Fantasy: Week 12 Waiver Wire
Players are sorted by position and ranked based on priority. This means that, in most formats, you’ll want to pick up the first name listed if several are available. Note that this advice is strictly for redraft formats and usually will lean towards a fairly standard 12-team PPR league.
Quarterbacks
Rusty Smith – Titans
Vince Young is done for the season and Kerry Collins is expected to miss another week or two of action. That leaves rookie Rusty Smith behind center for the near future. Even if Smith surprises and is productive on a per-pass basis (unlikely), the Titans are already one of the league’s run-heaviest teams, and will run even more with Smith at the helm. He will have the luxury of playmakers Randy Moss, Nate Washington, Chris Johnson, and potentially Kenny Britt at his disposal, but that will only be enough to make a borderline QB2 for a 1-2 week period. Leave him on the wire.
Running Backs
Chris Ivory – Saints
Ivory racked up a whopping 23 carries on Sunday, which is a sizable number for one back in a Sean Payton offense. Although he was relatively effective, Ivory’s long-term value is directly dependant on the injury status of Pierre Thomas and, to a lesser degree, Reggie Bush. If Bush returns in week 12 as expected, Ivory will lose only a handful of carries and can still be considered a Flex option, especially in standard scoring leagues. Once Thomas returns, however, Ivory is going to be no better than a part-time back with zero opportunity to rack up fantasy points via the receiving game. He’s worth consideration this Thursday, but Thomas is due back in 2-3 weeks, limiting Ivory’s value going forward.
Tashard Choice – Cowboys
Surprisingly, Choice has seen only 6% of Dallas’ carries and 3% of the targets this season. He did manage 4 touches on Sunday against Detroit, but that was mainly because Felix Jones was sidelined with an injury for a short period. Jones is expected back in time for Thursday’s game and he will split the carries with Marion Barber. Choice is always worth bench consideration in deeper leagues due to his upside should he get regular carries, but he needs an injury in order to see that playing time.
Jerome Felton / Maurice Morris / Aaron Brown – Lions
It appears that Jahvid Best will be out of action this Thursday and may not play much the rest of the season. That leaves the lawfirm of Felton, Morris, & Brown to handle the team’s carries. First of all, it’s worth noting that no team in the NFL throws the ball more than the Detroit Lions. They’ve dropped back to pass on just under two-thirds of their offensive plays. In addition, consider that the Lions, as a team, are not running the ball very well this season, averaging a poor 3.5 yards-per-carry. The team’s tail backs have combined to score on only 2.1% of their carries, which is about 1% lower than league average. As if it can’t get any worse, although Morris will likely handle the largest percentage of the carries, it is certainly going to be a committee attack. Morris will also handle 3rd down work, which makes him the most valuable of the bunch, especially in PPR leagues. He’s worth a bench flier in that format. Felton is an intriguing name, especially when you consider the impact current/former full backs have made in 2010 (eg. Mike Tolbert, John Kuhn, Peyton Hillis). If Best is out of action for an extended period, Morris will have to handle most of the passing down work, which means more early-down work for Felton. I don’t expect him to see more than 10-12 carries on a good day, but he could certainly vulture touchdowns, giving him some value in TD-heavy leagues. Aaron Brown touched the ball only 3 times on Sunday, but the second-year back is a sleeper to step into a more significant role. He’s only worth a look in leagues with very deep benches. In conclusion, it’s clear that this is a situation to avoid if you can. Each player has some upside in their own way, but it’s likely to be a crap shoot every week.
James Davis – Redskins
Reacting to injuries to Ryan Torain and Clinton Portis, the Redskins signed James Davis off their practice squad on Monday. Although he has very little NFL experience, the second-year man will see a handful of touches each week as long as he’s the only active tail back behind Keiland Williams. Still, Torain isn’t expected to be out long and Portis, although his status is completely in the air right now, could even return in week 12. Considering that Williams and Torain each rose to fantasy relevance at one point or another this season, it should be assumed that Davis can, too. He’s worth stashing on your bench if you have room, at least until we see his role over the next 2 weeks.
Dimitri Nance – Packers
Nance racked up 12 carries in garbage time against Minnesota on Sunday, but will not consistently approach double-digit touches going forward unless Brandon Jackson goes down with an injury. Jackson owners should consider him as a handcuff, but those of you in regular-sized leagues shouldn’t bother.
Wide Receivers
Mario Manningham / Derek Hagan / Duke Calhoun – Giants
The story of the week is the 3+ week injury to breakout star Hakeem Nicks. Nicks, who could potentially miss the rest of the regular season, had been targeted on 29% of Eli Manning’s pass attempts this season, which is the league’s 5th highest mark entering week 12. In addition, Steve Smith, who has been targeted on 21% of Manning’s targets despite missing 2 games, is also out for another week or 2 and is unlikely to be 100% healthy again this season. That leaves Mario Manningham and Derek Hagan as the starters and Duke Calhoun as the #3 WR until further notice. Manningham has already seen 55 targets this season and should have little trouble filling in for Nicks. Considering how heavily Manning relies on his top receivers, Manningham should be considered a borderline WR1 until Nicks returns to action. If he’s available in your league, go hard after him. Hagan was only signed last week, but did play a reserve role for the team in 2009 and racked up 9 targets this past Sunday. He is certainly a risky play, but will see enough targets to warrant WR3 consideration. He’s worth a bench spot in most formats. Calhoun is unlikely to play much of a role, especially when you consider that Travis Beckum will steal some of the slot work, but is worth a flier in deep leagues.
