn’t have him as my MVP with Brees playing as well as he is now with a defense that is in my mind worse and making some incredible throws, but then that’s the subjectivity of deciding who the most valuable player is.

    • rodneyhartjr

      I think we are on the same page. I am okay with Brady not being the highest rated quarterback. What you guys are doing is rating plays on the objective quality of play, which is what scouts should be doing. It is the reason Jay Cutler gets drafted in the first round of the draft despite being on a losing Vanderbilt team his entire college career. It is what I want you guys to rate, because it is in that you discover a player like Kyle Williams who I now watch intensely.

      As you stated, though, the highest rated quarterback is not necessarily the most valuable quarterback. …just in my opinion Brady is the MVP. If I had to make the case against Brees it would be the number of interceptions, but then again I haven’t watched a whole Saints game which has a tendency to change my opinion of some interceptions (i.e. tipped passes, etc). And you are probably correct in saying the Pats defense is better, I think that they are now #1 in turnovers. But then again, the Patriots #1 turnover differential is credit to the lack of turnovers by the Brady and the Patriots offense (Green-Ellis has never fumbled in his career…not even college!). So I think the edge still has to be given to Brady.

      Full disclosure: I am a Patriots fan (ha ha, bet you couldn’t guess)

    • rw1251

      Thats not accurate, if I were allowed to post external links I would show you a guy on patriotsplanet (look him up, “AllWorldTE”) breaking down tape, identifying each play, each coverage, and the QBs reads. Someone who knows the game – has coached or played – can do that. The fact that the analysts here are still that mystified by the game suggests their breakdowns cannot be taken very literally.

      • rodneyhartjr

        I don’t know if I agree with that completely. I have played football for 10+ years, and continue to play now on a semi-pro team. I can say that that with or without coaches tape (which I am guessing patriotsplanet doesn’t have unless he has an “in” with Belichick), it would be impossible to know on the face of it that Branch was supposed to run a 16-yard in cut but decided to run a Go route.

        However, what PFF does is rate each play for what it is. Like a scout would. If you are a football junkie like me, that information is valuable to you because stats don’t really say all there is to say about a player. Rather than trying to make subjective calls on what the play may have been, they grade everybody on how they performed in the play. This is enough to determine players making good plays. Like I said above, Jay Cutler played on a losing team in college his entire career but scouts identified him as a player with a lot of skill based on the same grading used here.

        BUT, when determining the MVP I think that it is important to veer from the strict ratings and look at them in context. In context, I think that Brady could indeed rate as the 8th best quarterback but indeed be the MVP.

        • rodneyhartjr

          (I am on a roll now)

          Rather than focus on Jay Cutler to continue making my point, let me use Ellis Hobbs because it seems that, like me, you (rw1251) are a Patriots fan.

          From 2006-2008, I can’t think of a player who took more of a beating on Boston sports radio than Ellis Hobbs. It always baffled me because watching the games as closely as I do, Hobbs was a player I identified as one of our better defenders (of course until 2007 we had Asante Samuel who I agree is better). Much to my surprise, when I looked for his rating on PFF in 2008, or our 3rd best defensive player behind the defensive line. It was this that sold me on PFF’s ability to rate players accurately.

        • rw1251

          True, he wouldn’t know regarding that specific play, even with coaches tape.

          But the PFF makes no attempt at grasping coverages, routes and QB reads what-so-ever. Which is such a huge aspect of the game. They also don’t grade technique. So what are they grading? The play’s result…its essentially a statistic.

          As for Hobbs, I agree he was hugely overly-criticized, essentially doing exactly what was asked of him, playing soft cover 3 that we ran quite a lot while he was here – and playing through a litany of injuries, without complaint. But he was also traded for a couple late rounders by Belichick, so suffice it to say, the team’s internal scouting viewed him as a replaceable part.

          In general, I love the idea of what PFF is doing here – and enjoyed their site for several years when it was free. But they need to pay actual scouts to review these games and obtain coaches copy if they want to charge for their services. Especially if they treat their inexact greats as so precise. It’s a great idea gone bad, at the moment.

          • http://www.profootballfocus.com Sam Monson

            Again – You keep making declarative statements about what we do and do not do and what we are and are not qualified to do without having any idea about either.

            We DO in fact grasp coverages – we need to do that in order to assign primary coverage on a pass play, to determine who had responsibility for coverage. We know that it will never be 100% accurate without having access to everybody’s team meetings (for example when we talked to Eric Weddle about a specific play, we had the coverage 100% right, but San Diego’s system has a specific responsibility for one of the men in Cover-4 that without knowing, you would have no way of determining, from TV or coaches tape). But we also know it’s more than good enough for what we are trying to accomplish, and have been told as much by various NFL sources.

            If you want to know exactly what we do or don’t look at – ask. We’re only too happy to explain stuff in detail to people asking. Assuming we do or don’t, or can or can’t do something does nobody any good.

  • rw1251

    Sorry that should say “inexact grades” above ^^^

    • rodneyhartjr

      What I think is valuable about their grading is that they are able to give you a good view of who is actually playing well on other teams, beyond what the national media will give you. Kyle Williams of the Buffalo Bills, for example. I am paying for the services of the site now, because I feel like it gives me a football junkies insight into other teams that I don’t watch like I watch the Patriots. For instance, watching the Patriots this year I have noticed Cunningham making good plays that don’t show up on the stat sheet in his limited snaps (at first), and surprisingly PFF was seeing the same thing. Or like how Seymour was dominant but never had a sack, and PFF had him as one of the highest rated defensive players. These are the things I think they are looking beyond the statistics of the play. It is this that won me over and why I am happy to pay for the services of the site.

      And as far as grading technique, that might be important going into the NFL, but seeing as they are already in the pros technique analysis seems unimportant to me. If you are starting in the NFL–even if you have an unorthodox technique–I think that it is beyond the point of return for their techniques. I remember one of the biggest questions/knocks on Phillip Rivers coming out of NC State was his throwing motion. Given his success in the NFL (that was painful to say), I think it is too late to grade him on how he makes his throws…even though he never changed that weird throwing motion.

      As far as trading Hobbs for late rounders, that’s true. But when has Belichick ever thought he couldn’t replace a player: Seymour, Asante, Milloy (kinda weak considering he already had Harrison), etc. But did it surprise you to see Hobbs playing significant snaps with the Eagles (ironically enough next to Asante Samuel) when healthy?

  • Rai

    You’re doing a great job guys, love these articles that you do.

«
»