Let me start by noting that Ryan Fitzpatrick currently ranks 25th among quarterbacks in my rest-of-season player rankings. Considering how well he’s played the last few weeks, that should raise an eyebrow. Let me explain.
The chart below compares some of Fitpatrick’s advanced stats to his career marks, the NFL average over the last decade, and five of the top fantasy quarterbacks this season. Note where he stands in each category and you can easily see why regression is in his future. In fact, also included here are my projected rates for Fitpatrick going forward in 2010. My projected completion percentage, yards/completion, and yards/attempt are coincidentally (or maybe not) right on target with the league average. All 3 are lower than what he’s put up so far in 2010, but not by much, and are also significantly higher than his career numbers. Consider that his career marks reflect 734 pass attempts, most of which came over the last 2 seasons. His 2010 numbers are based off 128.
|Ryan Fitzpatrick||2005-2009 Career||58%||9.7||5.6||5.0%||2.9%||3.7%|
|Ryan Fitzpatrick||2010 Proj||61%||11.5||7.0||6.3%||3.8%||3.0%|
Next up, take a look at his absurd touchdown rate this season. 8.6% TD/Attempt is an impossible rate to keep up, and that should be obvious when you compare it to the other elite quarterbacks in the league. To give you an idea of how high that is, if the average NFL quarterback throws 33 passes/game (he does), that would work out to 45 touchdowns over 16 games. Tom Brady’s TD/Att in his record-setting 2007 was 8.7% and his Touchdowns/completion mark that season (12.6%) was actually lower than what we’ve seen from Fitzpatrick in 2010. Expect Fitzpatrick’s touchdowns to, at least, be cut in half going forward.
Finally, although Buffalo has passed it more than usual over the last few weeks, they generally lean more on the run if they can. Additionally, consider the total offensive play numbers for Buffalo this season. During weeks 1-5, they recorded 53 twice, 54 twice, and 46 once. In week 7’s overtime thriller vs. Baltimore, they were on the field for 79 offensive plays.
Ryan Fitzpatrick will not continue this torrid pace he is on. Leave him on waivers and, instead, go after a guy like Matthew Stafford or Jon Kitna.