Fantasy: Week 3 Waiver Wire
Players are sorted by position and ranked based on priority. This means that, in most formats, you’ll want to pick up the first name listed if several are available. Note that this advice is strictly for redraft formats and usually will lean towards a fairly standard 12-team PPR league.
Quarterbacks:
Mark Sanchez – New York
An inflated touchdown rate has many jumping on the Mark Sanchez bandwagon this week. His 7.6% TD/Att mark ranks second in the NFL behind only Tom Brady. Note that Sanchez’s 2009 mark in this department was 3.3%. He has also yet to throw an interception, which is another category on his stat sheet that will be attacked by regression in the coming weeks. Although we are correct in assuming Sanchez is a better quarterback now than he was during his rookie campaign, the Jets are and will continue to be a run-heavy team. That will continue to limit Sanchez’s upside. He’s off to a good start, but watch for regression to kick in soon. He’s no better than a back-end QB2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Buffalo
Fitzpatrick was so “good” in his first start of 2010 that the Bills almost knocked off the Patriots and followed that by cutting week 2 starter Trent Edwards. Remember that “good” for the Bills isn’t necessarily good for fantasy. Fitzpatrick still has to try and run a poor offense and doesn’t have a ton of talent to throw to. The Bills also appear committed to the running game, which means even fewer point-scoring opportunities for Fitzpatrick. He’s not even worth QB2 consideration. Leave him on the wire.
Charlie Batch / Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh
Batch’s 3 touchdown performance in Sunday’s blowout of the Buccanneers is a bit deceiving. Consider that he threw only 17 passes. In fact, 3 of his 12 completions (25%) were touchdowns. Expecting him to keep up that rate would be irresponsible. Batch was also intercepted twice, but did add a few points with his legs (5 carries, 26 yards). Batch will get one more start for the Steelers, but you shouldn’t feel too confident in him as your fantasy starter. Leave him on the wire.
Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that Ben Roethlisberger has only one game remaining on his 4 game suspension. He is owned in most leagues, but if he’s sitting on your waiver wire, be sure to grab him now, especially if you’re shaky at quarterback. He’s a QB1 from week 6 on.
Running Backs:
Peyton Hillis – Cleveland
Hillis is probably owned in your league, but, if not, be sure he’s your top priority this week. His huge week 3 performance against a tough Ravens defense should solidify him as the top dog in the Browns’ backfield. Jerome Harrison will steal, at least, a few carries once he is healthy, but Hillis also sees plenty of third down work, making him a decent RB2 play every week. The name James Davis has also popped up as a contender for carries, but he proved not to be a threat, with only four week 3 touches.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis / Danny Woodhead – New England
Both of these guys made an impact in Sunday’s game against Buffalo, combining for 19 carries, 140 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Green-Ellis took advantage of an early injury to Fred Taylor and led the team in carries for the second straight game. Woodhead had only 3 carries, but made the highlight reels with a 22 yard touchdown run. Green-Ellis is worth a bench spot, but remember that the Patriots backfield will continue to be a committee. You shouldn’t expect him to carry the ball 16 times most weeks. Woodhead is only worth a look in very deep leagues as a speculative bench player.
LeGarrette Blount – Tampa Bay
Blount made his NFL debut on Sunday and led the Buccaneeers in rushing. As impressive as that may sound, he did it by carrying the ball only 6 times for 27 yards. Still, he did score a touchdown and seems to be in line for an increased workload thanks to the ineffectiveness of Cadillac Williams. Blount is worth a speculative bench spot, but he isn’t going to score very often in this underwhelming offense and will still have to fight for carries with Williams, Earnest Graham, and potentially Kareem Huggins.
Kenneth Darby / Keith Toston – St. Louis
This one is all relative. If Steven Jackson turns out to be healthy enough to play in week 4, neither of these guys have value. If Jackson misses some time, they are worth investigating. Neither was very effective while Jackson was out on Sunday, but they did combine for 26 touches. Darby also managed to find the endzone, which proves the theory that there is fantasy value in touches, regardless of how poor you play. If Jackson is out and you’re desperate for a Flex play this week, Darby is the man you want. Jackson owners should really be looking elsewhere, however, for help at RB if their early round pick is out long term.
Ryan Torain / Keiland Williams – Washington
In what was a bit of surprise move, the Redskins elected to give recently-activated Ryan Torain a team-high 7 carries on Sunday, while Keiland Williams saw no carries and 4 targets. Torain managed to rack up 46 yards on those 7 carries and looks to be the new RB2 in Washington. Williams has yet to carry the ball this season and doesn’t seem to be a threat to either Portis or Torain. That all being said, Torain is worth a bench spot in deeper leagues. Williams should be left on the wire.
Laurence Maroney – Denver
With Knowshon Moreno out, Laurence Maroney led the Broncos in carries and touches in week 3. Correll Buckhalter chipped in with 11 looks (7 targets, 4 carries), but Maroney paved the way with 15 looks, 12 of which were carries. Moreno’s injury doesn’t appear to be too serious, but, if he misses any more time, it’s clear that Maroney is second in line for carries. Still, you shouldn’t feel too confident with him in your lineup. Note that he managed a pretty awful 24 yards on those 12 carries and turned passing down duties over to Buckhalter. It’s a situation to avoid unless Moreno is out and you’re desperate for a bye week fill-in at flex.
Michael Bush – Oakland
Bush returned to the lineup Sunday and, as expected, played second fiddle to Darren McFadden. Bush carried it only 3 times, but it’s worth noting that he did see a goal line carry. He’s worth a bench spot only because he would be worth a weekly start should McFadden miss time with an injury.
