With all the kerosene Matt Forte used to burn his owners last season, it’s no wonder his stock sunk so low in the off-season. Understandably, owners are wary of Forte going into the 2010 campaign. I am here to allay your fears.

Matt Forte burst onto the scene in 2008 and became a fantasy star for those who took a chance on him. This propelled him into the ADP stratosphere for 2009, which backfired on his owners. Going into this season, Forte has been relegated to a low-end RB2 – he is being drafted as the 19^th back according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com – not exactly obscurity, but a less-attractive option for owners this season. Unproven commodities like Jahvid Best and Ryan Matthews are being drafted well ahead of the three-year veteran, and owners have been reticent on Forte.

Indeed, Forte can be a scary prospect. His 2009 PFF statistical rating does not bode well for my position:

His ranking is dead last amongst running backs with at least 25% of their team’s carries last season. Although he nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing on 57 fewer attempts than in his rookie season, his YPC was a paltry 3.6, and as good as he was in 2008, he only had 3.9 YPC that season. Contributing to his sophomore slump, Forte developed some fumbling issues after having fumbled just once as a rookie. As a receiver, he remained steady last season but did not score a touchdown. Forte only scored four overall touchdowns in 2009, which was really where his fantasy value took a hit.

There are a several explanations (ahem, excuses), though, for Forte’s horrible 2009 rating as a runner:  Forte came into camp out of shape, got banged up during the preseason and early in the regular season, played behind a bad offensive line – the 26^th-ranked o-line according to PFF – and had Jay Cutler throwing interceptions left and right. Injuries were his biggest impediment; nagging leg injuries can be a bane to running backs, and Forte fought through a bad hamstring and sprained MCL for most of the season. It is worth mentioning that, despite these issues, Forte managed to play in all 16 regular season games during his first two seasons, which is more than can be said of many backs being drafted ahead of him.

Indeed, Forte’s 2008 statistics are a better indicator of what he might do if he stays healthy:

Forte was rated 12^th amongst backs with at least 25% of his team’s carries; 7^th amongst backs with at least 50% of the carries according to PFF. Of course, this analysis has a disappointing rating of -7.0 for Forte as a runner; being good at running the ball tends to be the most important talent of a running back.

Forte has spoken about his injury-plagued 2009 campaign, and how he feels healthy going into 2010. He came into camp in great shape, and thus far in the preseason, he has been stellar. From all accounts, he has regained the explosiveness he had during his rookie season, and it showed with an 89-yard TD burst against the Raiders.  Injuries are unpredictable, but if Forte can stay healthy, the preseason has been a good indicator of his potential going forward. His overall durability gives him a boost whereas bigger injury risks like Frank Gore, Michael Turner and Steven Jackson take a hit in my personal rankings.

To add to Forte’s downside this season, the Bears brought in Chester Taylor, whereas there was no real competition in Chicago’s backfield last season. Taylor figures to play a third down role and could take away a big chunk of Forte’s fantasy value. To add the cherry on top, Mike Martz runs a pass-happy offense that, on the surface, reduces the value at running back.

Everyone who is seriously interested, though, knows the Marshall Faulk argument – Mike Martz presided over the Rams offense during the Best Show on Turf, including some of Faulk’s best years. More specifically, Martz was there during all but one of Faulk’s best seasons. Here is a breakdown:

Faulk arrived at the same time as Martz in 1999, and both helped turn the St. Louis Rams into an offensive juggernaut.  Unfortunately for Faulk and the Rams, injuries began piling up for Faulk after the 2001 season and the Steven Jackson era began in 2005. Even so, Faulk was still productive from a fantasy perspective in his decline years.

The most telling statistics are on the receiving end. Faulk was arguably the most dangerous back coming out of the backfield during his heyday. Where we draw the line between talent and coaching is debatable; Faulk certainly had great years in Indianapolis before he worked with Martz. Still, the statistics do not lie. As much as the offense was predicated on the pass, Faulk had tremendous fantasy value in all scoring formats. Matt Forte is being downplayed, in part, because of the notion that the offense will be pass-oriented, yet Faulk’s statistics tell another story.

Meanwhile, here is how Forte fared as a receiver in 2009:

Although this rates him in the middle of the pack amongst the starters, he is rated higher than some running backs going much higher in ADP: DeAngelo Williams (-0.7 pass rating), Turner (-1.0), Jamaal Charles (-1.9) and Ryan Grant (-3.8), to name a few. Forte is no slouch catching passes, steadily averaging 60 receptions and 474 yards over his first two seasons. Also to note, his rating as a receiver was a healthy 8.3 in 2008. Interestingly, Forte’s ADP is virtually the same between standard and PPR formats – 19 vs. 18 – even though he clearly has more value in PPR leagues.

Perhaps Chester Taylor will cut down on Forte’s receiving opportunities, but the career backup has been unimpressive thus far with the Bears, and his tenure as Peterson’s backup was not particularly noteworthy, especially in 2009:

Taylor’s YPC was also a meager 3.6 last season, granted his career average is 4.3. He has some value as a receiver, but he turns 31 this fall, which might be why he has looked sluggish in preseason. He’s got far less mileage than, say, LaDainian Tomlinson, but I have my doubts about Taylor taking on a significant role in this offense.

There are arguments against Forte regarding other backs who played under Martz, but frankly they do not hold water. Frank Gore had only had one season under Martz*, and it was nearly identical to his previous season without the ballyhooed offensive coordinator

Kevin Jones, the only other significant starter under Martz, was simply not a great back, though he did catch 61 passes in 2006 during Martz’s first season in Detroit.

Forte had a great rookie season that could have been better as a rusher. Still, he broke Bears rookie records for rushing yards (1,238), yards from scrimmage (1,750), and receptions (63) which is pretty impressive for a team whose former running backs include Gayle Sayers and Walter Payton. Indeed, he took a step back in 2009 for reasons that have been outlined, but I believe he is primed to burst into the running back elite in 2010, especially in PPR leagues. He’s got the talent, health, team, and offensive coordinator to do it.

Related posts:

1. Fantasy: NFC North Report
2. Fantasy: Mike Martz — The Offense
3. Fantasy: NFC North Report
4. Fantasy: Redraft Value Grades – The Fs
5. Fantasy: Passing Fancy – Martz Does Chi-Town

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