Value Town is a weekly column that goes game by game to dig deeper and identify big value plays and some not-so-obvious starts.

Big Value

These players are must-starts in all formats.

San Francisco @ Arizona: Frank Gore – It’s no secret that the 49ers like to feed the ball to Gore (+2.9). He’s their best offensive weapon and accordingly averages 24.4 touches per game. Gore has been fairly consistent for fantasy owners in the process. He’s topped 100 total yards in seven of ten games this season, but has only found the end zone three times. His problems here are symptomatic of larger deficiencies for the 49ers, as they are currently tied for the third least TDs scored with just 18 on the season.

I expect San Francisco will have no problem scoring in this one, however. They face an Arizona defense that currently grades out as the second worst overall defense (-57.4). They’re just plain bad across the board, ranking at or near the bottom of the league in pass rush (-8.6), pass coverage (-10.5), and run defense (-21.5). They currently yield 135.1 rushing yards per game, and have given up two TDs to opposing RBs in each of their last 4 games. Gore owners will see a lot of their stud player in this game, as teams currently average 30.8 carries per game against the Cardinals. Look for him early and often on Monday night. Gore is a top-end RB1 option this week. Start him with confidence.

Jacksonville @ New York Giants: Mario Manningham – With Hakeem Nicks (+8.9) out and it looking very likely that Steve Smith (+3.6) will not return this weekend, Manningham (+3.5) has become Eli Manning’s top WR option. Though he hasn’t seen as many targets as his two injured teammates, Manningham has been very effective for the Giants this season. He’s caught 38 of 50 targets for a 76% catch percentage, which is higher than both Nicks and Smith. He also currently leads the team with averages of 13.2 yards per reception and 4.2 yards after catch per reception. Fantasy owners will also like the four TDs he’s scored, which is one more than Smith on the season.

Though they’re not as bad as Houston in coverage (-60.2), Jacksonville is not too far behind at -41.3. The Jaguars are currently one of just seven teams in the league to have given up 20 or more TD passes, and three of these teams have already played their 11th game of the season (Detroit, New England, and Dallas). Opposing WRs have scored a TD against Jacksonville in all but two games this season. The Jaguars have given up 200 or more yards to opposing team’s WRs in six games this season, and are one of just two teams to have yielded more than ten passing plays of 40 or more yards on the season. I expect Manning will challenge the Jacksonville secondary in this game, and believe that Manningham will be the biggest beneficiary. He makes a rock solid WR2 with some very nice upside.

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo: Rashard Mendenhall – Mendenhall (+0.4) is having a bit of an up and down season. He’s graded out over +1.0 in three games, but has also posted three games below -1.0. That’s not good in the consistency department, and can be very frustrating for fantasy owners. The good news is that he’s averaging 22 touches and 90.9 total yards per game. He’s also scored 8 TDs on the season and has lost just one fumble. Another impressive stat on Mendenhall is that he’s caused 33 missed tackles on the season. That ranks him third among RBs, behind on Adrian Peterson and Ahmad Bradshaw.

The Bills currently grade out with the seventh lowest rating against the run (+5.9). No team in the NFL gives up more rushing yards per game than the 163.5 the Bills currently yield. Opposing teams average 35.1 rushing attempts per game against the Bills, which also leads the league. Buffalo has given up a rushing TD in all but two games this season, and just got lit up by the chronically underachieving Cedric Benson for 146 total yards and a score. Though Kyle Williams has been a complete rock star against the run (+22.1) for the Bills, opposing teams are finding success running to the left side of center at Marcus Stroud. Look for Mike Tomlin to exploit this weakness and pound Mendenhall all game. He should have a big day and makes a huge value RB1 play this week.

Kansas City @ Seattle: Dwayne Bowe – What can I say? This guy is on complete fire. After getting off to an extremely slow start where he has just 152 receiving yards and 1 TD over his first four games, Bowe (+7.7) has scored 10 TDs in his last six games. During this span, he averages 93.8 receiving yards and 6 catches per game. Bowe has been kind to fantasy owners in the process, posting double-digit fantasy points in five of those games.

Seattle has been very friendly to opposing receivers this season. They currently grade out as the fourth worst team in coverage (-19.3) and yield the second most passing yards per game. No team in the league gives up more yards per catch than the 13.6 that the Seahawks currently yield. They have given up 11 passing TDs in their last 4 games, including 4 last week to New Orleans. Bowe will likely see CB Marcus Trufant (-1.8) most of the day. Trufant currently grades out at -3.9 in coverage and is one of just 8 CBs to have given up over 600 receiving yards this season. I expect another big day for Bowe and love him as a top-end WR1 start.

