Value Town is a weekly column that goes game by game to dig deeper and identify big value plays and some not-so-obvious starts.

Big Value

These players are must-starts in all formats.

St. Louis @ Arizona: Steven Jackson – This week marks the first time all season that I’ve written about Jackson (-3.3). As his PFF rating shows, he has not exactly had a standout season. But all things considered, it hasn’t been a disastrous season either. He’s posted six games of 100 total yards or more and is averaging 23.7 touches per game. Despite this productivity, Jackson has frustrated fantasy owners in scoring just 3 TDs through 11 games and averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season.

All is not lost for Jackson owners, however, as this week he faces the Cardinals and their sorry run defense (-41.4). No team in the league yields more fantasy points to opposing RBs than Arizona. They have given up 2 TDs to opposing RBs in each of the last 5 games, and only the Broncos have given up more TDs to the position this season. Last week, I recommended that you start Frank Gore against Arizona. My advice looked golden until his unfortunate hip injury, but an older and slower Brian Westbrook still managed to rack up 136 yards and a score against them. Jackson has a little bit more tread left on his tires than Westbrook, so expect to have a big day in Arizona. He makes a rock solid RB1 start

Jacksonville @ Tennessee: Marcedes Lewis – Here’s a surprising stat from PFF staff writer, Anshu Khanna: In 2009 there were nine TEs who averaged 6.65 fantasy points per game or more. This season, there are just two – Antonio Gates and Lewis (+7.4). If you were one of the lucky owners who grabbed him off waivers early in the season, then you’ve enjoyed and reaped the benefits of his TD/Reception ratio of 21.1% this season. Though he ranks just 10 among TEs in yards, his 8 TDs are second at the position to only Gates.

In their last 4 games, Tennessee has given up 3 TDs and an average of 95 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. A large part of their problems against TEs is due to the play of Will Witherspoon, who grades out as one of the ten worst OLBs in coverage (-4.5). Witherspoon has been burnt for 401 yards and 4 TDs on the season, and opposing QBs have posted a 113.7 rating when throwing in to his coverage. Look for Jacksonville to find ways to get Lewis matched up in Witherspoon’s coverage and to exploit this glaring weakness in a Tennessee defense that grades out fairly strongly overall (+66.6). Lewis is a top TE option this week.

Denver @ Kansas City: Jamaal Charles – I couldn’t resist the temptation to write about Charles (+19.0) one more time this season. Todd Haley finally seems to have warmed up to Charles, who is one of just three RBs in the league with over 1000 rushing yards. Charles averages a disgusting 6.3 yards per carry and 11.2 yards per reception. Though he has just 4 TDs on the season, Charles has scored twice in the last three weeks. And if we flash back to last season when the Chiefs met the Broncos in Week 17, Charles went ballistic for 262 total yards on 26 touches and 2 scores. Can history repeat itself?

Though the Broncos grade out fairly strongly against the run (+41.9), they currently yield the third most rushing yards per game at 141.6. They have also given up a league-high 17 total TDs to opposing RBs. As a result, only Arizona currently gives up more fantasy points to RBs than any other team in the NFL. While Denver has given up three rushing scores in the last four games, they are a team that gave up five rushing TDs (yes five) in one game to Oakland back in Week 7. I don’t think Todd Haley goes completely away from his Thomas Jones love, but I do expect Charles to get the majority of the touches. With his freakish skills and ticking time bomb big-play ability, he is my top RB option this week.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay: Mike Williams – The Buccaneers best receiving option is coming off an ugly 2 reception performance where he tallied just 20 yards against the Ravens. I wouldn’t read too much into this game, however, and expect him to return to the form he exhibited in the month prior to last week. In that span of 4 games, Williams (+0.7) averaged 79 yards receiving per game and caught 3 TDs.

Currently, only the Seahawks and Cowboys give up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Falcons. In their last 6 games, the Falcons have yielded 12 TDs passes and an average of 218 yards per game to opposing wide outs. At the same time, they’ve given up just 3 total scores to RBs all season. Only the Steelers and Jets have given up less fantasy points to RBs. The moral of the story is to avoid starting LaGarrette Blount unless you absolutely have to. Beyond that, expect a lot of throwing from Josh Freeman against this Atlanta defense that grades out at -10.5 in coverage. I expect Williams to likely see more than his season average of 7.5 targets per game. Though you will get the occasional dropped pass from him (he has 6 on the season), I like Williams to have a nice day and recommend him as a solid WR2 play.

