Four analysts, four questions: AFC South
Our division Q and As continue with the AFC South, where few things are surer than death, taxes and Peyton Manning’s Colts winning at least 10 games and probably 12.
Our four tape-hounds put their collective heads together to look at the South, identify the breakout players and pick winners.
Does anyone have the temerity to pick against Indy? Only a fateful click of the mouse will reveal the not-so-shocking truth!
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Who’s your breakout player for 2010?
Khaled Elsayed: The Texans like to rotate their receivers and all the signs suggest Jacoby Jones will see more than the 277 snaps and 35 targets he got last year. Considering how dynamic a playmaker he can be and how productive he was when he was on the field, he could be in line for a substantial increase on the 437 yards and 6 touchdowns 2009 brought.
Neil Hornsby: I like Jaguars DT Terrence Knighton a lot. He’s a straightforward run defender who needs to come out on passing downs more, but every time I watch him I like what I see; he can beat a double team. As an aside, I was also quite impressed with Tyson Alualu on the few plays I saw in preseason and it’s possible the Jaguars may end up having the last laugh there as this pair could make a formidable duo.
Ben Stockwell: Jacoby Jones. With the promise of more snaps in 2010 for Jones to make an impact he can emerge as a true second threat in Houston. Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels demand attention, leaving Jones favorable matchups to emerge this fall.
Sam Monson: Amobi Okoye. Everybody has soured on the Texans’ young DT ever fulfilling his potential at this stage, but he has only just turned 23, and he has talent. This is the year he shows it. Honest.
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The over-under lines for season win totals in the division are: Indianapolis, 10.5, Houston, 8.5, Tennessee, 8.5, and Jacksonville, 7. On which team would you put your theoretical $100?
Neil: I’m quite bullish about Tennessee winning 9+. Chris Johnson did all that behind a line that didn’t really perform in 2009 and I think they’ll be back on from here.
Khaled: Houston looks like a better than .500 team. There’s no reason that offense shouldn’t be somewhere near as explosive as last year, factoring in that they look better built to run the ball. I’m putting a lot of faith in Matt Schaub being more than a one-season wonder, but they look like a playoff team to me.
Ben: Houston, over. The passing game front front seven is good enough for the Texans to win more football games in 2010; a winning record seems like a lock, it’s a question of whether the offensive line and defensive backfield are good enough to take them to the playoffs.
Sam: Tennessee, under. The Titans rode Chris Johnson to a comeback last season, but he won’t repeat that this season, and that leaves them struggling for .500.
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What do you see as the positional strength of the division?
Neil: I often think of tight ends in the AFC South. Dallas Clark and Owen Daniels are superb receivers with teams that like two-TE formations. In Jacksonville, Marcedes Lewis is a up-and-coming all-arounder who blocks as well as he catches, while for the Titans, Bo Scaife, Craig Stevens and Jared Cook will rotate as the situation dictates.
Khaled: I’m a fan of what each quarterback brings to their team. I don’t need to write any more superlatives about Peyton Manning as I think he’ll go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. Schaub was excellent in 2009 and works so well with the options the Texans have. I’ve written before about my belief that David Garrard may be the most underrated quarterback in the league and even in Vince Young (the only one of the quarterbacks not ranking in the top ten) the Titans have a guy who contributes enormously to the success of their rushing attack by what he forces defenses to accommodate.
Sam: Defensive end. Freeney and Mathis are as destructive a pass rushing duo as there is. Mario Williams is a monster and Antonio Smith should have a better second season. Jacob Ford is a very underrated pass rusher and … well, Jacksonville’s Derrick Harvey might be better this year. He almost has to be.
Ben: Why do I always go last when someone’s already taken my answer? Defensive end.
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Who is going to make the playoffs from the division, and do they have a shot to win it all?
Khaled: I’m not going to look past the Colts to win the division and go deep into the playoffs. They most certainly have a shot to win it all, though they’re too reliant on key players in my opinion and it’s what cost them last year when Dwight Freeney was less than 100 percent. I can see the Texans picking up a wild-card spot, but I don’t know if they have the pass defense to go far.
Neil: I also can’t see past the Colts (although it will be closer this year). The Titans will also get in as the fifth seed, with the Texans finishing “on the bubble” at No. 7. Anyone with Peyton Manning at QB has the chance to go all the way.
Sam: Indianapolis and Houston. Indy wins another divisional title, but Houston finally gets the monkey off its back and makes the playoffs for the first time in its history. The Colts will again come close but not all the way, while the Texans could scare people in the postseason.
Ben: Colts. Another stellar regular season is a given, but will that team stand up come playoff time?
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