San Diego @ Indianapolis: Mike Tolbert – Much to the chagrin of Ryan Mathews owners, Tolbert has been the RB of choice in San Diego this season. Through 10 games, Tolbert has scored 8 TDs and is coming off a 26 touch, 125 total yard performance against the Broncos. With it looking almost definite that Mathews will again not play, I expect another solid game for Tolbert this week against the Colts.

Indianapolis grades out as the league’s worst run defense (-37.6) and currently yield 5.0 yards per carry, which is the second highest average behind only the Redskins. Opposing teams have topped 100 yards rushing against the Colts in all but two games this season. Though Indianapolis has a solid pass rush (+12.3), their defensive line has been terrible against the run. Both Robert Mathis (-2.8) and Dwight Freeney (-3.3) grade out negatively against the run, but neither has been as bad as Daniel Muir (-11.0). Muir has posted a PFF rating of -1.0 or lower against the run in nine of ten games this season. Look for San Diego to take it to Muir when he’s in the game. I expect a lot of touches for Tolbert and like him as a solid RB2 start.

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore: Joe Flacco – This may not look like the best matchup on paper, but Flacco (+22.8) has been incredibly consistent over the last 8 games. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in each of those games, and failed to throw a TD pass in just once during that span. However, In that game versus the Broncos back in Week 5 he did manage to run for a TD. Though he’s not very likely to post a monster game, Flacco also is extremely unlikely to give you a stinker. Slow and steady can win you your fantasy league.

The thing I like most about this matchup for Flacco is that he faces a Tampa Bay pass rush that has generated just 14 sacks on the season. This inability to get to the QB will give Flacco plenty of time in his drop backs to go through his progessions and locate the open receiver. While the Buccaneers have not given up a TD pass in their last 2 games, I’m not reading too much into it because they faced two inexperienced QBs in Jimmy Clausen and Troy Smith. This week, they’ll have their hands full with Flacco and a Raven’s offense that knows how to move the ball. I expect another solid game out of Flacco and like him as a low-end QB1 this week.

St. Louis @ Denver: Knowshon Moreno – Though he grades out negatively for the season (-2.3), Moreno has posted a +3.9 PFF rating in his last 4 games. Over that span he’s averaging 106.3 total yards per game and has scored 4 TDs. More importantly, since he returned from a hamstring injury in Week 7, Moreno has received almost all the Broncos carries. The only other Denver RB to get a carry in that time is Lance Ball, and he’s had just three.

St. Louis currently grades out slightly below average against the run (+20.7). Though they have given up just 5 total TDs to opposing RBs on the season, the Rams have given up a rushing TD in each of the last two weeks. In addition to his score last week, Michael Turner pounded his way to 28 carries for 131 yards. I expect Josh McDaniels will utilize Moreno in a similar fashion, and would not be surprised to see a 25+ touch day for the former first round pick out of Georgia. This coupled with his recent nose for the end zone makes Moreno a rock solid RB2 play this week.

Sneaky Value

These players are risky but their matchup offers potential upside.

Green Bay @ Atlanta: James Jones – The return of Donald Driver (-3.7) may have scared some Jones (-3.6) owners last week. While Driver had one more target, Jones had the better statistical day. Driver totaled 31 yards on 4 catches. Jones managed 20 more yards on one less catch, and also found pay dirt. He’s scored in each of the last two weeks, and has looked to be a nice compliment to the explosive Greg Jennings.

The way to beat the Falcons is through the air. They have given up 14 TDs to WRs on the season, and 12 of them have come in the last 5 games. During that span, they yield an average 203.6 receiving yards to opposing WRs. Teams have found success throwing on the Falcons by picking on strong safety William Moore (-0.8), who has given up 3 TDs in his coverage this season. Though CB Brent Grimes has played well in coverage (+3.9) this season, he has had occasional lapses that have lead to 4 TDs. Look for Aaron Rodgers to spread the ball around as he has done very well as of recently. I wouldn’t expect a ton of targets for Jones, but I do like him as a sneaky flex play this week.