Buffalo @ Minnesota: Visanthe Shiancoe – In a season where many of the top options have either been injury plagued or altogether placed on injured reserved, the TE spot has been a week-to-week roller coaster ride for fantasy owners. Aside from the aforementioned Lewis, few TEs have produced consistent fantasy numbers, leaving owners to cross their fingers and ride their existing TE or scramble to find a juicy matchup. Though I doubt Shiancoe is in your free agency pool, this looks to be one of those nice matchups for a player who has been far from productive this season. Shiancoe has just two scores on the season, and only one game where he topped 80 receiving yards. But for owners hoping for one more trick from this pony, opportunity knocks.

Through their first eight games this season, the Bills were on pace to give up 16 TDs to opposing TEs. Though they have limited opposing TEs to just 79 yards and no scores over the last two weeks, they have not exactly faced top-tier competition in Jermaine Gresham and Heath Miller. Shiancoe is a much more athletic player than Miller and has a huge edge in experience over Gresham. Averaging 5.5 targets per game, Shiancoe will get his chances this weekend. Because of the matchup, I like him as a low-end TE1 start this week.

Carolina @ Seattle: Jonathan Stewart – Though I was correct in my Week 12 prediction that Mike Goodson would outscore Stewart, I was impressed with what I saw out of Stewart. He ripped off 98 yards on just 12 carries for a Jamaal Charles-like 8.2 yards per carry average. Goodson, on the other hand, averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in his 14 rushing attempts. However, the Panthers did rely heavily on Goodson in the passing game, where he had 8 catches for 81 yards. Though the touches will likely hover around a 50/50 split between the two, I expect Carolina to go after the Seahawks on the ground making Stewart a bigger value play.

After playing fairly well against the run over the first month of the season, Seattle has steadily devolved into one of the worst run defenses in the league. Over their first four games they graded out at +37.5 against the run and yielded just 68 rushing yards per game. In the seven games since then, the Seahawks have a -1.0 PFF rating against the run, yield an average of 133.3 rushing yards per game, and have given up 8 rushing scores. Their worst performances in this stretch have come in the last two games, where they grade out at -25.9 against the run. Pee-yew. So both Goodson and Stewart are in line for good fantasy days here, but I give the edge to Stewart. Get him in your lineup as a flex/low-end RB2 play.

New York Jets @ New England: Santonio Holmes – The Patriots have been rather friendly to opposing receivers this season. They currently grade out as the sixth worst team in pass coverage (-19.8). New England gives up a league-high average of 288.5 passing yards per game and are one of just seven teams to yield 21 or more TD passes this season. Over the last three games, opposing WRs have straight up torched the Patriots, scoring seven times and averaging 221 receiving yards per game. I expect more of the same this week from the Jets receivers, and like Holmes to have the biggest day of the bunch.

Since returning from suspension in Week 5, Holmes (+3.8) has established himself as the Jets’ top WR option. Though he’s played 4 less games than Braylon Edwards (-5.0), he trails Edwards by just 3 receptions for the team lead. Mark Sanchez currently looks Holmes’ way an average of 7.9 times per game, while Edwards averages just 5.9 targets per game. Though both receivers are good plays this week, Holmes has the bigger upside. I like him as a solid WR1 option.

Sneaky Value

These players are risky but their matchup offers potential upside.

Cleveland @ Miami: Ronnie Brown – This seems to be my week of big name players who haven’t done much this season, but I think Brown (+3.5) deserves some strong consideration this week from owners who have managed to hold on to him through this trying season. What really interests me about Brown is the fact that he received a season-high, 27 touches last week against the Raiders. Yes, it was Ricky Williams and found the end zone in the game and out rushed Brown by 10 yards, but the box score is deceiving. Williams’ TD came on a garbage time 45-yard run. Take that carry away and Williams averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather have Brown.

