Drafting “big play” wideouts in the mid to late rounds is kind of like proposing to Kirstie Alley right after she discovered Krispy Kreme. By the time you realize what you’ve done it’s too late to get the ring over the knuckle fat on that sausage link finger. Still the thought of a Devery Henderson or Mark Clayton turning up on an NFL Gamebreak hauling in that one 80 yard bomb that makes your entire week is sometimes too much for even the most conservative of owners.

Problem is most of these big play types are about as predictable as Courtney Love on a three day bender. For every Donte Stallworth highlight there’s 6 weeks in which you’d kill for Wes Welker’s slants and bubble screens. In other words reaching for WR sleepers among players who have made their hay on the big play is a risky proposition at best and as we’ll show below probably a recipe for disaster.

Looking at the numbers let’s define “Big Play Receivers” as those who average 16.0 ypc on a minimum of 30 receptions. From 2006-08 31 receivers met this criteria yet only 5 (16%) managed to rank higher in Fantasy Points the next year and two of those, Greg Jennings (2008) and Roddy White (2007) did so while targeted 66.7% and 114.1% more times respectively. In a moment we’ll break down these numbers even more to get a better handle on the risk/reward relationship of these receivers, but first let’s look at the logical reasons these type of wideouts struggle to improve or even repeat their performance.

1. It’s a Percentage Thing: Players who average 16.0+ ypc are obviously catching a good number of balls well upfield. As any “Passing by Distance” graphic will show over time passes that travel farther in the air will be completed less often then those that travel less distance in the air. This is why running backs can have 80% catch rates, but WR never come close to that. With less passes being thrown deep and those that are being difficult to complete it’s clear that a WR/QB combo that clicks on a number of these plays one year may be in for the dreaded regression to the mean and less success the next year. By way of example the aforementioned Devery Henderson was targeted 45.6% more often and caught 19 more balls than in 2008, but saw his fantasy rank drop 6 spots and his TD go from 3 to 2 as the big hookup was not there as often. Which leads us to our next point…
2. Adjustments: Current NFL defenses are big play averse. This is why, as Phil Simms pointed out in Sunday Morning Quarterback, there is no such thing as “double coverage” in the sense we know from our playground days. Instead teams keep safeties over the top to prevent the quick strike. These safeties “roll” to the deep receiver whether it be the opponents #1, #2, TE or RB which explains why Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith (Car.) can continually put up Top 10 numbers despite having the cast of “The Big Bang Theory” playing alongside them. Defenses will give up the underneath route while protecting against the “go” route again making it more difficult to consistently complete the long ball. And finally…
3. Negative Changes: Because “Big Play” guys are generally racking up a lot of fantasy points per reception/target any negative change in their situation from one year to the next could spell doom. A coaching or offensive philosophy change, a QB switch or an injury (their own or the QB) can result in seriously depleted numbers.

But now let’s look deeper to see how true these assertions really are. Below is a list of receivers who were +/- 10% of their targets from their “Big Play” (16.0+ ypc) year to the following year thereby eliminating those receivers who crashed and burned due to injury or some other factor beyond their control.

Of these 12 only 2, Santonio Holmes in 2007 and Vincent Jackson last year, improved in their Big Play Year+1. More importantly several of these players were spectacular busts or serious underachievers starting with Braylon Edwards in 2008 and Bernard Berrian in 2009. In addition, 4 other other players whose targets actually increased by more than 10% from their Big Play Year actually lost ground including Santonio Holmes in 2008 who lost 31 FP despite being targeted 34.1% more often than in 2007.

At this point we could produce more graphs and charts and show off our Middle School math skills, but the premise we believe is clear. Before you get gaga over that latest sleeper WR check out last year’s yards per catch. If it’s more than 16.0 you may want to do more research as chances are the buzz comes from a few monster plays that skewed the numbers and like those of us who’ve been saddled with the James Jetts and Don Beebes of the world know the real sleeper is hiding in another bed.

2009 Big Play Receivers (16.0+ ypc): Mike Wallace, Desean Jackson, Mohammed Massaquoi, Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Patrick Crayton, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Pierre Garcon, Brian Hartline, Chris Chambers, Robert Meachem.

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