Fantasy: Analyzing and projecting AFC target distribution
To accurately compile projections, it is important to study target distribution to each position. Below is analysis of said target distributions for each team in the AFC. A chart showing all 2008 and 2009 data is at the bottom. The chart also includes 2010 projections.
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BLT — The Ravens absolutely abused the running back position in 2009, but expect that number to dip in 2010 after the addition of Anquan Boldin. Still, Ray Rice is going to attract a ton of footballs out of the backfield, which means Baltimore will be among the NFL leaders in pass attempts to running backs. The Ravens drafted a pair of tight ends, but they won’t make much of an impact in the pass game this year unless the incumbent Todd Heap suffers an injury.
BUF — The Bills were among the league leaders in passes to the running back in 2009 and that number should rise even higher in 2010. Out and not replaced is Terrell Owens at wide receiver, but in and ready to take on a ton of passes out of the backfield is rookie tailback C.J. Spiller. Shawn Nelson seemed to be in line for a bigger role this season, but will miss four games due to a substance-abuse-related suspension.
CIN — Carson Palmer and the Bengals have relied heavily on the wide receiver over the past two seasons and the additions of Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley, and Antonio Bryant (if he hangs around) mean that is unlikely to change in 2010. Jermaine Gresham was drafted to add a receiving threat at the tight end position and his presence should mean a few additional looks for the perennially underused tight end unit. Cedric Benson will be targeted more often this season, but Cincinnati will still end up in the bottom half of the league in passes to the running backs.
CLV — The Browns were one of only a few teams that had a target differential change of 10 percent or more last season. The change, as you can see in the chart, was a 10 percent decrease in looks for the tight end position. This can easily be traced to the team’s trade of Kellen Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay. The team signed Ben Watson this offseason, but don’t expect a return to the tight end-heavy offense. Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison will get their fair share of targets out of the backfield, which means Cleveland’s passing game will remain as one of the most reliant on the running back.
DEN — Despite the departure of heavily targeted Brandon Marshall, the Broncos will continue to be heavily reliant on the wide receiver position. Denver also traded away its best pass-catching threat at tight end in Tony Scheffler, which means the team’s tight end unit will end up as one of the most underused in the league. Running backs Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter won’t be relied on heavily, but they’ll see enough looks to end up just under league average as a unit.
HOU — Prior to his season-ending injury in Week 8, Owen Daniels was one of the most relied-on tight ends in 2009. Because none of his replacements could quite fill his shoes, targets to the position dropped off big time. In fact, check out this chart, which shows the team’s 2009 target differential with and without Daniels on the field.
| Pos. | With | Without |
| RB | 20% | 23% |
| WR | 53% | 64% |
| TE | 27% | 13% |
Expect a pretty decent hike in targets to Daniels, and the unit as a whole, in 2010. Arian Foster isn’t known for his pass catching, but Steve Slaton will be on the field enough to keep the Texans in the upper half of the league in passes to the running backs. Andre Johnson attracts close to 30 percent of the team’s targets on his own, but the wide receiver unit as a whole ranks relatively low in target distribution. The health of Daniels means another drop in 2010.
IND — Although Dallas Clark will be one of most targeted tight ends in the league, expect a slight decrease in targets to the position. This will come as a direct result of the logjam at wide receiver, where we could see more four-wide receiver sets in 2010. Joseph Addai showed outstanding hands last season, but could see a slight drop in looks with Donald Brown expected to eat into his workload. Overall, the running back unit will be one of the least used in the league. As was the case from 2008-to-2009, don’t expect Peyton Manning and Co. to change much in terms of target differential this season.
JAX — The Jaguars are one of the most balanced teams in the league in terms of target distribution. In fact, the projections you see below rank them at 17th in percentage of passes to the RB, 15th to the WR, and 13th to the TE. The tight end position saw an increase in looks last season, and that number should only rise in 2010 due to the emergence of Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller. The heavy use of Maurice Jones-Drew in the passing game keeps the RB unit afloat in this department. The talented, but young and unproven wide receiver unit will see a similar amount of looks to what we saw in 2009.
KC — When you throw Todd Haley (new coach), Matt Cassel (new quarterback), Jamaal Charles (replaced Larry Johnson at running back during the season), and Tony Gonzalez (traded to Atlanta) into a pot, it shouldn’t surprise you if you end up with big changes in target distribution. The Chiefs were among the most reliant on the tight end in 2008, but that figure dropped off by a whopping 15 percent last season after the trade of Gonzalez to Atlanta. The benefactors of this drop were running backs, who saw a 6 percent spike due to the midseason explosion of Charles. The team’s wide receiver unit jumped up 10 percent under Haley and is now one of the most relied-on in the league. The team didn’t make any moves that suggest a massive shift in any of these categories in 2010. The tight end unit will be near the basement of the league in targets, while wide receiver (which, by the way, includes Dexter McCluster) will rank among the most relied on.