This is an extremely sneaky play because Cleveland has been strong against the run all season (+46.4). They are currently tied for the league-low having yielded just 4 rushing TDs. However, they look to be trending downward against the run. After having not posted a negative rating against the run as a team in their first eight games, the Browns graded out at -4.9 in Week 10 against the Jets and -10.8 in Week 11 against the Jaguars. Though their run defense did grade out positively last week against the Panthers, the +0.8 was their third lowest rating of the season. Over these 3 games, the Browns give up an average of 232 total yards to opposing teams RBs, which is up from 118.4 total yards over their first 8 games. Look for Miami to feed both Williams and Brown in this one, but I expect Brown to have the bigger day. If you’re facing matchup problems elsewhere, he makes an ultra sneaky flex play with RB2 upside.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore: Derrick Mason – Mason (+2.0) has been the definition of value this season. Despite consistently being ranked much lower than teammate Anquan Boldin (+2.7) by fantasy pundits and owners alike, Mason has posted very similar stats. Mason currently sits with just six less receptions and 76 less yards than Boldin on the season. While Boldin has scored six times to just four for Mason, three of his TDs came in the same game back in Week 3 against Cleveland. Since then, Boldin has caught 31 balls for 365 yards and three scores. Over that same span, Mason has 38 catches for 494 yards and three scores (all of them coming in the last 4 games). Impressed? I know I am.

I’ll admit that this isn’t the juiciest matchup out there, but it has more potential that first glance may lead you to believe. Mason caught 6 balls for 80 yards against the Steelers back in Week 4. Pittsburgh currently sits in the bottom third of the league in opponent’s passing yards per game and have given up 8 passing TDs in the last 5 games. More importantly, the Steelers currently yield the second least total yards to opposing RBs, so the Ravens are going to have to pass in order to move the ball. Mason offers good bang for your buck in this one, and makes an interesting flex play.

Washington @ New York Giants: Kevin Boss – Here’s another example of the TE conundrum that I mentioned earlier. After being a popular late-round value pick in preseason drafts, Boss failed to pan out for fantasy owners. He subsequently found free agency in many leagues, and may still be out there in your league. However, he’s scored in 3 of the last four weeks. In this span where Giants WRs have dropped like flies, Boss has stepped up for his two biggest effort of the season. In Week 10 against Dallas he tallied 81 yards and a score, and followed this up last week with 74 yards and a score. With the Giants receiving corps still banged up, Boss will continue to be involved in the passing game.

The Redskins currently grade out as the fifth lowest rated defense in pass coverage (-21.5) and give the fourth most passing yards per game. Ordinarily, in this type of matchup I would focus my attention on a Giants’ WR. But with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks both out, Boss becomes the Giants’ second best receiving threat behind Mario Manningham. If you’re one of the many owners playing TE roulette, go out and grab Boss if he’s still available in your league.

Chicago @ Detroit: Earl Bennett – Here’s one for owners in very deep leagues who are looking for a one-week spot start with upside. Bennett (+1.8) has not seen as many snaps this season as teammates Johnny Knox (+5.0) and Devin Hester (-6.4), but he has been arguably more effective than either of them. Bennett has caught 72.7% of his targets compared to just 58.0% for Knox and 58.5% for Hester. Bennett also now leads the team in TD receptions with three, thanks to his 2 TD game last week against the Eagles.

This year, Thanksgiving was a day to give thanks, to eat great food with family and friends, and for Detroit to have both their CBs grade out below -4.0 in coverage. Anyone who watched the game would not be shocked to hear that Alphonso Smith graded out at -4.1 in coverage, but you may be surprised that Chris Houston actually posted a lower rating of -4.5 for his coverage against the Patriots. They were that bad. As matter of fact, in Detroit’s last 2 games, opposing WRs have scored 7 TDs. I like Chicago to attack the Lions poor coverage (-30.5) by coming out throwing. Though Knox is the best fantasy option among the Bears WRs, the matchup warrants a look at Bennett. I like him as a flex/WR3 in super deep leagues.

Dallas @ Indianapolis: Tashard Choice – Choice has been almost completely nonexistent this season, seeing just 11% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps through the first 11 weeks. On the season, Choice has just 14 carries for 38 yards, and even voiced his frustrations with his lack of playing time back in the end of October. Last week against the Saints, he put up a Jerome Bettis-like stat line of one carry for one yard and one score. But Marion Barber is out of the lineup, so Choice will see an increased role in the Dallas offense. With the Colts on the schedule, this couldn’t have come at a better time for Chioce.

