Four analysts, four questions: NFC South
Since being incorporated in 2002, the NFC South has had a fair bit of success. It’s had two Super Bowl champions (Tampa in 2002, New Orleans 2009), plus an appearance by Carolina in 2003, and as recently as 2008 all four teams were at .500 or better and three in the playoffs.
Do the Falcons have what it takes to rejoin the playoff race? Are the Panthers really going to win more than seven games? Does Tampa Bay still have a team? Our version of the Fab Four tries to answer as our series of division Q and A previews continues. –
Who’s your breakout player for 2010?
Ben Stockwell: Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina. Johnson outperformed Tyler Brayton last year but wasn’t given the snaps ahead of him at DE opposite Julius Peppers. With Peppers gone, Johnson has the platform to emerge as a top defensive end.
Neil Hornsby: I’m always hesitant when coaches start pumping up a player in preseason but I definitely like what Tampa Bay OLB Quincy Black brings to the table. He’s a fine coverage linebacker who was often removed in nickel last year, which seemed bizarre. This year he’ll stay on the field the whole time as the Bucs will either drop a DT or Geno Hayes on passing downs. This is an eminently more sensible package and will help both Black and Hayes play to their strengths.
Khaled Elsayed: Was there any doubt about me going for anyone other than Kroy Biermann? Our 14th-ranked defensive end has got a lot of good press in Atlanta and really looks like a guy who can do it all. So with more than 499 defensive snaps I can see him improving on his sacks (5), total pressures (30) and defensive stops (23) this year. I don’t know if his sack count will be huge, but I can see him having a big impact on what the Falcons’ defense is able to do.
Sam Monson: Harry Douglas. I liked what I saw from the speedy Falcons wideout in 2008 before he was injured, and with Michael Jenkins a question mark with injuries he could emerge as a solid weapon for Matt Ryan.
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The over-under lines for season win totals in the division are: New Orleans , 10.5, Atlanta, 9, Carolina, 7, and Tampa, 5.5. On which team would you put your theoretical $100?
Neil: I’ve got no love for Matt Moore until he does something worth getting excited about. I think the expectations for Carolina are inflated in line with his passer rating last year and I’m going under.
Khaled: I’ll take the under on Carolina as well. That defense is brutal. Outside of Jon Beason, Charles Johnson and possibly Everette Brown breaking out, just what exactly do they have? I didn’t think they could make their defensive tackle position worse after last year but they did. The Panthers can run, but not much else. They could be really bad this year.
Sam: New Orleans over 10.5. I’m not wild on risking my $100 on this one, but New Orleans has too much firepower to not make it to 11 wins over the season. They should be helped by a couple of weaker teams in the division too.
Ben: New Orleans, over. Much like the Colts with Manning, the Saints with Brees are a team set up to win regular-season football games. With their O-line and running backs, this offense is too good and too balanced not to win 11 games or more.
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What do you see as the positional strength of the division?
Neil: The NFC South has both quality and quantity at halfback. Michael Turner looks ready to pick up where he left off before his injury, the Panthers’ season will be tied to how Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams run, Pierre Thomas needs more carries to show his true value and become a superstar, but he’s at the very least excellent. In Tampa, Cadillac Williams has an injury-free season behind him and hopefully won’t hit the wall he did in the last third of 2009.
Khaled: Agreed, running backs. Stewart was our No. 3 rusher in 2009 and DeAngelo Williams No. 1 in 2008. Throw in some contributors like Jerious Norwood, Reggie Bush and Jason Snelling for some extremely deep backfields.
Sam: I third the motion.
Ben: Since you guys always make me go last, I’m throwing my original notes away and going with pass-rushers. Charles Johnson, Kroy Biermann, John Abraham, Styles G. White, Will Smith and Bobby McCray — these guys were all in the top third in pass rush among 4-3 ends last year. Even without Julius Peppers, that’s a lot to worry about in pass protection.
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Who is going to make the playoffs from the division, and do they have a shot to win it all?
Khaled: The Saints look too good on offense not to win the division but it will be tough for them to repeat given the lack of defensive upgrades they’ve made. They’re a match for anyone but they also look more than capable of losing to decent teams who go at that defense. The Falcons may actually be a more complete team and so the playoffs should be a minimum aim, but if some of their young players emerge (particularly on defense) they could be a dark horse to watch out for.
Neil: Once again the Saints win the division, but are joined in the postseason this time by the Falcons. I’m not sure either team has the defense to go the whole way, but I said that about the Saints last year, too!
Ben: New Orleans and Atlanta. Both teams are capable of going all the way, but do the Saints have the hunger to repeat? And do the Falcons have the defense to step forward and be a real postseason threat?
Sam: I’ll make it a clean sweep: New Orleans and Atlanta. The Saints should be comfortable, but Matt Ryan leads the Falcons to a wild-card spot. The Falcons don’t have enough for an extended playoff run, and New Orleans gets to the NFC Championship game before coming up one short.
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