MIA — The addition of Marshall will mean an increase in targets for the team’s wide receiver unit as a whole. The Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams duo will still see their share of looks out of the backfield, which means tight end is the position that will suffer. Miami already used its tight ends very little and the Anthony Fasano-Joey Haynos pair won’t demand any additional attention in 2010. The wide receiver and running back units, meanwhile, could both end up among the top 10 most relied on in the league.
NE — Watson is out, but the unappealing Alge Crumpler, moderately-appealing Rob Gronkowski, and possibly-TE2-material-appealing Aaron Hernandez are in at tight end. No team has used the tight end less than the Patriots over the past two seasons, but that could change in 2010. Although they will still be near the league basement in combined targets, the unit as a whole will see an increase of 4-5 percent this season. The team’s top five running backs are back from 2009 and there won’t be much of a change in role. Expect the below-average distribution of target to the RB position to stay the same. Although targets to the wide receiver position will dip in 2010, the Patriots will still be among the NFL leaders in this category. As if Randy Moss and Wes Welker don’t already require a significant chunk of the targets, the continued development of Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price guarantees this position will be heavily relied on for a long time.
NYJ — During the off-season, the Jets added wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Laveranues Coles and replaced running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington with LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight (maybe). Although the changes may seem significant, the team’s target distribution shouldn’t change much. Dustin Keller will remain heavily involved in the pass game and the tight end unit as a whole will end up near league average. The Jets did not throw to the running back very often last season and the departure of Washington means even fewer looks for the position. This leaves the talented group of wide receivers to handle near 61 percent of the targets, which would put them among the top 10 units.
OAK — Jason Campbell knows how to get the ball to his tight ends and he will have plenty of opportunities to do just that in Oakland. Zach (J.) Miller managed to put up fantasy-relevant numbers in 2009 despite playing on an offense that had a very hard time moving the ball through the air. Campbell isn’t Drew Brees, but he also isn’t JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders offense will be improved and will continue to lean on Miller, who will be one of the most targeted tight ends in the league again this year. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will command enough targets to put the running back unit in the top half of the league. The team’s less-than-impressive wide receiver unit will finish towards the bottom of the league in targets, especially considering that their projected top option, Chaz Schilens, is out indefinitely with another injury.
PIT — The Steelers traded away Holmes, but Mike Wallace will step into his role and the team also acquired a ton of options to replace him, including free agents Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle and rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Still, we should expect, at least, a small decrease in looks for the position. Rashard Mendenhall will see a few targets each week, but overall, the running back unit will be used very little in the passing game. Heath Miller will see a similar amount of targets to what he saw in 2009, which means the team’s tight ends will end up around league average in targets.
SD — It appears likely that Vincent Jackson will not play for San Diego in 2010, which means we could see a slight shift away from the wide receiver position. The Chargers already don’t throw to the receivers very often, so this won’t be a huge adjustment. They threw to the running back 6 percent less often last year, but were still among the league leaders in that department. They obviously like throwing to the position and that will not change with Darren Sproles and rookie Ryan Mathews in the backfield. Mathews is not known for his hands, but, in this offense, he will catch close to 35 balls. Antonio Gates will be heavily relied on as usual, and the tight end unit will be right around the top 10 in targets.
TEN — The Titans don’t have a superstar receiving option at tight end, but that didn’t stop them from relying heavily on Bo Scaife and company in 2010. Crumpler is gone, but Craig Stevens will pick up his share of the targets. The development of Jared Cook has not gone as planned, but he will chip in with a few looks, as well. Expect another season of Vince Young looking to his tight ends often. Chris Johnson the glowing exception, the Titans did not throw to the running back unit very often in 2009. That won’t change this year. The wide receiver unit has not changed at all and will be relied on as much as they were a season ago, which isn’t very much. Expect little change in the Titans target distribution.
