Good news/bad news: San Francisco 49ers
It was a strange season for the 49ers. They started off looking like playoff contenders with a dominant defense. Then they faded when it became apparent they couldn’t pass the ball. Then they appeared to find their level as a team that could hang with the better teams but not beat them.
The big worry for aspirations beyond the playoffs is that of their seven wins, five came in their own division. With their other victories coming against Jacksonville and Chicago, it’s not the most impressive list of conquests.
So if San Francisco is going to progress, it must start doing better against the big teams. But are the 49ers capable of that?
THE GOOD NEWS
1. The incredible Justin Smith.
As you would expect with a Mike Singletary team, it starts with defense.
The defense did a good job of keeping them in games (and winning them some) when the offense spluttered, and it owed a lot to the excellent work of our top-ranked 3-4 defensive end.
In a world where the immediate stat line wasn’t everything, Justin Smith would have been a contender for defensive player of the year. He was very good in 2008 (+18.6 overall rating) but he was out of this world good in 2009 (+44.1 overall rating with just one negative game).
Working as the right end in the base 3-4 look, and inside at tackle in nickel packages, Smith was the definition of productive. His 66 total pressures saw him rank only behind DeMarcus Ware in this regard, an astonishing 34 more than the nearest 3-4 end.
He wasn’t limited to just rushing the passer, though, as Smith was a more than capable run-defender (+7.2 rating) and finished the season with 34 defensive stops. He may get credit, but he really doesn’t get his due after the kind of season that would be hard for anyone to replicate. You’ve set the (red and) gold standard, Smith. Can you keep it up?
2. You can‘t run straight down these guys’ throats.
It would be too easy to write some nice things about how great Patrick Willis is, but then everybody knows that. In short, Willis is to inside linebackers what Smith is to the right end spot on a three-man line — simply phenomenal but with room for improvement (he’s a pedestrian blitzer with a +0.6 rating).
Instead we’d like to turn our attention to an oft-forgotten but extremely productive player in Takeo Spikes. Spikes doesn’t see time in the nickel defense for the most part, and he doesn’t have the camera trailed on him waiting for him to do something special, but he gets the job done. It’s quite remarkable for a middle linebacker like Spikes to not miss a single tackle during the 2009 season.
Our fourth-ranked overall inside linebacker may be getting older but he’s a vital cog in the 49ers’ defense. Being able to pair the two gives the 49ers a practically perfect set of inside linebackers, both of whom are helped by the stout work of Aubrayo Franklin in front of them.
Franklin, our seventh-ranked run-stopping defensive tackle, doesn’t just help these two makes plays but makes them himself. His 35 defensive stops were third among all defensive tackles.
That’s a combo bad enough to scare any running back.
THE BAD NEWS
1. The definition of good news/bad news.
When coach Singletary called out Vernon Davis and deactivated him mid-game, their fates became intrinsically linked. Davis was the player the Coach was going to make an example out of and turn a waste of potential into devastating production.
An utterly immense talent, Davis is not so much a “bad news” as a tale of two players. On one hand, you have one of the most dominant receiving tight ends in the league. A guy who provides a mismatch for all covering defenders. A blocker who can drive back defensive ends 10 yards.
And on the other hand, you have a guy who gave up a ridiculous 12 penalties. Who dropped more passes (13) than any other tight end. And a guy so inconsistent with his blocking that he graded out with a -9.4 for his work in the run game. For such a big part of the San Francisco offense (he was targeted 116 times), it’s a concern that for all the good he can do he can have such a negative, drive-killing influence.
So maybe not so much a “bad news” player as one who makes you question: Does what he brings to the offense (13 touchdowns, to name but one thing) compensate for the mistakes he makes? I suspect 49ers fans will answer yes, but it’s something to watch if he can’t eradicate the errors.
2. Gold in name but not in nature.
When you’re playing as the free safety you need to put yourself in position to prevent plays, but far too often Dashon Goldson failed to do this.
It didn’t help that he missed 13 tackles (sixth-highest among safeties). And he had his share of woes in coverage, where he ranked as the worst coverage safety in the league. A fine example was the Jacksonville game in which David Garrard pinpointed this weakness and threw in his direction seven times for seven completions and 111 yards.
Goldson may be a better player for taking his lumps in his first year starting, but he’s going to have to make massive strides to not be the liability he was in ’09.
OUTLOOK
San Francisco has brought in some rookies to improve its offensive line, but how quickly they settle (and to what level they play) is anyone’s guess. Still, if it gets Adam Snyder out of the lineup, the offense is already a great deal better. You just have to wonder if the team has done enough to beat good teams, because beating up on the NFC West isn’t going to get anyone taking notice of the 49ers.
Target: 10-6
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