Indianapolis grades out as the lowest rated defense against the run (-45.5). Their general ineptitude against opposing rushers has resulted in a league-high 4.9 yards per carry average. In the last two weeks, they have given up 96 yards and a score to BenJarvus Green-Ellis and 103 yards and a score to Mike Tolbert. Though I expect that Felix Jones will see a bulk of the touches for the Cowboys, Choice will get his chances. This guy certainly has the ability to make plays, and now has the opportunity to get on the field. Though there is some risk to this play, I like him as a sneaky flex start.

San Francisco @ Green Bay: Donald Driver – This one is certainly a bit of a gut call, but I have to admit that Driver (-4.4) has looked decent over the last two weeks since returning a quad injury. In that span, Driver has totaled more total offensive snaps and passing play snaps than either Jordy Nelson (-0.6) or James Jones (-2.7). Though Jones was targeted more often and Nelson received as many targets as Driver in the last two games, I like the fact that Driver is on the field more often than the other two Packers receivers. With the attention that Greg Jennings (+4.3) draws, I expect Driver to play heavily into the Green Bay offensive game plan this weekend.

The 49ers currently sit as a middle of the pack pass defense and grade out at -4.0 in pass coverage. At the same time, they play the run very well (+72.7) and grade out as the league’s strongest pass rush (+61.7). With this heat in his face, Aaron Rodgers will have to get the ball out of his hand quickly, which favors shorter routes from his receivers. Driver will likely line up against CB Shawntae Spencer (-5.2) most of the day. Two weeks ago against Tampa Bay, Spencer gave up six short receptions, one of which was a TD reception by Mike Williams. Look for the Packers to employ a similar strategy against the 49ers, and for Driver to see plenty of targets. I predict fantasy relevance for Driver for the first time since Week 4, and like him as an under the radar flex/WR3 play in deep leagues.

New Orleans @ Cincinnati: Chris Ivory – In the muddled Saints backfield, it’s nearly impossible to predict who will receive the bulk of touches. Last week, Julius Jones lead New Orleans RBs with 13 after having just six the previous week. Ivory had only seven last week despite racking up 23 in Week 11. Honestly, I’m not even going to try to predict what Sean Payton is going to do next with his backfield. However, two things have become clear over the last few weeks – Ladell Betts is now irrelevant and Ivory is emerging as a deep red zone weapon for the Saints. His three scores in the last two weeks have come from one, three, and six yards.

Cincinnati has been relatively friendly to opposing RBs this season, as they give up an average of 108.5 rushing yards and slightly less than one TD per game to the position. The Bengals run defense grades out slightly below average (+22.9), but they are near the bottom of the league with an average of 4.5 yards per carry against. As always with the Saints, you can expect a heavy dose of Drew Brees spreading the ball around. Your guess is as good as mine as to which RB receives the most carries, but it will be Ivory when they get close. I like him as a slightly risky flex play.

Oakland @ San Diego: Legedu Naanee – The hype that was Vincent Jackson came to an anticlimactic end last week after just two plays. Malcom Floyd also saw just 13 snaps against the Colts and is questionable for this weekend. That really leaves Naanee as the Chargers top WR option. Naanee returned to the lineup last week for the first time since Week 5 and caught three balls for 38 yards. No, these are not mind-bending numbers, but this was a game where the Chargers did not have to throw to win thanks to two defensive scores and a big day from Mike Tolbert.

With Nnamdi Asomughahe banged up for most of the season, the Raiders have struggled slightly against the pass. They currently grade out at -10.3 in pass coverage and have yielded 21 passing TDs. In their last 3 games, Oakland has given up 5 scores and an average of 189.3 yards per game their opponent’s WRs. With news that Mike Tolbert missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and Ryan Mathews still banged up, I expect that San Diego will rely more heavily on the pass in this one. With Naanee as their best WR option, he should see plenty of targets. I like him as a flex play with WR2 upside.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe. Good luck this weekend, and as we move forward into the fantasy playoffs!

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