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |||||||
| Pos | Team | Head Coach | Trg% | Head Coach | Trg% | Change | Head Coach | Trg% | Change |
| RB | BLT | John Harbaugh | 27% | John Harbaugh | 30% | 2% | John Harbaugh | 25% | -5% |
| TE | BLT | 16% | 16% | 0% | 17% | 1% | |||
| WR | BLT | 56% | 54% | -2% | 57% | 3% | |||
| RB | BUF | Dick Jauron | 26% | Dick Jauron/ Perry Fewell |
25% | 0% | Chan Gailey | 27% | 2% |
| TE | BUF | 18% | 15% | -3% | 16% | 1% | |||
| WR | BUF | 56% | 60% | 3% | 56% | -4% | |||
| RB | CIN | Marvin Lewis | 18% | Marvin Lewis | 17% | -1% | Marvin Lewis | 18% | 1% |
| TE | CIN | 15% | 14% | 0% | 16% | 2% | |||
| WR | CIN | 68% | 69% | 1% | 65% | -4% | |||
| RB | CLV | Romeo Crennel | 23% | Eric Mangini | 22% | -1% | Eric Mangini | 23% | 1% |
| TE | CLV | 29% | 19% | -10% | 20% | 1% | |||
| WR | CLV | 48% | 58% | 11% | 56% | -2% | |||
| RB | DEN | Mike Shanahan | 10% | Josh McDaniels | 16% | 7% | Josh McDaniels | 18% | 2% |
| TE | DEN | 21% | 16% | -5% | 15% | -1% | |||
| WR | DEN | 69% | 68% | -2% | 66% | -2% | |||
| RB | HOU | Gary Kubiak | 18% | Gary Kubiak | 22% | 4% | Gary Kubiak | 21% | -1% |
| TE | HOU | 20% | 19% | -2% | 23% | 4% | |||
| WR | HOU | 61% | 59% | -2% | 55% | -4% | |||
| RB | IND | Tony Dungy | 18% | Jim Caldwell | 15% | -3% | Jim Caldwell | 14% | -1% |
| TE | IND | 26% | 28% | 2% | 26% | -2% | |||
| WR | IND | 57% | 57% | 0% | 59% | 2% | |||
| RB | JAX | Jack Del Rio | 22% | Jack Del Rio | 20% | -2% | Jack Del Rio | 20% | 0% |
| TE | JAX | 18% | 21% | 3% | 22% | 1% | |||
| WR | JAX | 59% | 59% | -1% | 57% | -2% | |||
| RB | KC | Herman Edwards | 15% | Todd Haley | 21% | 6% | Todd Haley | 19% | -2% |
| TE | KC | 31% | 15% | -15% | 15% | 0% | |||
| WR | KC | 54% | 64% | 10% | 65% | 1% | |||
| RB | MIA | Tony Sparano | 24% | Tony Sparano | 22% | -2% | Tony Sparano | 22% | 0% |
| TE | MIA | 21% | 18% | -3% | 15% | -3% | |||
| WR | MIA | 56% | 60% | 5% | 62% | 2% | |||
| RB | NE | Bill Belichick | 21% | Bill Belichick | 17% | -4% | Bill Belichick | 18% | 1% |
| TE | NE | 12% | 10% | -2% | 14% | 4% | |||
| WR | NE | 67% | 72% | 5% | 67% | -5% | |||
| RB | NYJ | Eric Mangini | 21% | Rex Ryan | 16% | -5% | RexRyan | 15% | -1% |
| TE | NYJ | 22% | 23% | 1% | 23% | 0% | |||
| WR | NYJ | 56% | 61% | 5% | 61% | 0% | |||
| RB | OAK | Lane Kiffin/ Tom Cable |
25% | Tom Cable | 21% | -4% | Tom Cable | 21% | 0% |
| TE | OAK | 25% | 25% | 0% | 26% | 1% | |||
| WR | OAK | 49% | 54% | 5% | 52% | -2% | |||
| RB | PIT | Mike Tomlin | 15% | Mike Tomlin | 14% | -1% | Mike Tomlin | 14% | 0% |
| TE | PIT | 19% | 20% | 0% | 21% | 1% | |||
| WR | PIT | 66% | 67% | 1% | 64% | -3% | |||
| RB | SD | Norv Turner | 30% | Norv Turner | 24% | -6% | Norv Turner | 26% | 2% |
| TE | SD | 23% | 25% | 2% | 25% | 0% | |||
| WR | SD | 47% | 51% | 4% | 48% | -3% | |||
| RB | TEN | Jeff Fisher | 22% | Jeff Fisher | 20% | -3% | Jeff Fisher | 19% | -1% |
| TE | TEN | 28% | 26% | -2% | 26% | 0% | |||
| WR | TEN | 50% | 54% | 5% | 54% | 0% | |||
*Note: The Projected targets add up to 99 percent intentionally. This accounts for a few throw aways/spikes
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