Five Questions with Neil Hornsby: Almost Week 1 edition
With the season almost ready to go, here’s another chapter on my quest to learn more from Pro Football Focus founder Neil Hornsby. I ask him five questions that interest me and he answers them — off the cuff, without his usual 10 hours spent poring over game tape.
This week, we talk Matt Leinart, the Jets’ so-called “3-4″ defense and NFL expansion.
Huzzah!
1. Are the Cardinals doing the right thing in reportedly parting ways with Matt Leinart?
We predicted the possibility of Matt Leinart not making it through the season at the start of July. Why? Because every year the Cardinals would have preferred for Leinart to be their man and every year he never came close to giving Kurt Warner a run for his money. To be fair, our doubts about these failings were tempered by just how good Warner was but when we did get to see Leinart, he only had one decent showing; the rest of the time he always failed to deliver.
I know some people feel he checks down very early — I’ve seen a bit of that myself — but what he really looks like to me is a guy trying too hard to do the right thing, someone who’s under too much pressure to perform and can’t handle it. I don’t think the Cards are good enough to win with him playing like this and if he doesn’t give it his best shot soon, I think he’s doomed.
With regard to Derek Anderson, in 2007, when the site was just a demo, we had Anderson graded as one of our worst QBs that year, despite him going to the Pro Bowl. Did we take some stick for that or what? This isn’t just me saying “we told you so,” this is the nature of the guy; he’s hugely inconsistent. One week he’ll be awful (2008 Week 3 at the Ravens), a few weeks later, great (2008 Week 6 versus the Giants). He’s one of those players who just blows hot and cold and you can’t seem to trust for more than a few games.
So in the pick-your-poison category I think Ken Whisenhunt is doing the right thing in choosing death by Anderson, as I do think he’ll at least give it a go. I’d rather go down swinging, I guess.
2: What’s your take on talk of expansion to 18 games?
I’m not sure many people love football more than me, but I’d leave the 18 games on the table if it was my call. I think the product, exactly as it is, works. The players’ negative attitude to the concept seals if for me. I’m aware it could be all just be posturing to make more money, but I’m going to take it at face value, which is: This sport is testing enough guys without banging an extra 12 percent more opportunities for injury on top.
3. Jonathan Vilma suffered a groin injury in last week’s exhibition game. Sounds like he’ll be fine, but how much would his absence affect the Saints’ defense?
I have no idea how they’d cope because, Vilma aside, this is not a good group. My First Impressions article already captures my concerns regarding Jonathan Casillas and Scott Shanle but then, in addition, trying to compensate for the loss of Vilma’s coverage ability on third down would be next to impossible. Marvin Mitchell would step in, I assume, and while you might actually gain something on run downs (Vilma’s run defense rating of -7.8 compared to Mitchell’s -0.3) they’d lose a huge amount underneath on third down (+14 against +0.8).
4. The Jets are noted for playing a 3-4 — but do they actually line up in that formation down after down?
I do hate this question, as for some reason it seems to raise emotions beyond its actual importance. At PFF we simply differentiate a DE from an OLB by asking the question, “Did he have his hand down?” If Calvin Pace has both hands up we put him down as an OLB. If not, we class him as a DE — and obviously this changes on a play-by-play basis. The same applied to Bryan Thomas, Vernon Gholston, Jamaal Westerman and Marques Murrell last year and will also apply to Jason Taylor (and anyone else they choose to bring in) in 2010. If there’s a better method to do it, I’m all ears.
Anyway, if you then add up the amount of DEs (as defined above), LBs and DBs on each play you’ll find the Jets play more 4-3 in base (and more four-man line overall) than 3-4. Does this really make them a 4-3 team? I don’t think so, they’re a real hybrid and I’d rather spend more trying to enjoy their skills than trying to pigeon-hole them.
5. Who’s going to be better: Chad Henne or Mark Sanchez?
My head tells me Henne but my gut tells me Sanchez. Up until Week 17 it wasn’t even close as the Jets made it in spite of Sanchez and the Dolphins won some games because of Henne. Then, in the playoffs, Sanchez started to come alive and his earlier habit of folding as soon as there was even a hint of pressure turned around and he actually threw his best stuff which people bearing down on him. Was this an Eli Manning style playoff purple patch, or was this the real Mark Sanchez? That’s the question I’m trying to answer and I think I saw enough to believe it was … just!
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