Carolina @ Cleveland: Mike Goodson – In his two games as the Panthers feature back, Goodson has been as effective, if not more, than DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Goodson topped the 100-yard mark in each of those games. This is especially impressive because the offensive woes in Carolina this season. While Stewart is likely to return to play this weekend, his 3.0 yards per carry this season is just plain ugly. I expect a fairly even split in workload, but believe Goodson will have the better day in the box score.

Though Cleveland grades out very strongly against the run (+46.5) and have given up just 3 TDs to opposing RBs this season, I believe they are trending downward. Maurice Jones-Drew made things look easy against the Brown last week, as he racked up 133 yards on the ground and notched a fourth quarter score. I expect Carolina to wage a ground war this weekend to keep the heat off of either Jimmy Clausen or Brian St. Pierre. While Stewart will likely touch the ball more, I like Goodson to do more with his touches. He makes an interesting flex play in deeper leagues.

Philadelphia @ Chicago: Jason Avant – Okay, so that dropped TD pass was ugly, but Avant (-0.3) is ordinarily very sure handed. He’s caught 75% of his targets this season. Among WRs who have played in at least 50% of their team’s offensive snaps, only Austin Collie, Danny Amendola, and Mario Manningham have caught a higher percentage of their targets.

I particularly like Avant this week because Chicago is very good in coverage (+12.1). That may seem counterintuitive, but hear me out. It’s no secret that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are good receivers and favorite targets of Michael Vick. The Bears know this and will focus on containing both speedy receivers. Vick will have to look elsewhere quite often on Sunday, and Avant should see more than the roughly 4 targets per game he currently averages. If you’re hurting at receiver and need a deeper play, Avant is intriguing. I would consider him at WR3, but only in the deepest of leagues.

Tennessee @ Houston: Nate Washington – Lost in all the hoopla of Randy Moss and Vince Young is the play of Washington (+1.0) in the last 3 games. In that stretch, he’s been targeted 9 times in each game. While he only caught 12 of those 27 targets, he’s found the end zone twice and topped 100 yards in two games. Though Rusty Smith may scare some Washington owners, this matchup is too good to pass up.

I hope you already know that Houston is atrocious against the pass (-60.2). Please take advantage of this defense that gives up a league-high 301.0 passing yards per game. Exploit this matchup just like NFL teams have exploited the Texans for 25 passing TDs and 13 passing plays of 40 or more yards. Start Washington as a flex with WR2 upside and enjoy.

Minnesota @ Washington: Sidney Rice – The wait is over. Rice returned from injury last week and played 36 of the Vikings 39 passing snaps and 56 of the 62 total snaps for Minnesota. So yeah, they’re not just easing him back into play. Having watched the game, I have to say that I was impressed with how Rice looked. He saw 10 targets in the game, and though he only managed 3 targets, he averaged 18.7 yards per reception.

The Redskins currently grade out as the fifth lowest rated defense in pass coverage (-18.7). They have given up 3 passing TDs in two of their last three games, and 18 on the season. Washington will again be without safety LaRon Landry, so expect Brett Favre to go after the Redskins secondary. With a new head coach, look for the Vikings offense to come out firing on all cylinders. Rice will again get plenty of targets in this one, but I expect to see more catches. Because of his upside, I like him as a sneaky WR2/flex play.

Miami @ Oakland: Brian Hartline – Hartline (+0.8) has put together a nice string of games over the last month. In that span, he’s posted a +4.3 PFF rating and racked up 306 receiving yards. He’s also being targeted a hair over 6 times per game in those 4 games. Last week against the Bears, Hartline was the only receiver who did anything for the Dolphins. His 5 catches and 70 yards led the team, and he seemed to have developed a nice chemistry with Tyler Thigpen. With Thigpen again at the helm, I expect a similar day for Hartline.

Oakland grades out slightly below average in coverage (-5.5) for the season, but only the Seahawks and Broncos yield more yards per reception than the 13.1 the Raiders currently give up. What particularly interests me about this matchup is that Oakland has given up 2 passing TDs to WRs in each of their last two games. Though I don’t expect much from the Dolphins offense, I do think they’ll be more productive than they were last week. With Brandon Marshall likely out, Thigpen will have to rely on Hartline, Davone Bess, and Anthrony Fasano in addition to his RBs in order to move the ball. Hartline will again see his share of targets, and makes an interesting flex/WR3 play in deep PPR leagues.

If you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe. Good luck this weekend!

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