Wide Receivers:
Lance Moore – New Orleans
I mentioned Moore after week 1, but he’s worth mentioning again after exploding in week 3. The message here is basically the same as it was in week 1: there is a lot to like here, but he’s a risky play. The Saints love to throw and Moore is one of team’s top targets, but they spread the ball around so much that even Marques Colston has some terrible weeks (4 catches, 25 yards in week 3). Consider that Moore didn’t play much and went without a target in week 2. He’s worth a bench spot, but start him at your own risk.
Earl Bennett – Chicago
Bennett seems to be the clear WR3 in Chicago right now and, although that really only makes him the 4th or 5th option in the passing game, this is the Bears’ pass-heavy offense we’re talking about. In fact, despite barely playing week 1, Bennett already has 11 targets this season, which isn’t far behind his competition: Devin Hester (12), Greg Olsen (13), Matt Forte (15), and Johnny Knox (17). He’s not quite worth WR4 status in fantasy, but he should be owned in most leagues.
Brian Hartline / Davone Bess – Miami
Both Hartline and Bess have seen their share of ups and downs already this season, but both have shown flashes of fantasy relevance. The question is: who is the one to own? Hartline has seen 2 more targets and has the only touchdown between the two, but Bess has 5 more receptions and 37 more yards. Because Hartline works mostly from the outside and down the field, while Bess is more of a possession receiver, roll with Hartline in standard scoring leagues and Bess in PPR. Both are WR5 options in PPR.
Josh Cribbs – Cleveland
Cribbs is getting more involved in the offense, which means he’s, at least, a name to keep in the back of your mind. The Browns offense isn’t anything special, but they’ll continue to find ways to get Cribbs the ball. In deeper leagues, he’s worth a speculative bench play, but don’t put him in your starting lineup quite yet.
Darrius Heyward-Bey – Oakland
This may seem hard to believe, but Heyward-Bey is 20th in the NFL in targets. Unfortunately for his fantasy stock, he’s caught only 38% of his 26 targets (the average wide receiver catches close to 57%). The target figure makes him worth bench consideration, but the Raiders passing offense is less than impressive and he needs to prove he can translate targets into receptions before he is worth an add.
Golden Tate – Seattle
Tate has already made an impact on the Seahawks’ return game, but is becoming more and more involved in the Seahawks offense, as well. The problem, however, will continue to be the competition. Mike Williams and Deion Branch seem to be locked in as the starters, while Deon Butler and John Carlson are also in the way for targets. Still, the Seahawks didn’t waste an early round pick on Tate so he can rot away on the bench. Add him to your bench in deeper leagues and watch for his snap count to continue its upward trend.
Arrelious Benn – Tampa Bay
Benn finally got in on the action in week 3 with 3 targets, 3 receptions, and 33 yards. Going forward, it looks like the Buccaneers could move Sam Stroughter to the slot, which means Benn would join fellow rookie Mike Williams as a starter on the outside. Although there is upside here, he is still likely to be, at best, the 3rd option in the passing game, behind Williams and Kellen Winslow. When you also consider that Stroughter and Micheal Spurlock will be in the mix for looks, it’s hard to get too excited. Benn is only worth a bench spot in deeper leagues.
Blair White – Indianapolis
With Pierre Garcon out with an injury, White filled in at WR3 on Sunday. Peyton Manning targeted him 6 times, 3 of which were caught for 27 yards and 1 score. Garcon isn’t expected to be out long, which means not much value for White going forward. Leave him on the wire.
Tight Ends:
Dustin Keller – New York
Over the last 2 days, I’ve received a ton of questions on Twitter (@PFF_MikeClay) regarding Dustin Keller’s fantasy value. Averaging 8 targets, 5 receptions, 75 yards, and 1 score over 2010’s first 3 games, he is clearly Mark Sanchez’s favorite target. Still, it’s important to remember that the Jets are run-first, which limits the targets of all Jets pass catchers. It’s also worth noting that Santonio Holmes will make his Jets debut shortly, with only one game left on his suspension. This means that the Jets will be forced split 20-23 targets per week between Keller, Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cotchery. Obviously, there are some risks here, but Keller’s early season performance means he has to be considered a top 10 option at tight end going forward.
Aaron Hernandez – New England
As if we needed another tight end to throw into the “borderline TE1” mix, Aaron Hernandez has hauled in 13 of his 15 targets thus far for 211 yards. He is clearly going to be a favorite target of Brady going forward and don’t be surprised if only Moss and Welker beat him out in the reception department going forward. He’s a great TE2 in 12-team leagues and could end up as a back-end TE1 by the end of the season.
Jeremy Shockey – New Orleans
Shockey put up huge week 3 numbers (8 targets, 8 receptions, 78 yards, TD), but let me remind you of my thoughts on Lance Moore. The Saints will continue to throw a ton (a good thing for Shockey), but there is no telling who the big winner will be each week. In fact, Shockey’s 8 week 3 targets matched the total targets he had coming into the game. His catch rate of 88% is also way above the 73% mark he put up over the last two seasons. This offense is good enough to make Shockey a serviceable TE2, but nothing more.
Brandon Pettigrew – Detroit
Pettigrew ranks 13th among tight ends in targets this season, which is impressive considering that he is 2nd on his own team in that department. The Lions have relied on top tight end Tony Scheffler and Pettigrew heavily in the pass game and you shouldn’t expect a significant change going forward. Nate Burleson was injured early in the team’s week 2 game, which has led to more of a reliance on Pettigrew, but, even when Burleson is back, Pettigrew should see enough work to be considered a back-end TE2. There might a few safer TE2 options, but when you consider Pettigrew’s upside, he is worth a look.
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