James Jones – Packers
Jones continues to emerge as the Packers #2 WR, but his upside remains limited by the presence of Donald Driver. There is no doubt that he should be owned in all formats right now, but he’s a risky start until he solidifies more of a regular role. Expect him to approach close to 20% of the Packers targets going forward, which makes him a top 40 option at the position. If he takes over the starting job, he’s a must-start every week.
Blair White – Colts
Austin Collie left Sunday’s game due to concussion-related symptoms, which opens the door, once again, for Blair White. White will slide back into the slot role, which immediately makes him WR3 option, especially in PPR formats. Expect him to average 6-8 targets each game as long as he’s handling the slot snaps. Make sure you put in a claim and ride him out until Collie returns.
Kenny Britt – Titans
Kenny Britt could be back in action in a week or two, which means it’s time to snag him up off the waiver wire if he’s still available. The Titans acquired Randy Moss since Britt last played and the team currently has quarterback issues, but remember that it was Kerry Collins who was behind center when Britt had his coming out party against the Eagles last month. Collins will be back about the same time as Britt and one would have to imagine that the sophomore receiver will see a ton of work, especially as the team tries to make a playoff push. The team won’t need 2 down-field threats on the field every play, which means good news for Moss/Britt and bad news for Nate Washington, who will move to the #3 WR role. Britt is worth WR3 consideration upon his return and his almost unlimited potential gives him even more value.
Danario Alexander – Rams
Alexander was almost able to make a week 11 return and has a good chance of returning in week 12. The undrafted rookie has a ton of talent, but can’t seem to stay healthy. Although the Rams offense provided us with fantasy-relevant Mark Clayton earlier this year, Alexander is extremely raw and has a tougher road to consistent playing time. Brandon Gibson and the now-healthy Laurent Robinson have been handling the split end and flanker duties, while Danny Amendola has been stellar as the team’s slot receiver. Alexander’s upside makes him worth a look in deeper leagues, but expectations should be limited.
Ben Obomanu / Deon Butler / Golden Tate – Seahawks
I mentioned Obomanu last week after it was announced that he had replaced Deon Butler in the team’s starting lineup, but he, along with rookie Golden Tate, are worth discussing again after the injury to Mike X. Williams. If Williams misses a few games as expected, it’s likely that Obomanu and Butler would take over as the short-term starters. Tate has been out of the lineup with an injury of his own, but is expected back this week. A first round pick in April, coach Pete Carroll is likely to get his potential superstar wide out as much action as possible. Veteran slot man Brandon Stokley will continue to steal targets away from all of these guys, however, and the Seahawks aren’t exactly rocking a high-scoring offense. Tate is worth grabbing in deep leagues because of his potential, but I’d stay away from Obomanu and Butler in all but very deep leagues.
Tiquan Underwood / Kassim Osgood – Jaguars
With news that Mike Sims-Walker is out for several weeks, Tiquan Underwood and Kassim Osgood are now the team’s #2 and #3 options at wide receiver. Neither has been very good this season and both are completely unreliable in fantasy. The team is more likely to target tight ends Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller more often. Leave them both on the wire.
Andre Roberts – Cardinals
Roberts racked up a whopping 11 targets on Sunday, taking advantage of an injury to Early Doucet. Even if Doucet misses a few weeks, Roberts would be no better than the Cardinal’s third wide receiver. That would earn him 5-6 targets most weeks, but the Cardinals do no sport a very good passing offense, making Roberts all but useless in most formats. Leave him on waivers.
Tight Ends
Kevin Boss / Travis Beckum – Giants
With Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith out for, at least, a few weeks, Kevin Boss and Travis Beckum are expected to see more action in the passing game. Boss already sees 3-4 targets a week, but should average 1-2 more and will be more of a threat in the redzone. Beckum has interestingly been targeted at least once but never more than twice in all 10 Giants games this season. He is a better receiving option than the team’s current #3 WR (Duke Calhoun) and is expected to see a handful of snaps lined up as the slot receiver. Boss is almost worth TE1 consideration at this point, but I’d still argue that there are 12 better options most weeks. Regardless, he should be owned. Beckum’s increase in role will not be enough to warrant fantasy consideration in all but very deep leagues.
Zach Miller – Jaguars
I discussed Miller last week, but he’s worth mentioning again after the news that Mike Sims-Walker could be out up to a month. David Garrard will rely heavily on top receiver Mike Thomas, tight end Marcedes Lewis, and running back Maurice Jones-Drew in the passing game, but the team really has no standout receiver after those three. That leaves Miller as the next best option. The former college quarterback turned NFL tight end has seen a significant jump in snaps over the team’s last 5 games and should be even more involved with Sims-Walker out. Expect him to see upwards of 5-7 targets some weeks, which certainly warrants fantasy consideration. The Jaguars are a run-first team, which limits the upside of all Jaguars pass-catchers, but Miller’s upside makes him worth back-end TE2 consideration.
Jimmy Graham – Saints
With Jeremy Shockey inactive on Sunday, rookie Jimmy Graham was targeted on 8 of his 21 pass routes, racking up 5 receptions and 72 yards. Clearly, he is able to get open and Drew Brees isn’t afraid to look his way. As long as Shockey is out, Graham will see action, but veteran Dave Thomas will continue to limit his upside. Thomas was actually 2nd on the team in pass routes Sunday and was targeted 5 times. Graham has the most upside of the 3, but is a better dynasty prospect than 2010 redraft option. He’s a TE2 option if Shockey is inactive, but that’s all.
Joel Dreessen – Texans
Dreessen hauled in all four of his targets for 106 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, but, as mentioned in previous editions of Waiver Wire, he’s only valuable if Owen Daniels is out of action. Daniels is likely to be back in a week or two, which sends Dreessen back to fantasy irrelevance. He will border on TE1 material if Daniels is out this week, but the fact that he won’t be the starter going forward hurts his overall value.